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Big 12 Champion Computer Projection

Dale said:
We have a new Big 12 favorite!

Iowa St.: 39.7% (20.3% outright, 19.4% tied)
Kansas: 37.1% (18.5% outright, 18.6% tied)
Texas Tech: 27.5% (12.5% outright, 15.0% tied)
Baylor: 19.2% (8.1% outright, 11.1% tied)
Kansas St.: 14.2% (5.6% outright, 8.6% tied)
TCU: 3.7% (1.0% outright, 2.8% tied)
Texas: 2.9% (0.7% outright, 2.2% tied)
Oklahoma: 1.1% (0.2% outright, 1.0% tied)

Average wins:
Iowa St.: 11.59
Kansas: 11.52
Texas Tech: 11.13
Baylor: 10.69
Kansas St.: 10.25
TCU: 8.98
Texas: 8.95
Oklahoma: 8.19
Oklahoma St.: 5.16
West Virginia: 3.55

Record of Big 12 champion:
11-7: 3.1%
12-6: 29.4%
13-5: 44.0%
14-4: 20.2%
15-3: 3.3%

ISU Big 12 record chances:
7-11: 0.3%
8-10: 1.7%
9-9: 5.9%
10-8: 14.2%
11-7: 23.9%
12-6: 26.4%
13-5: 18.6%
14-4: 7.6%
15-3: 1.4%

ISU odds of title at record:
10-8: 0.1%
11-7: 7.8%
12-6: 48.6%
13-5: 86.8%
14-4: 98.5%
15-3: 100.0%

ISU odds of outright title at record:
11-7: 0.1%
12-6: 9.9%
13-5: 51.5%
14-4: 87.7%
15-3: 99.1%
Click to expand...

It is going to be embarrassing walking around work in this condition for the next few weeks.
 
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RonBurgundy said:
While there are probabilities, there are also standard deviations around those probabilities, which differ for every team. So a Monte Carlo simulation can be used to evaluate the overall expected results. And with today's computers, would take only a minute to run once all the inputs are in.
Click to expand...

Did anyone else read this and hear a Ron Burgundy voice just spouting BS?
 
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cyfan92 said:
mred's 2019 Big 12 MBB Bracket Generator and Tiebreaker

http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=mbb

I'll be going down to the tournament. I REALLY hate the early game, so a top 3 seed would be wonderful
Click to expand...


That thing is so fun. Here are my results:

Big 12 Standings

1. Iowa State (14 - 4) Defeated Texas Tech based on head-to-head record.
2. Texas Tech (14 - 4) Lost to Iowa State based on head-to-head record.
3. Kansas (13 - 5)
4. Baylor (12 - 6)
5. Texas (11 - 7)
6. Kansas State (7 - 11) Defeated TCU based on record against #1 teams.
7. TCU (7 - 11) Lost to Kansas State based on record against #1 teams.
8. Oklahoma State (5 - 13)
9. Oklahoma (4 - 14)
10. West Virginia (3 - 15)
 
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Here's a visual of the league race. The +/- column is Floyd standings. The dates of upcoming games are listed while past games have the result (W/L) for the home team.
 

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Cycsk said:
That thing is so fun. Here are my results:

Big 12 Standings

1. Iowa State (14 - 4) Defeated Texas Tech based on head-to-head record.
2. Texas Tech (14 - 4) Lost to Iowa State based on head-to-head record.
3. Kansas (13 - 5)
4. Baylor (12 - 6)
5. Texas (11 - 7)
6. Kansas State (7 - 11) Defeated TCU based on record against #1 teams.
7. TCU (7 - 11) Lost to Kansas State based on record against #1 teams.
8. Oklahoma State (5 - 13)
9. Oklahoma (4 - 14)
10. West Virginia (3 - 15)
Click to expand...
I know KSU has a tough row to hoe from here on out, but I have a hard time believing they go 2-9.
 
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Bill Self will be smirking at the end of February.....until I see something else, that is what you have to bet on....if you bet money.
 
If we can get the next 4 games I'll start entertaining the idea we could win the conference.
 
Virtual tie at the top:

Kansas: 45.2% (23.4% outright, 21.8% tied)
Iowa St.: 44.8% (23.2% outright, 21.6% tied)
Baylor: 22.5% (9.4% outright, 13.1% tied)
Kansas St.: 18.4% (7.7% outright, 10.7% tied)
Texas Tech: 11.3% (3.2% outright, 8.1% tied)
Texas: 0.9% (0.1% outright, 0.8% tied)
TCU: 0.7% (0.1% outright, 0.6% tied)
Oklahoma: 0.1% (0.0% outright, 0.1% tied)

Average wins:
Kansas: 12.13
Iowa St.: 12.12
Baylor: 11.26
Kansas St.: 10.89
Texas Tech: 10.63
Texas: 8.75
TCU: 8.26
Oklahoma: 7.24
Oklahoma St.: 4.47
West Virginia: 4.24

Record for Big 12 champion:
11-7: 0.9%
12-6: 18.1%
13-5: 45.5%
14-4: 29.1%
15-3: 6.2%
16-2: 0.1%

ISU odds of title at record:
11-7: 3.2%
12-6: 34.3%
13-5: 78.2%
14-4: 96.9%
15-3: 100.0%

ISU odds of outright title at record:
12-6: 4.3%
13-5: 37.5%
14-4: 79.7%
15-3: 97.6%
 
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Scenarios for the big two early-week games:

ISU over Oklahoma; KSU over Kansas:
Iowa St.: 60.0% (36.1% outright, 23.9% tied)
Kansas St.: 25.3% (11.1% outright, 14.2% tied)
Kansas: 24.8% (8.7% outright, 16.1% tied)
Baylor: 21.4% (8.9% outright, 12.5% tied)
Texas Tech: 10.2% (2.9% outright, 7.3% tied)

ISU over Oklahoma; Kansas over KSU:
Kansas: 52.6% (28.1% outright, 24.5% tied)
Iowa St.: 52.0% (28.2% outright, 23.9% tied)
Baylor: 18.0% (7.1% outright, 11.0% tied)
Texas Tech: 8.7% (2.3% outright, 6.4% tied)
Kansas St.: 8.2% (2.5% outright, 5.7% tied)

Oklahoma over ISU; KSU over Kansas:
Iowa St.: 35.8% (15.5% outright, 20.3% tied)
Kansas: 35.5% (14.6% outright, 20.9% tied)
Kansas St.: 33.3% (15.9% outright, 17.4% tied)
Baylor: 28.6% (12.9% outright, 15.8% tied)
Texas Tech: 14.6% (4.5% outright, 10.1% tied)

Oklahoma over ISU; Kansas over KSU:
Kansas: 65.7% (40.3% outright, 25.4% tied)
Iowa St.: 28.3% (10.6% outright, 17.7% tied)
Baylor: 23.2% (9.9% outright, 13.3% tied)
Texas Tech: 12.0% (3.4% outright, 8.6% tied)
Kansas St.: 11.0% (3.6% outright, 7.4% tied)
 
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