Dis the Ducks

[DucksEatBeav]

There are plenty of programs that pull in high rated recruits every year and do nothing with them. Texas, Auburn, Tennessee and South Carolina (I haven't actually checked those two school's recruitings but i'd imagine most classes have a number of 4*'s), USC, UCLA, FSU, and on and on. Every single year they underperform compared to their recruiting class rankings, and every year they get beat by a team like ISU

You highlight the exceptions, not the rule. I don’t doubt that ISU can compete, but the whole stars don’t matter take is flat out wrong.

 

[RatherBeYachting]

What happens when, arguably the best player on the field Saturday for either team, Breece Hall, isn’t on those draft boards?

He will be. Since Hall is not draft eligible until after next season and was relatively unknown until recently he wasn’t included. After this fantastic season and with his ideal size he stands to be one of the top running back prospects for the 2022 draft.

 

[MWB76]

I think Florida losses to Oklahoma no matter what, but when you lose your three leading receivers who combined for 24 TD catches and other important pieces it’s gonna hurt. Imagine if Iowa State found out they had to play without Hall, Kolar, and Hutchinson.
The line went from -3 to +8.5 after the opt outs.

I saw someone asking about talent disparity earlier in the thread and where is it, well here are the Oregon and Iowa State draft prospects from the mock draft and big board consensus, which is pretty neat in that it combines all the prominent sources to create a consensus ranking of prospects: https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/colleges/2021/iowa-state-cyclones

View attachment 80133
I looked at the past years consensus big boards and they had Allen Lazard, Hakeem Butler, and David Montgomery all higher than they were actually drafted - so I don’t think there’s any anti ISU bias.
Here is Oregon’s for 2021, with the opt outs crossed out. I crossed out Verdell because I also don’t think he’s playing. For 2022 they have Thibodeaux third overall, and for 2023 Justin Flowe (injured) 6th, Noah Sewell 14th, and Verone McKinley 28th.
View attachment 80134

I couldn't find Holland, Graham, or Breeze on ESPN's defensive stats for Oregon in 2020. Did they even play this season?

 

[nrg4isu]

You highlight the exceptions, not the rule. I don’t doubt that ISU can compete, but the whole stars don’t matter take is flat out wrong.

The smartest dude I knew in college (National Merit Scholar, full scholarship, 35 ACT, etc) failed of school. Why? because he couldn't be bothered to go to class. This isn't isolated and it's not a new concept. We all know that this can and does happen in football programs as well. Is this widespread in all top programs? Of course not. What we're pointing out is that stars don't matter nearly as much as recruiting services (and fans of programs with lots of 4/5 star recruits) want them to.

 

[RatherBeYachting]

So here's the thing about those insurance policies. Oregon had the first prospect ever to collect on their insurance policy in Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. I don't believe Marshon Lattimore's insurance policy actually paid out because SF drafted him high and Ifo didn't get anywhere near what he would have made had he just been drafted mid rounds and done nothing else. It's obviously better to have it than not and you can never predict an injury.

Penei is a lock for the Top 10 and very likely Top 3 and has been called the greatest LT prospect of the last decade easily. After 2 years in college. It's not hyperbole either when you put on the tape.

Now in the case of someone like Brady Breeze, he left because someone offered him a job in the low 6 figures after graduating. He's likely not an NFL player, maybe a camp invite but someone who was a very good college football player.

The contrast between Penei and Brady is stark and nobody blames Penei or Jevon or Thomas or Brady for their decisions.

Thanks for the good explanation. Ifo Ekpre-Olomu is the perfect example. He was the first one to collect on the policy, that was the first year schools were allowed to pay for the insurance and he was insured as a first round pick. Career ending knee injury after a consensus first team All-America season, still got drafted in the seventh and ever played again. Ifo was the first one to actually collect the policy and it was just part of what he would have made on a rookie contract alone.

 

[Malty Flannel]

So, teams that recruit at an elite level don’t have 5* culture?

the ones that underperform with that talent don't.

 

[Malty Flannel]

You highlight the exceptions, not the rule. I don’t doubt that ISU can compete, but the whole stars don’t matter take is flat out wrong.

I agree with you there

 

[RatherBeYachting]

I couldn't find Holland, Graham, or Breeze on ESPN's defensive stats for Oregon in 2020. Did they even play this season?

They all opted out after the season was canceled for a second time and didn’t play this season. Graham originally was going into the previous draft, but came back for a chance at a championship. They had all graduated previously.

Here are their 2019 stats. Our top-3 returning tacklers, combined for 192 tackles, 10 TFL, 8 INT, 17 PD, 4 TD, 4 FR.

