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Big 12 Champion Computer Projection

Dale said:
No one wants to read this, but I feel compelled:

Kansas St.: 53.6% (29.8% outright, 23.8% tied)
Iowa St.: 34.7% (14.7% outright, 20.0% tied)
Kansas: 27.1% (9.7% outright, 17.4% tied)
Texas Tech: 24.5% (8.7% outright, 15.9% tied)
Baylor: 4.7% (1.1% outright, 3.6% tied)
Texas: 2.7% (0.4% outright, 2.3% tied)
TCU: 2.0% (0.3% outright, 1.6% tied)

If there is any silver lining, it's that even though everything went as badly as possible for ISU today (both their game and others), spot ISU a win over KSU Saturday and:

Iowa St.: 51.7% (24.5% outright, 27.2% tied)
Kansas St.: 37.2% (15.3% outright, 21.9% tied)
Kansas: 28.4% (10.3% outright, 18.1% tied)
Texas Tech: 26.4% (9.5% outright, 17.0% tied)
Baylor: 5.0% (1.2% outright, 3.8% tied)
Texas: 3.1% (0.5% outright, 2.6% tied)
TCU: 2.1% (0.3% outright, 1.8% tied)

But it's close to the end for ISU if they lose:

Kansas St.: 72.9% (46.7% outright, 26.2% tied)
Kansas: 25.6% (9.0% outright, 16.6% tied)
Texas Tech: 22.4% (7.4% outright, 15.0% tied)
Iowa St.: 15.1% (3.2% outright, 11.8% tied)
Baylor: 4.5% (1.0% outright, 3.5% tied)
Texas: 2.4% (0.4% outright, 2.0% tied)
TCU: 1.7% (0.2% outright, 1.5% tied)
Click to expand...

There's still a significant chance, and that's about all we could ask for. Worst to first is pretty much a dream season, so anything close to that should be considered pretty damn good as well. Let's go knock their teeth in at their place!
 
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Going into game 12 where a win puts you at the favorite is quite good considering last year and ISUs history. The last four years of Fred were something if a golden era for ISU bball and the 12-6 and 11-7 conference records those teams achieved are well within reach. It was a brutal game yesterday, but they battled until the end. Lard was keeping balls alive and did anyone see him completely lay out trying to knock a dribble loose from behind when TCU broke the press? In a terrible game those are the things I look for to tell me what kind of resolve the team has. The ultimate test will be at KSU. Tall task but I feel confident the team will be focused and will battle. I do think there's something about road games and the business trip approach that helps this team focus.
 
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Dale said:
No one wants to read this, but I feel compelled:

Kansas St.: 53.6% (29.8% outright, 23.8% tied)
Iowa St.: 34.7% (14.7% outright, 20.0% tied)
Kansas: 27.1% (9.7% outright, 17.4% tied)
Texas Tech: 24.5% (8.7% outright, 15.9% tied)
Baylor: 4.7% (1.1% outright, 3.6% tied)
Texas: 2.7% (0.4% outright, 2.3% tied)
TCU: 2.0% (0.3% outright, 1.6% tied)

If there is any silver lining, it's that even though everything went as badly as possible for ISU today (both their game and others), spot ISU a win over KSU Saturday and:

Iowa St.: 51.7% (24.5% outright, 27.2% tied)
Kansas St.: 37.2% (15.3% outright, 21.9% tied)
Kansas: 28.4% (10.3% outright, 18.1% tied)
Texas Tech: 26.4% (9.5% outright, 17.0% tied)
Baylor: 5.0% (1.2% outright, 3.8% tied)
Texas: 3.1% (0.5% outright, 2.6% tied)
TCU: 2.1% (0.3% outright, 1.8% tied)

But it's close to the end for ISU if they lose:

Kansas St.: 72.9% (46.7% outright, 26.2% tied)
Kansas: 25.6% (9.0% outright, 16.6% tied)
Texas Tech: 22.4% (7.4% outright, 15.0% tied)
Iowa St.: 15.1% (3.2% outright, 11.8% tied)
Baylor: 4.5% (1.0% outright, 3.5% tied)
Texas: 2.4% (0.4% outright, 2.0% tied)
TCU: 1.7% (0.2% outright, 1.5% tied)
Click to expand...
Thanks for posting.
My first thoughts yesterday:
Devastating loss for our chances
It now all comes down to next Saturday

