Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

[VeloClone]

Nah, it can’t be completely exclusionary from the beginning, and those already in the P2 are in the 48.

Do I think there would be future movement or some of the 48 dropping out or getting kicked out? I’d imagine so, that’s why I said eventual profit maximization may be 32-40 schools, but after a certain point just being in the SEC or BIG will be so valuable it won’t be as big of issue. Even the Jaguars are valuable in the NFL for example.

There will never be completely equitable valuations across any conference or entity, at least not enough to capture the scale needed.

Vandy could opt out, but I doubt it. They’ll finally start investing in their program. Who outside the 48 is the sec kicking them out for? Maybe Baylor if they continue to clean up, maybe another FL school. But it’s not unequivocal and they easily could just give them a long leash.

KU pays its own way given this much disruption likely comes with redoing the tournament.

Before we get to a P2, we’ll likely have a good 10 years at P3 imo, although not in revenue.

To a certain degree. But a big part of what makes the Jaguars valuable is the existence of a player draft and salary caps. There are instruments in place that hold out real hope that a franchise with a terrible team and no history can turn things around - in a relatively reasonable amount of time.

 

[BCClone]

To a certain degree. But a big part of what makes the Jaguars valuable is the existence of a player draft and salary caps. There are instruments in place that hold out real hope that a franchise with a terrible team and no history can turn things around - in a relatively reasonable amount of time.

If they stink it up, they get first choice of players, notlike that in college

 

[WhoISthis]

To a certain degree. But a big part of what makes the Jaguars valuable is the existence of a player draft and salary caps. There are instruments in place that hold out real hope that a franchise with a terrible team and no history can turn things around - in a relatively reasonable amount of time.

That’s simply not true. Being an NFL franchise is nearly 100% of their value. Draft and salary caps are characteristics of the NFL. They’re perhaps why NFL is more valuable than other sports entities.

They’re called franchises for a reason.

Being an NFL franchise is basically ALL of the value in any of those franchises. Think of it this way- if Jerry got fed up with other owners and somehow pulled the Cowboys out of the NFL to USFL, and Dallas gets a new NFL team, which one has more value?

So now that we’ve established that, Vandy being the Jags of the SEC in a P2 exclusive top tier means at some point in the future they will be a top-48 brand. Mississippi St is not inherently different than Kansas St or Memphis, but decades of being in the SEC has separated them in value

 

[surly]

That’s simply not true. Being an NFL franchise is nearly 100% of their value. Draft and salary caps are characteristics of the NFL. They’re perhaps why NFL is more valuable than other sports entities.

They’re called franchises for a reason.

Being an NFL franchise is basically ALL of the value in any of those franchises. Think of it this way- if Jerry got fed up with other owners and somehow pulled the Cowboys out of the NFL to USFL, and Dallas gets a new NFL team, which one has more value?

So now that we’ve established that, Vandy being the Jags of the SEC in a P2 exclusive top tier means at some point in the future they will be a top-48 brand. Mississippi St is not inherently different than Kansas St or Memphis, but decades of being in the SEC has separated them in value

Your equating Memphis with K-State is pretty rich. They are as similar as Colgate and Syracuse or Boise and Oregon.

But yes, Mississippi State is the equal of K-State in my mind, as they are of other land grant schools in this conference.

However, being in the SEC does not in and of itself improve their value. MSU football is valued #36 by the Wall Street Journal's financial analysts; K-State 29th. But of course, they are using real numbers rather than simple ones.

College Football Value Rankings

graphics.wsj.com

 

[AuH2O]

Nah, it can’t be completely exclusionary from the beginning, and those already in the P2 are in the 48.

Do I think there would be future movement or some of the 48 dropping out or getting kicked out? I’d imagine so, that’s why I said eventual profit maximization may be 32-40 schools, but after a certain point just being in the SEC or BIG will be so valuable it won’t be as big of issue. Even the Jaguars are valuable in the NFL for example.

There will never be completely equitable valuations across any conference or entity, at least not enough to capture the scale needed.

Vandy could opt out, but I doubt it. They’ll finally start investing in their program. Who outside the 48 is the sec kicking them out for? Maybe Baylor if they continue to clean up, maybe another FL school. But it’s not unequivocal and they easily could just give them a long leash.

KU pays its own way given this much disruption likely comes with redoing the tournament.

Before we get to a P2, we’ll likely have a good 10 years at P3 imo, although not in revenue.

Totally a gut feel, but I think 48-60 seems like the ballpark of a number of teams that helps keep CFB making good money long-term. I think much less than that and they run the risk of getting too exclusive and dropping too many fans that are just going to stop paying attention. It's not like there isn't a way bigger, more popular football alternative that already exists. Too many teams and it's just low-value mouths to feed.

While having the high end of number of teams could certainly cut into per team revenue, it is the low risk approach that helps maintain significant product differentiation from the NFL. Second, the networks don't give a rats ass what the per team revenue is. For them it's about having more content that still provides them a net income advantage over their content alternatives to CFB. Judging by the games that do get on the ESPNs and FS1 and FS2 throughout a week, it seems that you can go quite a ways down the pecking order before it stops making sense for ESPN or Fox to show games.