I personally prefer SportsReference: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/oregon/2019.html

 

[RatherBeYachting]

Imagine playing an entire SEASON with a kicker with an inability to kick off? Handicap that one for me, slappy.

Trust me, we can relate to kicker woes. We benched ours for a soccer player with a mustache after too many shanks. In 2011 and 2012 a man named Alejandro Maldonado was the most hated man in the state

It sounded to me like He’s hedging his bet with some ammo in case they get beat terribly. ToE fans are experts at this kind of thing.

No hedging, no pre-emptive excuses. They played without those guys this season, which is very different from Florida’s guys opting out a few practices before their game.

 

[DarkStar]

Yup, that’s why Alabama, Clemson, and tOSU are always in the CFP, because all those keyboard jockeys have no idea what they are talking about with respect to recruiting... lmao. Some of you all sound straight like doog fans. It’s hilarious.

ReCrUiTiNg DoEsN’T MatTeR

Recruiting absolutely does matter.

A coach that can evaluate and find tallent that matches the physical skills of what he wants out of each position group and is a cultural fit and not a locker room cancer is absolutely vital. Those results show up on gameday.

The opinion of recruiting and NFL draft projection websites are just plain clickbait garbage. Fans that think they are meaningful are just pigeons getting taken for a ride.

Get real about the CFP. It's a joke with a media driven predetermined outcome.

 

[RatherBeYachting]

The smartest dude I knew in college (National Merit Scholar, full scholarship, 35 ACT, etc) failed of school. Why? because he couldn't be bothered to go to class. This isn't isolated and it's not a new concept. We all know that this can and does happen in football programs as well. Is this widespread in all top programs? Of course not. What we're pointing out is that stars don't matter nearly as much as recruiting services (and fans of programs with lots of 4/5 star recruits) want them to.

This is exactly what Oregon fans used to say, and we even had the occasional 5-star and a handful of 4-star recruits every year. “Our three stars with the scouting and development of our coaches is just as good.” The we became consistent contenders and realized that wasn’t true.

Studies have shown the correlation. That is not up for debate. It doesn’t mean subpar recruiting teams can’t be successful, but as far as consistency only Wisconsin has bucked the trend. We see USC out recruit us all the time, and then beat them. Texas underachieves all the time. Those are the exceptions. Those schools have also won national titles in the last 20 years.

Cyclone fans don’t have to believe us, but if you want to compete even for conference championships on a regular basis you have to improve your recruiting significantly. Look at the last 10 years of Big-12 W-L records and then put their average recruiting rankings next to them. I bet there isn’t much deviation.

Here are the P-5 teams that won over 100 games in the previous decade: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, Wisconsin, Georgia. Other than Wisconsin all of those have been recruiting powerhouses.

Here are all the programs that have won a playoff game: Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, LSU, Clemson, Oregon. Here are the current recruiting rankings: 1 Alabama, 2 Ohio State, 3 Georgia, 4 LSU, 5 Clemson, 6 Oregon.

 

[DucksEatBeav]

Recruiting absolutely does matter.

A coach that can evaluate and find tallent that matches the physical skills of what he wants out of each position group and is a cultural fit and not a locker room cancer is absolutely vital. Those results show up on gameday.

The opinion of recruiting and NFL draft projection websites are just plain clickbait garbage. Fans that think they are meaningful are just pigeons getting taken for a ride.

There is enough data on this topic to fill the library of congress. The data speaks for itself.

Please take a look at each team that won their respective conferences in the power 5, then go check out the top 10 teams in the recruiting rankings. Pretty sturdy correlation there.

 

[AlaCyclone]

This is exactly what Oregon fans used to say, and we even had the occasional 5-star and a handful of 4-star recruits every year. “Our three stars with the scouting and development of our coaches is just as good.” The we became consistent contenders and realized that wasn’t true.

Studies have shown the correlation. That is not up for debate. It doesn’t mean subpar recruiting teams can’t be successful, but as far as consistency only Wisconsin has bucked the trend. We see USC out recruit us all the time, and then beat them. Texas underachieves all the time. Those are the exceptions. Those schools have also won national titles in the last 20 years.

Cyclone fans don’t have to believe us, but if you want to compete even for conference championships on a regular basis you have to improve your recruiting significantly. Look at the last 10 years of Big-12 W-L records and then put their average recruiting rankings next to them. I bet there isn’t much deviation.

Here are the P-5 teams that won over 100 games in the previous decade: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, Wisconsin, Georgia. Other than Wisconsin all of those have been recruiting powerhouses.

