I agree with that. I will note that Kentucky had multiple guys (6'10, 7'0, 6'11) who were really just in to rebound, and they did, but Iowa State as a team outrebounded Kentucky. Interestingly, Buchanan and Oweh tied for the most with eight. Momcilovic had a quiet five, at least to me. I have no data on this but have to think Iowa State's guards crash the boards more than the average team's. At the very least they have the last two games, since Jefferson was out
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
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I agree with that. I will note that Kentucky had multiple guys (6'10, 7'0, 6'11) who were really just in to rebound, and they did, but Iowa State as a team outrebounded Kentucky. Interestingly, Buchanan and Oweh tied for the most with eight. Momcilovic had a quiet five, at least to me. I have no data on this but have to think Iowa State's guards crash the boards more than the average team's. At the very least they have the last two games, since Jefferson was out
Yeah to me we rebounded down a lot. Heise and Toure were crashing hard most shots.
I think a lot of teams ask their bigs to rebound a lot. I think the TJ philosophy is to worry about blocking out first and then go get the rebound. This means that a lot of the time the ISU big is holding off his counterpart while a guard actually collects the board. This is accentuated when the ISU big is undersized vs. his counterpart. If he holds position more and doesn't try to go after the board right away there is less chance of the long big counterpart reaching over him to collect the board.
Maybe I am oversimplifying that a bit.
Except for plays when ISU blocks out all of the opponents and both ISU guards look at the ball on the floor and assume the other one is going to grab it . . . . only to have an opponent run back, grab the ball and get an easy layup.
It could happen.
Thoughts on Tenn/ISU and where each team has advantages / what they need to do to win:
Tennessee Needs To:
- Turn offensive rebounds into points. They will get ORbs, but they haven't been efficient in scoring off of them
- Don't settle for mid-range jumpers / floaters. They do not make them very often
- Bigs need to pass out of double teams effectively, they will need to play through the post and handle the double to find open shooters / the other big
- Play through Ament, but he needs to take the ball to the rim and not settle
- Cash in skip passes out of a double from one side to another
ISU Needs To:
- Put Gillispe and Boswell in hell - make them start the offense a long way from the basket and speed them up
- Convert turnovers into points (obviously)
- Be aggressive - pushing pace on the break and taking the ball to the hole. Tenn is big, but they aren't great shot blockers. Everything works better when they are pushing the pace. Tenn is a slow-paced team that I think will play even slower against us. That can make us passive at times.
- Stay out of foul trouble - especially can't have both Buchanan/Pleta or both Lipsey/Toure picking up fouls. Tenn's bigs are thick and strong and I could see ISU picking up fouls trying to keep them off the boards
Defensively, Tennessee plays a straight-up man with 5 position switching at times. At least in the Virginia game, they didn't help much when Virginia's guards drove to the rim, and they didn't double on the perimeter much - maybe a quick ice off pick-n-roll, but then a quick recover. I think that works in our favor as Lipsey and Toure can work on getting the right switches and take advantage. Their defense is mainly predicated on holding teams to a low EFG%. Teams take a ton of 3s against them, but only shoot 30%.
On offense, Tennessee is all offensive rebounding. They are #154 in 2pt FG% and #173 in 3pt FG% - and that's with them getting 75% of their 2pt shots close to the rim. They don't have a single positive offensive metric other than being the third highest OR% in the last 25 years at close to 45%.
I think this game comes down to which team converts their strength into points better. Basically if ISU can outscore Tenn in 'points off of turnovers' by more than Tenn outscores us in 'second chance points'. That's the whole game (unless someone goes crazy from 3)
Tennessee Needs To:
- Turn offensive rebounds into points. They will get ORbs, but they haven't been efficient in scoring off of them
- Don't settle for mid-range jumpers / floaters. They do not make them very often
- Bigs need to pass out of double teams effectively, they will need to play through the post and handle the double to find open shooters / the other big
- Play through Ament, but he needs to take the ball to the rim and not settle
- Cash in skip passes out of a double from one side to another
ISU Needs To:
- Put Gillispe and Boswell in hell - make them start the offense a long way from the basket and speed them up
- Convert turnovers into points (obviously)
- Be aggressive - pushing pace on the break and taking the ball to the hole. Tenn is big, but they aren't great shot blockers. Everything works better when they are pushing the pace. Tenn is a slow-paced team that I think will play even slower against us. That can make us passive at times.
