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Bracket Predictions 2025-26

Even though we are a 2 seed on here, I have been really liking this person's brackets and seedings. They make sense. Should we be a 1 seed? Probably, but I'm not gonna ***** about being the top 2 seed at the moment.

fivestarbracketology.com

5-Star Bracketology

Compare at Bracket Matrix: 2026 Bubble Watch, 3/15 AM update HERE
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I tried searching but I cannot find a good source for historical records mid season.

Presuming we win Monday we will be undefeated entering the new calendar year. That list would typically be small each year.

It would be interesting to see the average seed and lowest seed of that population over the last decade or so.

Anyone know a good source for such data?
 
Allikat said:
I tried searching but I cannot find a good source for historical records mid season.

Presuming we win Monday we will be undefeated entering the new calendar year. That list would typically be small each year.

It would be interesting to see the average seed and lowest seed of that population over the last decade or so.

Anyone know a good source for such data?
Click to expand...
I don't post very often but took this as a fun little exercise on a Sunday morning! For the purposes of deciding who is undefeated, I ignored non-P5/Gonzaga and a few other exceptions from their era (San Diego State in the MW, UConn and Houston in the American, etc). So, teams like Wichita State in the MVC I didn't include.

I have no idea what any of this actually means but basically 75% of teams that are undefeated on 01 January go on to be top 3 seeds in March. It's worth noting that SMU in 2016 was one of the teams not to make the tourney, but they were ineligible due to NCAA sanctions, so really only three teams didn't make the tournament after entering January undefeated. Lastly, I should also say, although I didn't record this, broadly the teams that were below 4 seeds ultimately were not highly ranked undefeated teams on January 1. Teams undefeated and in the Top 5 on 01 January were almost exclusively Top 3 seeds in March.

I also included undefeated teams later in Jan and Feb; as you can imagine, the odds of success go way up for teams that stay unbeaten.

Spreadsheet linked for anyone who wants to have a go: NCAA Undefeated Records.xlsx

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CBS Sports revealed it's latest so-called bracket. I'm not going to link it, to avoid rewarding it with any additional traffic.

I can live with U-M placed 1 overall ahead of Arizona, because (as summary notes) metrics slightly favor Michigan. It's the remainder of choices and ESPECIALLY some regional placement that's out of whack.

I doubt any reliable bracket expert would have Vandy ahead of BOTH UConn and Duke at this stage, and not have either of those in the East. (I have other problems with it, but that's for starters).

Here's a screenshot of top 2 lines.

Screen Shot 2026-01-12 at 3.32.35 PM.png
 

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cyclones500 said:
CBS Sports revealed it's latest so-called bracket. I'm not going to link it, to avoid rewarding it with any additional traffic.

I can live with U-M placed 1 overall ahead of Arizona, because (as summary notes) metrics slightly favor Michigan. It's the remainder of choices and ESPECIALLY some regional placement that's out of whack.

I doubt any reliable bracket expert would have Vandy ahead of BOTH UConn and Duke at this stage, and not have either of those in the East. (I have other problems with it, but that's for starters).

Here's a screenshot of top 2 lines.

View attachment 166045
Click to expand...

I don't think Vandy is the problem. Arizona in the south region would never happen. San Jose is closer than Houston. With that fixed, Iowa State gets the south and Vandy gets the East.

Team: Net, Kenpom, Torvik, KPI, SOR, WAB, BPI
Vandy: 7, 5, 3, 2, 6, 5, 13
Duke: 4, 8, 13, 7, 5, 4, 1
UConn: 8, 9, 5, 6, 4, 2, 10
Purdue: 5, 4, 6, 3, 7, 8, 7

The only metric that Duke is clearly ahead of Vandy is ESPN BPI and it appears to be an outlier. Duke does have more Quad 1 and 1a stuff, though.
UConn and Vandy are close.
Purdue and Vandy are very close.

