It's a statistical game, my guess is that we've got a 20% chance of winning. That is, if we played them five times, i see us winning one of the games and losing four.
That said, here's my game plan for beating Texas:
1. Stop A.J. Abrams - Arkansas proved it could be done. Put a shadow on Abrams and don't let him off (Haluska? Garrett?). Whoever is assigned to Abrams has to think more about stopping Abrams than about scoring. THey have to be able to find him every time ISU shoots the ball, before there is a rebound/fast break opportunity. Help out defensively and extend the defense on Abrams on the perimeter, as they don't have another great shooting perimeter player. Make Justin Mason beat you. Playing great defense means expending a lot of energy, a good substitution pattern for whoever guards Abrams should be part of the game plan, keeping his defender from losing energy. Abrams beats teams in the second half, when defenses wear down. Make Abrams work hard at playing defense; move his man through lots of perimeter screens. Tire him down. Do whatever we can to slow Abrams. Unlike other teams, ISU has five scorers on the court at all times. Texas won't be able to defensively assign Abrams to a non-scorer.
2. Exploit the Post Offensively - Texas has two big post players: Dexter Pittman and Damion James (Connor Atchley is more of a JVB post player and will do a lot of drifting out to the perimeter). The Texas bench is thin. Playing Hamilton and Brackins to gether should create a mismatch: Brackins and Hamilton are both bigger than James. If James plays Brackins in the low post, Brackins should be able to shoot over him. If Brackins plays Pittman, he should be able to get around Pittman. If Brackins can get it going, Texas will have to start helping out on low post defense. When Texas helps out on Brackins, the other low post player (Hamilton, JVB, Thompson) has to be ready to score. Getting James or Pittman into foul trouble could really open the low post.
3. Get Back on Defense - Texas is very athletic. ISU isn't going to rebound well offensively, we know that from this year's games already. So ISU needs, instead, to stop the fast break and transition baskets by getting perimeter players back quickly to cut off the passing lanes for fast break opportunities, which takes away one of the biggest ways Texas exploits other defenses. Make Texas earn their points in half court sets. Make Pittman shoot the ball from the post. Make James settle for set shots. Stop the tranisition.
4. Don't be afraid to foul - (Except Abrams and maybe Pittman). Texas isn't a very good free throw shooting team. Playing aggressive defense, unless your name is Brackins, should be acceptable. We've got a comparatively deep bench. Use it.
5. Don't forget Connor Atchley - A big guy that drifts towards the three point line a lot, he'll be a matchup issue for whoever is assigned him (probably Staiger). Don't lose him around the three point line, be physical with him. Know where he's at, he's easy to out physical if you keep track of him. Make him play defense.
6. Shooting Premium - To beat a team as good as Texas, ISU must take smart shots. There will be open shots if you use the clock carefully, so use the clock and run the offense. Use all game parts: low post, dribble drive, perimeter screens to get and take HIGH QUALITY shots. Don't fall in love with the 3-point shot, or the low post. Mix it up. Don't get beat by tendencies.
