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Big 12 Final Standings Computer Projection

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Dale

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Mar 5, 2010
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The past couple years around this time, I've run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations on the remainder of the Big 12 season, using Massey's rankings/win percentages. I've done it again this year, and here are all the scenarios with at least a 1% chance of happening:

Kansas outright: 55%
Baylor outright: 16%
Kansas/Baylor tie: 12%
Three-way (or more) tie: 5%
West Virginia outright: 4%
Kansas/WV tie: 4%
Baylor/WV tie: 2%
Kansas/ISU tie: 1%
Iowa State outright: 1%
other: 1%

Overall, Kansas has a 76% chance of keeping the Big XII title streak going. If Iowa State had lost in The Phog, it would have been 91%. (Good job, us.)

Iowa State's odds of winning/sharing the title are 4% -- actually a little higher than they were when I did this around the same time last year (3%). Here's ISU's breakdown by final position (not breaking ties):

1st: 4%
2nd: 14%
3rd: 24%
4th: 31%
5th: 17%
6th: 7%
7th+: 3%
 
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http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=mbb

1. Kansas (15 - 3) Defeated Baylor based on record against #4 teams.
2. Baylor (15 - 3) Lost to Kansas based on record against #4 teams.
3. West Virginia (12 - 6)
4. Kansas State (10 - 8)
5. Iowa State (9 - 9) Defeated TCU based on record against #1 teams.
6. TCU (9 - 9) Lost to Iowa State based on record against #1 teams.
7. Oklahoma State (7 - 11)
8. Texas Tech (6 - 12)
9. Texas (4 - 14)
10. Oklahoma (3 - 15)
 
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Dale said:
The past couple years around this time, I've run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations on the remainder of the Big 12 season, using Massey's rankings/win percentages. I've done it again this year, and here are all the scenarios with at least a 1% chance of happening:

Kansas outright: 55%
Baylor outright: 16%
Kansas/Baylor tie: 12%
Three-way (or more) tie: 5%
West Virginia outright: 4%
Kansas/WV tie: 4%
Baylor/WV tie: 2%
Kansas/ISU tie: 1%
Iowa State outright: 1%
other: 1%

Overall, Kansas has a 76% chance of keeping the Big XII title streak going. If Iowa State had lost in The Phog, it would have been 91%. (Good job, us.)

Iowa State's odds of winning/sharing the title are 4% -- actually a little higher than they were when I did this around the same time last year (3%). Here's ISU's breakdown by final position (not breaking ties):

1st: 4%
2nd: 14%
3rd: 24%
4th: 31%
5th: 17%
6th: 7%
7th+: 3%
Click to expand...

I'm guessing our odds would be significantly better if we hadn't already finished with KU. We have to rely on other teams beating them, and the rest of the Big 12 has been less than stellar at doing that for quite some time.
 
Cyclonepride said:
I'm guessing our odds would be significantly better if we hadn't already finished with KU. We have to rely on other teams beating them, and the rest of the Big 12 has been less than stellar at doing that for quite some time.
Click to expand...

If the ISU/KU game at Hilton were still outstanding, ISU's odds of winning/tying for the title would go up to 10%, and KU's would go down to 65%. (Actually probably even more of a chance for ISU, since that game's also affects Massey's ratings.)

If ISU had swept KU, Iowa State's odds would be up to 21%, and Kansas would have a 50/50 shot to continue their title sweep.
 
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Winning at Kansas State would absolutely be massive. It could also be the difference in playing someone like TCU or Okie State instead of Kansas State again in the Thursday B12 tourney game.
 
Please continue to think this team is lost and has no shot at the tournament. (Reverse psychology)...
 
Update after this past week's games:

Kansas outright: 55%
Baylor outright: 17%
Kansas/Baylor tie: 16%
Kansas/WV tie: 4%
Three-way (or more) tie: 3%
West Virginia outright: 3%
Other: 1%

Overall, Kansas has a 76% chance of keeping the Big XII title streak going. Not surprisingly, tonight's KU/WV game has a big impact: KU's odds rise to 88% if they win and drop to 63% if they lose.

Iowa State's odds of winning/sharing the title -- mostly in a multi-way tie scenario -- are a little under half a percent. Here's ISU's breakdown by final position (not breaking ties):

1st: 0.4%
2nd: 3%
3rd: 14%
4th: 54%
5th: 19%
6th: 8%
7th+: 3%

And ISU's breakdown by final conference record:

13-5: 1%
12-6: 7%
11-7: 22%
10-8: 34%
9-9: 26%
8-10: 9%
7-11: 1%
 
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MartinCy said:
That'd be hot if we could finish really strong and avoid the 11:30 AM game on Quarterfinal Thursday of the Big 12 tourney ;)
Click to expand...

It will be extremely difficult to finish in the #3 spot unless we win at Morgantown. This team could finish 12-6 but with two losses to WVU they would still be in the #4-#5 slot.
 
I just hope they finish strong. Full disclosure ... Before the KU game I was in the "NIT" camp.

I really enjoyed Saturday's game. Only 3 more home games with what is probably the best trio of senior guards we've ever had. At least they'd be in the debate.
 
jkclone said:
http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=mbb

1. Kansas (15 - 3) Defeated Baylor based on record against #4 teams.
2. Baylor (15 - 3) Lost to Kansas based on record against #4 teams.
3. West Virginia (12 - 6)
4. Kansas State (10 - 8)
5. Iowa State (9 - 9) Defeated TCU based on record against #1 teams.
6. TCU (9 - 9) Lost to Iowa State based on record against #1 teams.
7. Oklahoma State (7 - 11)
8. Texas Tech (6 - 12)
9. Texas (4 - 14)
10. Oklahoma (3 - 15)
Click to expand...

That means we go 2-4 to end the year. I just don't see that.
 
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