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Bracketology 2024

Sigmapolis said:
I hate that the committee accounts for injuries.

It's too squishy, difficult to remember, and impossible to make fair comparisons.

You are what your record says you are. Staying healthy is part of the game.

A great player who is hurt 70% of the time isn't a great player. Health is a skill in itself.

Sure, luck factors in, but luck also factors in if you grow up to be 5'10" or 7'2". That's life.
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Also it’s not possible for the committee to know everyone who played in all teams games. They would only know a player missed a game if it was publicized by the media and a national story

For example, I would be surprised if the committee knew we didn’t have Ward (our backup C) for the 3 games in Orlando.

It’s more objective to not consider injuries at all
 
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Sigmapolis said:
I hate that the committee accounts for injuries.

It's too squishy, difficult to remember, and impossible to make fair comparisons.

You are what your record says you are. Staying healthy is part of the game.

A great player who is hurt 70% of the time isn't a great player. Health is a skill in itself.

Sure, luck factors in, but luck also factors in if you grow up to be 5'10" or 7'2". That's life.
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I think we are officially seeing it this year and going to see it in the future where coaches are planning on using it as an excuse for extremely tough games. If a guy is dinged up and you have an upcoming game at a top 5 opponent, sit him and then say said guy didn't play we weren't at full strength.
 
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NiceMarmot said:
Maybe they should do it that way, but they definitely do not. Teams are placed into the bracket based on distance, avoiding conference rematches, avoiding regular season rematches in round 1, and then regional balance. Here's how they do it.

www.ncaa.com

How the field of 76 DI men’s teams is picked for March Madness

The NCAA’s guide to how the 76 teams are chosen, seeded and bracketed for the Division I men's basketball tournament every season.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com
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Somewhere around covid they dropped trying to keep everyone close to home (for placing into regions) and I thought that continued still. Guess not!
 
Dream day tomorrow (Bold are most important IMO, listed by viewing time as well):

ISU beats KSU
Villanova beats Creighton
Kansas beats Houston
Tennessee beats Kentucky
Xavier beats Marquette
Tech beats Baylor
UNC beats Duke

By 7:30 PM tomorrow night, we'll have a pretty strong feel for ISU's seed line possibility. If any team has to jump ISU, I want it to be Duke. Because if the 8th spot is taken by Kansas or Baylor, we can't be in the Midwest region.

Although, being the 3 seed in the Midwest with Duke as the 2 seed (playing in Detroit) is better IMO than being the 2 seed in the East and having to play Duke as the 3-seed (playing in Boston)
 
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cyfan92 said:
Dream day tomorrow (Bold are most important IMO, listed by viewing time as well):

ISU beats KSU
Villanova beats Creighton
Kansas beats Houston
Tennessee beats Kentucky
Xavier beats Marquette
Tech beats Baylor
UNC beats Duke

By 7:30 PM tomorrow night, we'll have a pretty strong feel for ISU's seed line possibility. If any team has to jump ISU, I want it to be Duke. Because if the 8th spot is taken by Kansas or Baylor, we can't be in the Midwest region.

Being the 3 seed in the Midwest with Duke as the 2 seed (playing in Detroit) is better IMO than being the 2 seed in the East and having to play Duke as the 3-seed (playing in Boston)
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I think I'd rather Arizona jump to a 1 seed and then isu gets the 2 in the west.

Not sure if they have the resume for a 1, but we've all seen where the name on the jersey matters
 
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clone52 said:
Not directly, but people were saying that Non-con strength of schedule was given twice as much weight as overall SOS. Something used as a last resort tiebreaker is not given much weight at all.

Seems like we might be in agreement.
1) Non-con SOS might be the decider between 2 otherwise equivalent teams.
2) Non-con SOS is never going to move a team down more than 1 or 2 spots on the overall seed line.
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That isn't what I said. I said Non-con SOS was given twice as much weight as Conference SOS. I say this because on the Nitty Gritty sheets they list Non-con (NET&RPI)SOS and Overall (NET&RPI)SOS (non-con + conf) instead of listing Non-con SOS and Conf SOS. They also list the Non-con and overall NET and RPI rankings.

So Non-con is in the numbers twice - once alone and once as part of overall, while the conference is only in the numbers once - in the overall.
 
clone52 said:
I would agree with you on putting Iowa State over Baylor, but I can see his point somewhat.

Fact is, Baylor and Iowa State have similar Q1/Q2 metrics. you can nitpick either way. Results based metrics are a split too. Baylor better KPI and ISU better SOR. Iowa State has better predictive metrics. BPI of 9 and POM of 11. Baylor is 13 in both.

I'd go Iowa State because of their better win % in q1a (5-4 versus 5-6), but if someone wanted to say that the Head to Head tips it to a too close to call and then give Baylor the edge due to SOS, I couldn't be that made.

If the roles were reversed, I'd think we'd all be arguing in favor of Iowa State.

Him having Marquette at a 2 seed is more egregious. Right now, they are clearly below Baylor and Iowa State, unless you account for Kolek being hurt and ignore that Ward missed games for Iowa State and Langston Love missed games for Baylor.

