Big 12 Final Standings Computer Projection

[MartinCy]

OSU, TCU and at TT, with the Baylor as a toss up. I think we get one of the latter two.

I think we go 1-1 @KState and @TTech.

1-1 vs Baylor and vs Ok State

W vs TCU and L vs WVU.

So that has us at a 3-3 finish to go 10-8 overall in conference play. 1 win in KC and we likely get a 7 seed in the tourney... maybe a chance at a 6 seed but we probably need to win 5 more for that.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Update after this past week's games:

Kansas outright: 55%
Baylor outright: 17%
Kansas/Baylor tie: 16%
Kansas/WV tie: 4%
Three-way (or more) tie: 3%
West Virginia outright: 3%
Other: 1%

Overall, Kansas has a 76% chance of keeping the Big XII title streak going. Not surprisingly, tonight's KU/WV game has a big impact: KU's odds rise to 88% if they win and drop to 63% if they lose.

Iowa State's odds of winning/sharing the title -- mostly in a multi-way tie scenario -- are a little under half a percent. Here's ISU's breakdown by final position (not breaking ties):

1st: 0.4%
2nd: 3%
3rd: 14%
4th: 54%
5th: 19%
6th: 8%
7th+: 3%

And ISU's breakdown by final conference record:

13-5: 1%
12-6: 7%
11-7: 22%
10-8: 34%
9-9: 26%
8-10: 9%
7-11: 1%

The 10-8 through 13-5 percentage summed up...

= 64%

Plus a 50-50 game at 9-9 in the opening round of the Big 12 tournament...

64% + 26% * 0.5 = 77%

...is roughly where I put our chances to make the NCAA tournament, too.

Funny how these work out.

With a 0.500 conference record, I think we could play our way in with 1-2 in KC. With a losing one, I think we are screwed unless we win the automatic bid.

 

[ca4cy]

Update after this past week's games:

Kansas outright: 55%
Baylor outright: 17%
Kansas/Baylor tie: 16%
Kansas/WV tie: 4%
Three-way (or more) tie: 3%
West Virginia outright: 3%
Other: 1%

Overall, Kansas has a 76% chance of keeping the Big XII title streak going. Not surprisingly, tonight's KU/WV game has a big impact: KU's odds rise to 88% if they win and drop to 63% if they lose.

Iowa State's odds of winning/sharing the title -- mostly in a multi-way tie scenario -- are a little under half a percent. Here's ISU's breakdown by final position (not breaking ties):

1st: 0.4%
2nd: 3%
3rd: 14%
4th: 54%
5th: 19%
6th: 8%
7th+: 3%

And ISU's breakdown by final conference record:

13-5: 1%
12-6: 7%
11-7: 22%
10-8: 34%
9-9: 26%
8-10: 9%
7-11: 1%

60%+ shot at 10 or more wins, which pretty much locks us into the dance. I'd be very happy if we could pull off that finish.

 

[jkclone]

We lost by 2 in Waco. I think that's a pretty good reason.

I think that's the exception rather than the rule. We haven't beaten them since January 7, 2014. We don't matchup well against them and they are really good.

If you told me at the beginning of the year we would lose one home game this is the one I would have picked.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I think that's the exception rather than the rule. We haven't beaten them since January 7, 2014. We don't matchup well against them and they are really good.

If you told me at the beginning of the year we would lose one home game this is the one I would have picked.

You forget Georges clanging a game-winning running shot in Waco two years ago, too, when he had (I think) BDJ wide open for a shot in the corner.

We've dropped a few close ones against them in the past few years.

 

[CY88CE11]

I think that's the exception rather than the rule. We haven't beaten them since January 7, 2014. We don't matchup well against them and they are really good.

If you told me at the beginning of the year we would lose one home game this is the one I would have picked.

And before that we hadn't lost to them at home. Period. So, no, I don't think past years are a good indicator of this year's prospects.

 

[awd4cy]

I think that's the exception rather than the rule. We haven't beaten them since January 7, 2014. We don't matchup well against them and they are really good.

If you told me at the beginning of the year we would lose one home game this is the one I would have picked.

We beat them in a pretty important championship game in March 2014. But really, wow, it has been a long time since we have beaten them. I agree as well, hard to see a win in Hilton. Tough tough matchup.

 

[chuckd4735]

I think that's the exception rather than the rule. We haven't beaten them since January 7, 2014. We don't matchup well against them and they are really good.

If you told me at the beginning of the year we would lose one home game this is the one I would have picked.

We hadn't matched up well with them the last two years when they had guards like Chery and Medford to go with Gathers and Motley. Their guard play this year took a drop off, and actually allows us to match-up better with them than previously years, IMO. Yeah their front court is better than ours, but whose isn't? Our backcourt is better than theirs this year.

 

[Dale]

Update after this past week's games. Gee, I wonder who has the best chance to win the conference title?

Kansas outright: 99.3% (up from 55%)
Kansas/Baylor tie: 0.3%
Kansas/WV tie: 0.3%
Kansas/ISU tie: 0.1%

In exactly two simulations out of 10,000 did Kansas not win or share the title. I think we can say #13 is in the books.

On the plus side, here's ISU's breakdown by final position (not breaking ties), which is looking much improved:

1st: 0.1% (down from 0.4%)
2nd: 23% (up from 3%)
3rd: 30% (up from 14%)
4th: 40% (down from 54%)
5th: 7% (down from 19%)
6th+: 0.2% (down from 11%)

And ISU's breakdown by final conference record:

13-5: 4% (up from 1%)
12-6: 22% (up from 7%)
11-7: 39% (up from 22%)
10-8: 28% (down from 34%)
9-9: 7% (down from 26%)

There was also 10% at less than 9-9 last week -- that isn't possible for ISU to get now, obviously.

 

[Dale]

Oh, and for you fanatical optimists out there, here's simulation #5548:

ISU wins out.
Kansas loses out.
Baylor wins out, other than the ISU game.

1: ISU (13-5)
2: Baylor (12-6)
2: Kansas (12-6)
4: West Virginia (10-8)