Do we beat BYU?
- Thread starter isuno1fan
- Start date
Here are some numbers that might ease some fears.
Torvik metrics for conference games, BYU's are away games and ISU are home:
Torvik metrics for conference games, BYU's are away games and ISU are home:
| AdjOE | AdjDE | |
| BYU | 123.9 | 104.8 |
| ISU | 121.9 | 89.2 |
Hopefully the refs let us play with some physicality.
I believe we will win at home, but we must not turn the ball over.
a lot of talk about trapping, which will absolutely play a role in the outcome. But I think a big point of focus needs to be chasing BYU off the 3-point line (fairly obvious, I know). ISU can't outshoot many teams, but has repeatedly shown an ability to score 80+ *mostly in the paint*. So, you feel better about rolling the dice trading 2s than you do hoping BYU misses even contested 3s (just about everything has been falling for them, lately). ISU's bigs are the key, not just on offense, but their help defense if the guards can force BYU's inside the arc. ISU can't get complacent on defense even if shots fall early, like they did against KSU. Otz's message really hasn't changed—when this team fully commits on defense, they have plenty of offense to beat even very good teams. When they let their feet off the gas, the offense can quickly turn into a mess.
Famous last words, but BYU's winning streak doesn't bother me so much. ISU caught KSU on its ascent if not its peak, but six straight in conference sounds more like due-for-regression-to-the-mean to me than "BYU is the second-best team in the conference because they had a late-season surge." January feels like a year ago, but I'd guess ISU will watch a lot of tape of Houston's beatdown of BYU, as well as Cincinnati's (great defensive teams). While we fans discussed the team's apparent lack of energy last week, players explicitly mentioned after Saturday's game that practices between Oklahoma State and Arizona were actually ratcheted up a notch (or two), and that certainly worked
Famous last words, but BYU's winning streak doesn't bother me so much. ISU caught KSU on its ascent if not its peak, but six straight in conference sounds more like due-for-regression-to-the-mean to me than "BYU is the second-best team in the conference because they had a late-season surge." January feels like a year ago, but I'd guess ISU will watch a lot of tape of Houston's beatdown of BYU, as well as Cincinnati's (great defensive teams). While we fans discussed the team's apparent lack of energy last week, players explicitly mentioned after Saturday's game that practices between Oklahoma State and Arizona were actually ratcheted up a notch (or two), and that certainly worked
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I picked ISU to win this but it will tough and it is a HUGE game:
1) It is at home where you have only lost once in the last 2 years. You don't lose at home if you are ready to make a run.
2) It matters significantly as to what seed ISU gets in NCAAs (2 or 3 or 4).
3) It matters in playing one less game (2-4 seed versus 5 seed) in Big XII tourney.
4) It matters in how the team feels about themselves in March.
Win this game and I feel really good about the next 5 weeks.
Lose this game and I think you are hoping against hope the rest of the way.
1) It is at home where you have only lost once in the last 2 years. You don't lose at home if you are ready to make a run.
2) It matters significantly as to what seed ISU gets in NCAAs (2 or 3 or 4).
3) It matters in playing one less game (2-4 seed versus 5 seed) in Big XII tourney.
4) It matters in how the team feels about themselves in March.
Win this game and I feel really good about the next 5 weeks.
Lose this game and I think you are hoping against hope the rest of the way.
You are exactly right on these points. After the OSU meltdown I said that playing AZ and BYU at full strength will essentially define this team's regular season. Winning both games would set the table and give huge momentum for a special run in KC and the Tourney.
BYU is a tough matchup for us, but if we play like we did against AZ we will be a tough match up for BYU. This game will certainly tip the scales for this season one way or the other. I expect them to win, as I did against AZ.
I'm not going to bet that, if I was forced to bet this game I'd take the 8.5 with BYU. I do think we win but very close final.
seems like free money to take BYU to cover, no? I'd love to be wrong but man I'm expecting this to be a battle tomorrow.
I would agree with you 100% but thats also why my gambling record isnt one to show...
Sure.
They will have to play the game of their lives to beat us at Hilton. We are getting healthy, are motivated, and are playing in Hilton. Zero losses in Hilton last year, and we will have only one loss there this year.
Should be a great game. Greater when we win, of course. We beat BYU.
Take BYU +8.5, cash out profit when we get down double digits in the first half, move original bet + profits over to live bet Iowa State ML
