JJeff Injury Updates

[Cyclonepride]

Tennessee averages 0.95 points per possession, which is the same as Arizona State. For comparison, Iowa State averages 1.03 points per possession. That's a pretty large difference

That's why I feel like we've got a great shot. Tennessee's defense is pretty darn good, but their offense struggles. If we slap on the defensive intensity that we've been playing with, there's a good chance that 60 points wins this for us.

Edit: provided that we keep them off the offensive boards reasonably well. That's their wild card.

 

[madguy30]

Are people just not sad enough for you or something? You and the other posters carrying the torch for the doomsday club seem to be really annoyed by optimism.

Everyone knows that losing Jefferson was a big deal. Some of us just refuse to play sad Charlie Brown music round the clock like y'all seem to want us to.

What in the actual **** are you talking about?

Summary:
-With JJ: ball movement great.
-Without: people stepped up but the ball movement isn't new.
-people were melting down in the first 10 of the first half because Ky was sharp and shots weren't falling.

You: Charlie Brown music!

 

[SolarGarlic]

Where did this "JJeff" come from? Hadn't heard anyone call him that all year, and CW dropped it a handful of times on 2 Guys like he's part of the squad.

 

[ianjbark3r]

What in the actual **** are you talking about?

Summary:
-With JJ: ball movement great.
-Without: people stepped up but the ball movement isn't new.
-people were melting down in the first 10 of the first half because Ky was sharp and shots weren't falling.

You: Charlie Brown music!

Thats not your tune at all, but okay.

 

[enisthemenace]

Strongly disagree with the bolded. ANY chance? C'mon.

Of course there’s a bit of hyperbole in what I posted, but assuming we get there and play, say, Michigan, size/rebounding is absolutely going to matter.

 

[Marcelason78]

Where did this "JJeff" come from? Hadn't heard anyone call him that all year, and CW dropped it a handful of times on 2 Guys like he's part of the squad.

Isn’t that what his teammates call him?

 

[Tailg8er]

Of course there’s a bit of hyperbole in what I posted, but assuming we get there and play, say, Michigan, size/rebounding is absolutely going to matter.

They can matter, sure. So we'd have maybe a 30-40% chance to pull it out - definitely higher than friggin 0.

 

[Cyched]

Tennessee averages 0.95 points per possession, which is the same as Arizona State. For comparison, Iowa State averages 1.03 points per possession. That's a pretty large difference

I’d be okay with a similar outcome to the last ASU game.

 

[cytor]

Of course there’s a bit of hyperbole in what I posted, but assuming we get there and play, say, Michigan, size/rebounding is absolutely going to matter.

Are you saying that size matters?

 

[SolarGarlic]

Isn’t that what his teammates call him?

Maybe? I don't know, that's why I was asking. Seems like it popped up last week. I'd never heard our media call him that, and Brend and CW both made multiple "JJeff" references on pods this week.

 

[Tailg8er]

Where did this "JJeff" come from? Hadn't heard anyone call him that all year, and CW dropped it a handful of times on 2 Guys like he's part of the squad.

Pretty sure it's a nickname he's had for awhile. Momcilovic mentioned it on a vid him & Tamin did with Ryan Hammer a couple weeks ago.

 

[Irish1]

I think the team in general "deferred" to Jefferson too many possessions. I think TJ played Jefferson too many minutes, and he should have had a regular rotation like the rest of the team.
It IS fact that the lane is more open when he's not in, and it IS fact we have better spacing and ball movement when he's not in. Some of that is a result of how much we deferred to him.
If he is able to play, I feel we can have the best of both worlds now that the team knows we are good without him!
I hope he can make it back before Michigan, I hope we aren't trying to play him if his injury is making him struggle too much.

 

[Frak]

I think Toure is the key. If he plays well, then everything works whether we have JJeff or not. When Toure is not an offensive threat, we need JJeff to take over. Admittedly there were games JJeff tried to take over and he pressed too hard, leading to turnovers or bad possessions. But we still won most of those games.

Bottom line, if JJeff can play we want him on the court. If he can't, then it puts a lot of pressure on Toure and Heise to make up for him.

I agree. If we had this Heise and Toure, we would have won KC and only dropped a couple in the regular season. We 100% need Jefferson to have a chance at beating Michigan. We can beat Tennessee without him, but if Heise and Toure regress back to the mean we’ll lose that one.

 

[Clonedogg]

I think with JJ out for a game or two it provided a new wrinkle for other teams to plan against, after a few games the scouting report will change. (Dead cat bounce)

In the long run we are better with JJ.

That being said, throughout the season JJ has played massive minutes when games were on the line, rarely coming out. With the injury they have proven that ISU is still a potent team without JJ for extended minutes, that's great.

 

[Frak]

You can read between the lines, he is coming back but I wonder if they hold him Friday and hope we can win, then play him hard on Sunday.

It may just be that he suits up Friday night but doesn’t play unless we really need him.