Heck, North Carolina doesn't really stand above Iowa State and Baylor either. 6-4 Q1, 6-2 Q2, Results metrics 2/2 and predictive metrics of 11/8. Iowa State and Baylor have just as good of a resume as UNC.
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Baylor getting Kansas in the quarters gives one of them a really good win next Friday. I'd think we'd need to win the semis to stay ahead of Baylor if we match up again. Our quarter will likely be Q1 just not a headliner.
 
Sigmapolis said:
I hate that the committee accounts for injuries.

It's too squishy, difficult to remember, and impossible to make fair comparisons.

You are what your record says you are. Staying healthy is part of the game.

A great player who is hurt 70% of the time isn't a great player. Health is a skill in itself.

Sure, luck factors in, but luck also factors in if you grow up to be 5'10" or 7'2". That's life.
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Do they also devalue wins over teams that have a key player out?
 
Cyforce said:
Baylor getting Kansas in the quarters gives one of them a really good win next Friday. I'd think we'd need to win the semis to stay ahead of Baylor if we match up again. Our quarter will likely be Q1 just not a headliner.
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i think (could be wrong) the only way Baylor and KU would face each other in the quarters is if KU beats Houston, we beat KSU and TT beats Baylor.

Not likely all those happen IMO.
 
Cyowa 14 said:
I don't think so. It all depends on who finishes 3rd in the conference. If Kansas beats Houston and Texas Tech beats Baylor...Kansas, Baylor and Tech would all be 11-7 and in 3rd. We are 1-0 vs Kansas, 1-0 vs Tech and 0-1 vs Baylor. Houston would be 0-2 vs Kansas, 1-0 vs Baylor and 1-0 vs Tech. Not sure how to sort that out
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Winning percentage vs. the group. ISU would get the nod for being 2-1 (.667) while UH is 2-2 (.500) vs. the group.
 
NiceMarmot said:
Related to some of the chatter in here about NCSOS, I've built a simple little regression model to help me in seeding teams when I build my bracket. So I've looked at one-to-one simple correlation for metrics on the committee teamsheets to what the final seed list was for the 2022 and 2023 tournaments. NCSOS typically doesn't correlate to a team's spot on the seed list. Not saying that couldn't change this year with new committee members, but in the past, I think it has factored in more for deciding who those final at-large spots are moreso than it does for seeding teams safely in the field.

View attachment 125119
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It is good to see that SOR correlates much, much more than SOS. But it is still disappointing to see that NC SOS correlates almost twice as much as overall SOS. That was really the only concern I was having.
 
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Cyowa 14 said:
I don't think so. It all depends on who finishes 3rd in the conference. If Kansas beats Houston and Texas Tech beats Baylor...Kansas, Baylor and Tech would all be 11-7 and in 3rd. We are 1-0 vs Kansas, 1-0 vs Tech and 0-1 vs Baylor. Houston would be 0-2 vs Kansas, 1-0 vs Baylor and 1-0 vs Tech. Not sure how to sort that out
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gotta use the trusty MRed seed generator which has all the tiebreakers baked in. so helpful

mred's Big 12 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker

Big 12 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers
bball.notnothing.net
 
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dahliaclone said:
i think (could be wrong) the only way Baylor and KU would face each other in the quarters is if KU beats Houston, we beat KSU and TT beats Baylor.

Not likely all those happen IMO.
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Unless Kansas beats Houston i think they are locked into the 6 unless BYU loses tomorrow. That's why I say Baylor could get a headliner win in the quarters while we get another Q1 in TCU.
 
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VeloClone said:
That isn't what I said. I said Non-con SOS was given twice as much weight as Conference SOS. I say this because on the Nitty Gritty sheets they list Non-con (NET&RPI)SOS and Overall (NET&RPI)SOS (non-con + conf) instead of listing Non-con SOS and Conf SOS. They also list the Non-con and overall NET and RPI rankings.

So Non-con is in the numbers twice - once alone and once as part of overall, while the conference is only in the numbers once - in the overall.
Click to expand...

And none of that means that the committee gives non-con SOS more weight.
 
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dahliaclone said:
i think (could be wrong) the only way Baylor and KU would face each other in the quarters is if KU beats Houston, we beat KSU and TT beats Baylor.

Not likely all those happen IMO.
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If there's a 4 way tie for 4th
Tech loss tomorrow still gets the 4 seed beat BYU, beat Kansas.

BYU with a win goes 5, beat TCU and Kansas, lost to Tech.

Kansas gets 6th over TCU, lost BYU and Tech, beat TCU.

TCU needs a win tomorrow to get in the 10-8 4 way but lose all the tiebreakers.

I guess BYU could lose tomorrow and fall below Kansas but they should be heavy favorites.
 
cyfan92 said:
Dream day tomorrow (Bold are most important IMO, listed by viewing time as well):

ISU beats KSU
Villanova beats Creighton
Kansas beats Houston
Tennessee beats Kentucky
Xavier beats Marquette
Tech beats Baylor
UNC beats Duke

By 7:30 PM tomorrow night, we'll have a pretty strong feel for ISU's seed line possibility. If any team has to jump ISU, I want it to be Duke. Because if the 8th spot is taken by Kansas or Baylor, we can't be in the Midwest region.

Although, being the 3 seed in the Midwest with Duke as the 2 seed (playing in Detroit) is better IMO than being the 2 seed in the East and having to play Duke as the 3-seed (playing in Boston)
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Curious, why do we care if Tennessee beats Kentucky?
 
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