Here are all the programs that have won a playoff game: Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, LSU, Clemson, Oregon. Here are the current recruiting rankings: 1 Alabama, 2 Ohio State, 3 Georgia, 4 LSU, 5 Clemson, 6 Oregon.

We get it. It takes time. This is year 5 of a Reclamation Project.

As it is, ISU won the Big Xii Regular Season, has multiple All-Americans, 9 first team All-Big Xii players, a Heisman Finalist, a Doak Walker Finalist, a Mackey Finalist, a Unitas / O'Brien Semi-Finalist, Offensive and Defensive POY in Big Xii.

My point is that I expect recruiting to pick up! In the mean-time, ISU is doing mighty fine with what they have. Looking forward to the Fiesta Bowl! Maybe a strong performance there will improve recruiting from that part of the world. Hope so, at least.

Let's Go State!
Beat the Ducks!

 

[CloneGuy8]

There is enough data on this topic to fill the library of congress. The data speaks for itself.

Please take a look at each team that won their respective conferences in the power 5, then go check out the top 10 teams in the recruiting rankings. Pretty sturdy correlation there.

I guess I don't understand the point you're trying to make. Oregon has higher rated recruits than us. We get it, congrats. Half of our conference has higher rated recruits than us, yet we managed to beat every team in it this year. We have higher rated recruits than Louisiana and they beat us.

 

[DucksEatBeav]

I guess I don't understand the point you're trying to make. Oregon has higher rated recruits than us. We get it, congrats. Half of our conference has higher rated recruits than us, yet we managed to beat every team in it this year. We have higher rated recruits than Louisiana and they beat us.

You did not beat Okie St.

My point is, Jimmies and Joes matter. That is all. Also, this weird complex that only teams that are at a talent disadvantage have “5* culture” is laughable. We call it dooging. You never ever want to doog.

 

[CloneGuy8]

You did not beat Okie St.

My point is, Jimmies and Joes matter. That is all. Also, this weird complex that only teams that are at a talent disadvantage have “5* culture” is laughable. We call it dooging. You never ever want to doog.

I'm hungover, give me a break.

 

[RatherBeYachting]

We get it. It takes time. This is year 5 of a Reclamation Project.

As it is, ISU won the Big Xii Regular Season, has multiple All-Americans, 9 first team All-Big Xii players, a Heisman Finalist, a Doak Walker Finalist, a Mackey Finalist, a Unitas / O'Brien Semi-Finalist, Offensive and Defensive POY in Big Xii.

My point is that I expect recruiting to pick up! In the mean-time, ISU is doing mighty fine with what they have. Looking forward to the Fiesta Bowl! Maybe a strong performance there will improve recruiting from that part of the world. Hope so, at least.

Let's Go State!
Beat the Ducks!

After this game I will be wishing Iowa State all the best, both on the field and in the living rooms of talented teenage boys.

I’ll leave the topic alone, I’m being annoying. But for a Parthian shot I’d like to point out that Breece Hall is responsible for a lot of those awards and honors, and he’s one of the four 4-star recruits on the ISU roster.

 

[Kimber45]

So, teams that recruit at an elite level don’t have 5* culture?

the ones that underperform with that talent don't.

*USC enters the chat*

Seriously though, has anyone done less with more than RBU/USC. Perennial stable of blue chip RBs and not a whole lot to see on the field. Excellent university, wonderland location for recruits, not a five star culture post-Carroll.

Texas also has a penchant for star gaze recruiting. Like a monkey is picking the highest rated guy rather than the highly talented guy who fits their system.

I'm not trying to elbow into your argument. I think you both have valid points. I remember when the recruiting mantra of Oregon fans was "diamond in the rough" and who would be the next 3* LaMichael James. There is plenty of overlooked talent out there than can be molded into a very successful football program. A great example of that would be . . . Oregon.

On the other hand, guys like Thibodeaux just have natural born talents that can't be acquired in an offseason strength and conditioning program.

 

[peteypie]

So, teams that recruit at an elite level don’t have 5* culture?

Nobody said that, but our culture helped our 3☆ players outscore OUs 5 star players 58-57 on the year. Reason we are here is because of our culture, not our rankings

 

[peteypie]

After this game I will be wishing Iowa State all the best, both on the field and in the living rooms of talented teenage boys.

I’ll leave the topic alone, I’m being annoying. But for a Parthian shot I’d like to point out that Breece Hall is responsible for a lot of those awards and honors, and he’s one of the four 4-star recruits on the ISU roster.

And breece was a 3 star by a lot of services, and was behind a 4 star RB on our roster from the same year. Jimmie and Joe's do matter, but I feel Campbell is finding guys in the 3 star ranks that he can easily turn into 4 and 5 star talent