 

[KennyPratt42]

Tennessee averages 0.95 points per possession, which is the same as Arizona State. For comparison, Iowa State averages 1.03 points per possession. That's a pretty large difference

Not sure where you got your number but Tennessee averages 69.8 possessions per game and 79.4 points per game. If you have a different possessions per game number I'd be happy to see it. Their offensive rebounding rate might cause some variance depending if a play is recorded a put back or a new possession.

Regardless, Kentucky, St. John's, UCF, Oklahoma St, Colorado, Kansas, Creighton, Arizona St., TCU, Utah, Syracuse, Kansas St., Mississippi St., and West Virginia have worse offenses than Tennessee from an analytical perspective. If you want to say a few at the start of the list are debatable that's fine, but they are definitely not the worst P5 offense we've faced this year.

NCAA Basketball Stats - NCAA BB Team Points per Game | TeamRankings.com

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[AuH2O]

I’ve argued that we should have sat him a couple times this year if we’re being honest.

TJ is tough, but also a players coach somehow.

There were several things JJ was doing that was hurting ISU and his draft status.

He’s a great passer…in the post.
He’s a capable closer…when focused.

He’s a poor ball handler outside of open court.
Dribbling in/ backing down allows D’s to collapse and it’s where 90% of his team leading 5 to’s a game happen.
When he gets low that way and the d collapses he turns it over or throws up highly contested hand grenades.
It stagnates the O and clogs up the lane. Without Toure, TL, or an unaggressive Hy-Zeee shooting the 3 well, teams collapse on JJ, cover MM, and sag off the rest knowing Buchanan isn’t a threat outside of 5 ft.

Hy-Zeeee takes bigger guys out to the 3 line, makes them respect his shot and then blows by them or leaves room for a cutter.
Hy-Zee also moves the ball faster up top with his dribble / weave. Where speeding JJ up just adds to’s.


I think maybe TJ was hoping to showcase JJ ability to handle the ball…but imho it backfired.

I’ll assume that part of it is draft results do matter in showing kids development for recruiting knowing we can’t overpay them like other programs might. So making JJ a mid 1st rounder matters…you can’t sit him if that’s your goal.

And yet the analytics showed that over the course of the season ISU was massively better with Jefferson on the court.

ISU beat a dog turd team in round 1 by 30 without JJ. ISU played a great half without Jefferson against a 7 seed. I get the Kentucky name, but that was a mediocre team that didn’t have a point guard, and turned the ball over 20 times.

it isn’t some mystery. ISUs offense was great when Toure was aggressive, and it was bad when he would barely look to shoot and you have two guys, the guy guarding BB/Pleta and the guy guarding Toure camped in the lane.

But feel free to claim your observations are correct when analytics, TJ and simply watching our offense with and without an aggressive Toure are all wrong.

This team is still really good without JJ. But with JJ and aggressive versions of Toure and Heise are NC-level.

 

[Cyched]

It may just be that he suits up Friday night but doesn’t play unless we really need him.

Which honestly would be my preference. If we can get by TN with minimal minutes from JJ, go all in on the E8 game.

 

[bosco]

I’ve argued that we should have sat him a couple times this year if we’re being honest.

TJ is tough, but also a players coach somehow.

There were several things JJ was doing that was hurting ISU and his draft status.

He’s a great passer…in the post.
He’s a capable closer…when focused.

He’s a poor ball handler outside of open court.
Dribbling in/ backing down allows D’s to collapse and it’s where 90% of his team leading 5 to’s a game happen.
When he gets low that way and the d collapses he turns it over or throws up highly contested hand grenades.
It stagnates the O and clogs up the lane. Without Toure, TL, or an unaggressive Hy-Zeee shooting the 3 well, teams collapse on JJ, cover MM, and sag off the rest knowing Buchanan isn’t a threat outside of 5 ft.

Hy-Zeeee takes bigger guys out to the 3 line, makes them respect his shot and then blows by them or leaves room for a cutter.
Hy-Zee also moves the ball faster up top with his dribble / weave. Where speeding JJ up just adds to’s.


I think maybe TJ was hoping to showcase JJ ability to handle the ball…but imho it backfired.

I’ll assume that part of it is draft results do matter in showing kids development for recruiting knowing we can’t overpay them like other programs might. So making JJ a mid 1st rounder matters…you can’t sit him if that’s your goal.

Surprised that Nate was ok with letting a player that he's better than get showcased over him. True team player.

 

[MJ271]

Dribbling in/ backing down allows D’s to collapse and it’s where 90% of his team leading 5 to’s a game happen.

There's a lot going on with your post. But I feel like the bolded part here undermines any credibility the rest of it might have, because this stat is either lying, making things up, or just ridiculous hyperbole. Jefferson has averaged 2.5 turnovers per game this season, and 2.8 in conference play.

Jefferson's turnover rate this year for the whole season and for conference play alone are actually lower than Lipsey's respective turnover rates last season. I assume you also complained about Lipsey handling the ball too much last year?