You could easily make an argument putting those 4 teams in any order. The main thing that puts UConn and Duke clearly ahead of Vandy is the name on the front of the Jersey. That said, given their current resume's I'd probably go Duke - Vandy - Uconn - Purdue
 
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cyclones500 said:
CBS Sports revealed it's latest so-called bracket. I'm not going to link it, to avoid rewarding it with any additional traffic.

I can live with U-M placed 1 overall ahead of Arizona, because (as summary notes) metrics slightly favor Michigan. It's the remainder of choices and ESPECIALLY some regional placement that's out of whack.

I doubt any reliable bracket expert would have Vandy ahead of BOTH UConn and Duke at this stage, and not have either of those in the East. (I have other problems with it, but that's for starters).

Here's a screenshot of top 2 lines.

View attachment 166045
Click to expand...
I usually run under the assumption that no one is putting all that much thought into regions at this point. Maybe I am wrong.
 
clone52 said:
I don't think Vandy is the problem. Arizona in the south region would never happen. San Jose is closer than Houston. With that fixed, Iowa State gets the south and Vandy gets the East.

Team: Net, Kenpom, Torvik, KPI, SOR, WAB, BPI
Vandy: 7, 5, 3, 2, 6, 5, 13
Duke: 4, 8, 13, 7, 5, 4, 1
UConn: 8, 9, 5, 6, 4, 2, 10
Purdue: 5, 4, 6, 3, 7, 8, 7

The only metric that Duke is clearly ahead of Vandy is ESPN BPI and it appears to be an outlier. Duke does have more Quad 1 and 1a stuff, though.
UConn and Vandy are close.
Purdue and Vandy are very close.

You could easily make an argument putting those 4 teams in any order. The main thing that puts UConn and Duke clearly ahead of Vandy is the name on the front of the Jersey. That said, given their current resume's I'd probably go Duke - Vandy - Uconn - Purdue
Click to expand...
Reading your assessment, I agree I probably knee-jerked at least a little regarding Vanderbilt. But the regional placement definitely threw me off-course, maybe that's what made Vandy position seem "more jarring." You're right, Arizona would be in West, ISU in South, under CBS curve as it's presented.
 
Cyclonepride said:
This seems like a minefield of a region

View attachment 166130
Click to expand...

Interesting. I'm trying to think of what kind of team would provide the worst matchup for Iowa State and I'm not sure what type it would be. Still need to learn that. With how Michigan has been destroying teams, then as a 2 seed is scary. Illinois also seems underseeded as a 4.
Maybe the scariest is playing an undefeated Miami, Ohio in round 2.
 
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clone52 said:
Interesting. I'm trying to think of what kind of team would provide the worst matchup for Iowa State and I'm not sure what type it would be. Still need to learn that. With how Michigan has been destroying teams, then as a 2 seed is scary. Illinois also seems underseeded as a 4.
Maybe the scariest is playing an undefeated Miami, Ohio in round 2.
Click to expand...
I'm seeing three teams capable of a deep run (Michigan, BYU, Illinois) and then yeah, Miami Ohio sitting there in the round of 32 as a potentially tough 8/9.
 
clone52 said:
Interesting. I'm trying to think of what kind of team would provide the worst matchup for Iowa State and I'm not sure what type it would be. Still need to learn that. With how Michigan has been destroying teams, then as a 2 seed is scary. Illinois also seems underseeded as a 4.
Maybe the scariest is playing an undefeated Miami, Ohio in round 2.
Click to expand...
Good thing Miami would lose to St Louis by double digits.

That St Louis offense is a far bigger threat than anything Miami can do.
 
clone52 said:
Interesting. I'm trying to think of what kind of team would provide the worst matchup for Iowa State and I'm not sure what type it would be. Still need to learn that. With how Michigan has been destroying teams, then as a 2 seed is scary. Illinois also seems underseeded as a 4.
Maybe the scariest is playing an undefeated Miami, Ohio in round 2.
Click to expand...
Plus those tickets in Chicago would be insane. Just make the 3 seed Purdue to really make our eyes bleed
 
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