It will be very tough to win at KSU, possible but unlikely. So disappointed in the team yesterday. We have really not been sharp for several games now, but had been winning. Our defense was awful yesterday! I think people have figured out that we have a hard time staying in front of our man. Once people beat you off the bounce, it’s very difficult to get a stop. Tim Floyd always said the most important offensive skill to have is to able to dribble penetrate. Our close outs were bad too. Offensively, our shooting was very poor. I am too lazy to look it up and do the math, but without Jacobson we probably shot 33%? The stats all come down to shooting %. Everything else surprisingly equal. They shot about 10 percentage points better than us. In a 50-60 shot game, that 10-12 points of margin. Our passing was god awful and an adventure 1/2 the time. I will resist commenting on individuals, but will say Jacobson played well offensively. Other than that - I have no kudos for anybody on anything.
I thought Dixon did a great job coaching and his players played really smart basketball. Their execution of a simple pick and roll was outstanding, and our inability to defend it was shocking.
So disappointed. The is no joy in Mudville.
 
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We will be at most a 3.5 point underdog, but my hunch is it opens up closer to KSU favored by 1.5 or 2.5 depending on how they do at Texas
 
For purposes of title contention, this is as close to must-win as you can get. Too many things would have to go perfect (with ISU and other teams' schedules) for us to be at 7-5 with 6 games left.
 
Using MRed, and keeping all games on current default setting, here's what we have:

1. Kansas State (13 - 5) Defeated Kansas and Texas Tech based on record against #4 teams.
2. Kansas (13 - 5) Defeated Texas Tech and lost to Kansas State based on record against #4 teams.
3. Texas Tech (13 - 5) Lost to Kansas State and Kansas based on record against #4 teams.
4. Iowa State (11 - 7)
5. Texas (10 - 8) Defeated Baylor and TCU based on record against #1 teams.
6. TCU (10 - 8) With Baylor, lost to Texas based on record against #1 teams. Defeated Baylor based on record against #4 teams.
7. Baylor (10 - 8) With TCU, lost to Texas based on record against #1 teams. Lost to TCU based on record against #4 teams.
8. Oklahoma (5 - 13)
9. Oklahoma State (3 - 15)
10. West Virginia (2 - 16)

FWIW.
 
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Here's MRed bracket if ISU wins at KSU, with several additional stipulations: Kansas State manages to sweep KU; ISU's only loss is either at TCU or at UT (specifics of that either/or vary, this is w/ a win at TCU and a loss at UT).

1. Iowa State (13 - 5) Defeated Kansas State and Texas Tech based on round-robin record.
2. Kansas State (13 - 5) Defeated Texas Tech and lost to Iowa State based on round-robin record.
3. Texas Tech (13 - 5) Lost to Iowa State and Kansas State based on round-robin record.
4. Kansas (12 - 6)
5. Texas (10 - 8) Defeated Baylor based on record against #1 teams.
6. Baylor (10 - 8) Lost to Texas based on record against #1 teams.
7. TCU (9 - 9)
8. Oklahoma (5 - 13)
9. Oklahoma State (3 - 15)
10. West Virginia (2 - 16)
 
awd4cy said:
Seeing what KSU is doing and knowing the veteran leadership they have, I don’t think we do. KSU hasn’t lost a Big 12 game since January 5th. Pretty impressive.
Click to expand...

Credit to them for grinding out wins, but they escaped Baylor without Clark, McClure, and Mason and KU at home. Came back from down 20 at home to WVU...these all things we could do, in some cases have.
 
If we beat KSU next week, I predict 15 in a row happens (albeit a tie). The only question is are we one of the teams tied at the top of the standings?
 
Since almost everything that could go wrong Big 12 title-wise for Iowa State in the last week has gone wrong, the odds for the Cyclones right now are...not that great. The KSU game on Saturday is a must-win -- not that you all couldn't figure that out without a model.