 

[WhoISthis]

Your equating Memphis with K-State is pretty rich. They are as similar as Colgate and Syracuse or Boise and Oregon.

But yes, Mississippi State is the equal of K-State in my mind, as they are of other land grant schools in this conference.

However, being in the SEC does not in and of itself improve their value. MSU football is valued #36 by the Wall Street Journal's financial analysts; K-State 29th. But of course, they are using real numbers rather than simple ones.

College Football Value Rankings

graphics.wsj.com

Memphis is far more equivalent to KSU than Colgate to Syracuse or Boise to Oregon.

KSU is closer to Memphis than it is Iowa St, but all of ksu, ISU, and MSU have benefited greatly from conference affiliation with respect to Memphis

 

[WhoISthis]

Totally a gut feel, but I think 48-60 seems like the ballpark of a number of teams that helps keep CFB making good money long-term. I think much less than that and they run the risk of getting too exclusive and dropping too many fans that are just going to stop paying attention. It's not like there isn't a way bigger, more popular football alternative that already exists. Too many teams and it's just low-value mouths to feed.

While having the high end of number of teams could certainly cut into per team revenue, it is the low risk approach that helps maintain significant product differentiation from the NFL. Second, the networks don't give a rats ass what the per team revenue is. For them it's about having more content that still provides them a net income advantage over their content alternatives to CFB. Judging by the games that do get on the ESPNs and FS1 and FS2 throughout a week, it seems that you can go quite a ways down the pecking order before it stops making sense for ESPN or Fox to show games.

It really depends on how fast it occurs Imo.

Dropping some fans isn’t an issue if it drops costs more. The marginal benefit becomes negative before 48 imo.

Not all fans will be lost as it’s not like the others are getting dropped from programming all together. ESPN made money off the AAC for example. Some of the fans of 20+ former P5 schools dropped to the AAC level competing for a different title may check out of the top level, but not enough to offset the benefit of paying these schools $7 million instead of $30+ million.

Fundamentally it’s just consolidation and redoing of schedules so big brands play big brands more often. You’re right Imo that Ohio St is going to draw good ratings no matter what to a large degree, and if they conferences are paid unequally (the “3” in P3) it doesn’t need to be as formally as exclusive

 

[AuH2O]

It really depends on how fast it occurs Imo.

Dropping some fans isn’t an issue if it drops costs more. The marginal benefit becomes negative before 48 imo.

Not all fans will be lost as it’s not like the others are getting dropped from programming all together. ESPN made money off the AAC for example. Some of the fans of 20+ former P5 schools dropped to the AAC level competing for a different title may check out of the top level, but not enough to offset the benefit of paying these schools $7 million instead of $30+ million.

Fundamentally it’s just consolidation and redoing of schedules so big brands play big brands more often.

I think the AAC in the current model vs. a formalized collection of say 48 teams in the future is not a close comparison, assuming those 48 (or whatever number it is) do not play outside that group and have their own playoff from which the rest are formally excluded. Cincy playing Indiana and ND, Memphis playing Miss St., UCF playing Florida in a bowl, etc. gives the league some legitimacy and an idea that they are "in the club." If they are glorified FCS, those schools and leagues' value plummet. Basically I think it's to the point where the "out of the club" teams are worth considerably less than the AAC, and so low to the point that these schools are going to have a tough decision on whether or not they can operate a football program any more.

 

[surly]

Memphis is far more equivalent to KSU than Colgate to Syracuse or Boise to Oregon.

KSU is closer to Memphis than it is Iowa St, but all of ksu, ISU, and MSU have benefited greatly from conference affiliation with respect to Memphis

Good lord. WSJ values K-State at #36, ISU at #43, Memphis at #75.

Boise and Oregon are separated by 42, #63 v. #21. K-State and Memphis by 39.

 

[cykadelic2]

The roadmap is pretty straightforward:

1. Add a group of Pac12 schools that can bring around $60M/school annually.
2. How solid is the ACC GOR? The SEC could hope the ACC blows up. ESPN would have a vested interest in blowing up the ACC Network as much as the top handful of ACC schools. But the SEC could be patient for a decade or until the current ACC GOR penalties become less onerous than SEC TV $.

The ACC/B10/P12 Alliance was created to preserve the existing members in each conference and to provide Fox and other new entrants a path to bid on the CFP (even though the ACC is in bed with ESPN). ACC is also interested in non con scheduling enhancements and potential expansion with the R8 to open up their ESPN contract for renegotiation. And the P12 won't be poached by the B10 in order to preserve the Rose Bowl contract for both conferences.

The ACC GOR is just as solid as the B12's which is why the ACC is off limits for poaching by the SEC and B10 through at least 2034 (two years before GOR expiration). That GOR precludes ESPN from busting up the conference as well and why would ESPN do that given they got ACC rights to both FB and MBB through GOR expiration and they got a very good deal in the process.