ISU/Baylor win:
Kansas St.: 64.3% (35.6% outright, 28.8% tied)
Kansas: 35.4% (12.7% outright, 22.7% tied)
Iowa St.: 29.4% (9.7% outright, 19.7% tied)
Texas Tech: 11.9% (2.1% outright, 9.8% tied)
Baylor: 10.4% (2.6% outright, 7.8% tied)

ISU/Texas Tech win:
Kansas St.: 58.4% (29.0% outright, 29.4% tied)
Texas Tech: 35.5% (12.8% outright, 22.6% tied)
Kansas: 31.1% (10.5% outright, 20.5% tied)
Iowa St.: 26.8% (8.3% outright, 18.5% tied)
Baylor: 1.6% (0.2% outright, 1.4% tied)

KSU/Baylor win:
Kansas St.: 89.6% (70.3% outright, 19.4% tied)
Kansas: 21.4% (6.5% outright, 14.9% tied)
Baylor: 6.1% (1.3% outright, 4.8% tied)
Texas Tech: 5.5% (0.7% outright, 4.8% tied)
Iowa St.: 3.8% (0.4% outright, 3.4% tied)

KSU/Texas Tech win:
Kansas St.: 86.0% (62.8% outright, 23.2% tied)
Texas Tech: 20.8% (5.8% outright, 15.0% tied)
Kansas: 19.9% (5.8% outright, 14.0% tied)
Iowa St.: 3.5% (0.3% outright, 3.2% tied)
Baylor: 0.9% (0.1% outright, 0.8% tied)

And in the pie-in-the-sky scenario where ISU and Baylor win and West Virginia completes the season sweep of Kansas:

Kansas St.: 72.0% (43.4% outright, 28.5% tied)
Iowa St.: 34.5% (13.0% outright, 21.5% tied)
Texas Tech: 14.4% (3.1% outright, 11.3% tied)
Kansas: 13.6% (2.7% outright, 10.9% tied)
Baylor: 12.5% (3.3% outright, 9.2% tied)
 
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Where weeks ago, I had three teams tied at the top of the B12 finishing with 11 wins, this time my pick is a clear winner. Purple Kansas chances looking good imo.
1. Kansas State (14 - 4)
2. Kansas (13 - 5)
3. Iowa State (12 - 6) Defeated Texas Tech based on head-to-head record.
4. Texas Tech (12 - 6) Lost to Iowa State based on head-to-head record.
5. TCU (11 - 7)
6. Baylor (10 - 8)
7. Texas (8 - 10)
8. Oklahoma (5 - 13)
9. Oklahoma State (3 - 15)
10. West Virginia (2 - 16)
 
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After Saturday's games, probably the most important detail from the 100k simulations:

ISU odds of title at record:
11-7: 0.1%
12-6: 9.9%
13-5: 62.4%
14-4: 95.1%

One more loss: better than even odds at the Big 12 title. Two more losses: less than a 1 in 10 chance. (It doesn't matter much what game ISU would lose, except v. Texas Tech -- which would be by far the worst loss for their Big 12 title odds.)

And the title odds, based on who wins the ISU/Baylor and KSU/WV games this weekend. KSU over WV is not a gimme -- Bart Torvik only has KSU as 4½-point favorites.

ISU/West Virginia win:
Texas Tech: 44.1% (18.5% outright, 25.6% tied)
Iowa St.: 40.6% (15.0% outright, 25.6% tied)
Kansas: 38.8% (15.0% outright, 23.8% tied)
Kansas St.: 32.5% (10.2% outright, 22.3% tied)
Baylor: 0.7% (0.0% outright, 0.7% tied)
Texas: 0.3% (0.0% outright, 0.3% tied)

ISU/KSU win:
Kansas St.: 64.4% (32.6% outright, 31.8% tied)
Texas Tech: 31.3% (10.2% outright, 21.1% tied)
Kansas: 29.2% (9.2% outright, 20.0% tied)
Iowa St.: 28.7% (8.4% outright, 20.2% tied)
Baylor: 0.4% (0.0% outright, 0.4% tied)
Texas: 0.1% (0.0% outright, 0.1% tied)

Baylor/West Virginia win:
Texas Tech: 49.9% (21.8% outright, 28.1% tied)
Kansas: 45.9% (20.7% outright, 25.2% tied)
Kansas St.: 38.6% (14.1% outright, 24.4% tied)
Iowa St.: 14.6% (2.4% outright, 12.2% tied)
Baylor: 7.2% (1.2% outright, 6.0% tied)
Texas: 0.4% (0.0% outright, 0.4% tied)

Baylor/KSU win:
Kansas St.: 69.1% (38.6% outright, 30.5% tied)
Texas Tech: 34.2% (11.5% outright, 22.7% tied)
Kansas: 33.0% (11.9% outright, 21.1% tied)
Iowa St.: 8.1% (0.9% outright, 7.2% tied)
Baylor: 4.5% (0.7% outright, 3.9% tied)
Texas: 0.1% (0.0% outright, 0.1% tied)
 
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