 

[isucy86]

Your equating Memphis with K-State is pretty rich. They are as similar as Colgate and Syracuse or Boise and Oregon.

But yes, Mississippi State is the equal of K-State in my mind, as they are of other land grant schools in this conference.

However, being in the SEC does not in and of itself improve their value. MSU football is valued #36 by the Wall Street Journal's financial analysts; K-State 29th. But of course, they are using real numbers rather than simple ones.

Is there a more current analysis? That study references 2017/2018 financial data. Would be curious how current financial data impacts the valuations.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Your equating Memphis with K-State is pretty rich. They are as similar as Colgate and Syracuse or Boise and Oregon.

But yes, Mississippi State is the equal of K-State in my mind, as they are of other land grant schools in this conference.

However, being in the SEC does not in and of itself improve their value. MSU football is valued #36 by the Wall Street Journal's financial analysts; K-State 29th. But of course, they are using real numbers rather than simple ones.

College Football Value Rankings

graphics.wsj.com

Lol. Hang on to that link hard bro.

 

[surly]

Lol. Hang on to that link hard bro.

Place a comma after hard, bro.

 

[surly]

This one updated in June of '21 has ISU #35, K-State #44, MSU #52. However, this is simply measuring football revenue, not the value of each program.

Where does your school rank among richest and poorest Power 5 college football programs? New revenue figures for all 65

It took a little longer this year for the U.S. Department of Education's Equity in Athletics Data dump. But the latest numbers are out now. See where your favorite program ranks in the numbers that actually matter most -- on the business end of college football.

www.pennlive.com

 

[Gunnerclone]

This one updated in June of '21 has ISU #35, K-State #44, MSU #52. However, this is simply measuring football revenue, not the value of each program.

Where does your school rank among richest and poorest Power 5 college football programs? New revenue figures for all 65

It took a little longer this year for the U.S. Department of Education's Equity in Athletics Data dump. But the latest numbers are out now. See where your favorite program ranks in the numbers that actually matter most -- on the business end of college football.

www.pennlive.com

Oh so like an actual measurable value? Cool.

 

[surly]

Oh so like an actual measurable value? Cool.

Revenue is measurable as is discounted cash flow and/or earnings multipliers, which I believe were the WSJ methods. Revenue doesn't speak to expenses, debt load, and such.

Use a comma after "Oh" next time, bro.

 

[nfrine]

This one updated in June of '21 has ISU #35, K-State #44, MSU #52. However, this is simply measuring football revenue, not the value of each program.

Where does your school rank among richest and poorest Power 5 college football programs? New revenue figures for all 65

It took a little longer this year for the U.S. Department of Education's Equity in Athletics Data dump. But the latest numbers are out now. See where your favorite program ranks in the numbers that actually matter most -- on the business end of college football.

www.pennlive.com

FIFY

 

[WhoISthis]

Good lord. WSJ values K-State at #36, ISU at #43, Memphis at #75.

Boise and Oregon are separated by 42, #63 v. #21. K-State and Memphis by 39.

Right, and I’m saying most of that is from decades of conference affiliation. If conference branding and revenue didn’t matter so much this isn’t a thread

Swap Memphis with KSU 30 years ago and Memphis is much higher and KSU much lower Imo. Even more, put Memphis in the SEC rather than Mississippi St 20-30 years ago, and Memphis definitely higher.

 

[CrossCyed]

Anyways, don't expand beyond 12. No one from the other power conferences is coming to the Big 12 and there's no school in the G5 that will be additive.

 

[WhoISthis]

The ACC GOR is just as solid as the B12's which is why the ACC is off limits for poaching by the SEC and B10 through at least 2034 (two years before GOR expiration). That GOR precludes ESPN from busting up the conference as well and why would ESPN do that given they got ACC rights to both FB and MBB through GOR expiration and they got a very good deal in the process.

The ACC is a single rights holder situation, so it is MUCH easier for espn to work around that than in the big 12 with Fox involved.
And even then OUT is occurring early.

We both agree that GOR won’t stop realignment from happening before GOR expiration, it’s just how soon . With the clear move to P2 with SEC grabbing OuT, there are several ACC programs that would leave at moments notice. And with espn having ACC, AAC, and SEC, the GOR is not an issue. Only exit fees.

ESPN could pay all those schools in the three conferences to their GOR, so no damages, rearrange those conferences by removing the ACC, and come out ahead. Paying BC to be in the AAC may be overkill, but it does improve the deal on the other AAC teams. And Clemson in the SEC at ACC rate is better for ESPN. They’ll pay those 40 teams the same regardless, but can make more reorganizing the brands. With this in mind, dissolution is a real possibility given the GOR is not prohibitive to espn

I would not be shocked if ESPN became sole rights holder to Big 12 in order to facilitate consolidation of SEC and ACC, and improve their situation with Big 12 GOR costs

That’s assuming the SCOTUS ruling this summer doesn’t void them anyway