- Stay out of foul trouble - especially can't have both Buchanan/Pleta or both Lipsey/Toure picking up fouls. Tenn's bigs are thick and strong and I could see ISU picking up fouls trying to keep them off the boards
Defensively, Tennessee plays a straight-up man with 5 position switching at times. At least in the Virginia game, they didn't help much when Virginia's guards drove to the rim, and they didn't double on the perimeter much - maybe a quick ice off pick-n-roll, but then a quick recover. I think that works in our favor as Lipsey and Toure can work on getting the right switches and take advantage. Their defense is mainly predicated on holding teams to a low EFG%. Teams take a ton of 3s against them, but only shoot 30%.
On offense, Tennessee is all offensive rebounding. They are #154 in 2pt FG% and #173 in 3pt FG% - and that's with them getting 75% of their 2pt shots close to the rim. They don't have a single positive offensive metric other than being the third highest OR% in the last 25 years at close to 45%.
I think this game comes down to which team converts their strength into points better. Basically if ISU can outscore Tenn in 'points off of turnovers' by more than Tenn outscores us in 'second chance points'. That's the whole game (unless someone goes crazy from 3)
Really good
I wonder if one thing that causes their super high OR% is that they aren’t efficient at converting them which gives a better than average chance at another offensive rebound (ie they have a lot of those trips down the court where they get 2 or 3 offensive rebounds in close succession). A basket is a basket but if it takes you three offensive rebounds to get it vs just one that makes your OR% look a lot better.
I can’t figure out how their 3pt% defense is so good. They’ve got a roster full of big guys that aren’t super quick rangy guys and don’t put an abnormal amount of perimeter ball pressure with their guards. Feels like it should be really hard to find space inside against them so the 2pt% makes sense, but with good ball movement you should be able to find clean looks for good outside shooters. Maybe it’s just that they do a good job getting teams deep into the shot clock and they end up forcing contested 3s.
My gut says it’s going to come down to 3 point shooting. If we have a good game where 2 to 3 guys are shooting well from deep that is going to make playing against their defense in the half court so much more manageable. Then for them Gillespie and to a lesser extent Ament can put up a ton of 3s. If either or both shoot well from 3 that is when Tennessee is really hard to beat. Conversely either of them can borderline shoot their team out of the game some nights, both from 3 and tough 2s.
Really good analysis, appreciate it. Some thoughts that have been lingering for me after going deep into Tennessee’s analytics and watching them some.
I wonder if one thing that causes their super high OR% is that they aren’t efficient at converting them which gives a better than average chance at another offensive rebound (ie they have a lot of those trips down the court where they get 2 or 3 offensive rebounds in close succession). A basket is a basket but if it takes you three offensive rebounds to get it vs just one that makes your OR% look a lot better.
I can’t figure out how their 3pt% defense is so good. They’ve got a roster full of big guys that aren’t super quick rangy guys and don’t put an abnormal amount of perimeter ball pressure with their guards. Feels like it should be really hard to find space inside against them so the 2pt% makes sense, but with good ball movement you should be able to find clean looks for good outside shooters. Maybe it’s just that they do a good job getting teams deep into the shot clock and they end up forcing contested 3s.
My gut says it’s going to come down to 3 point shooting. If we have a good game where 2 to 3 guys are shooting well from deep that is going to make playing against their defense in the half court so much more manageable. Then for them Gillespie and to a lesser extent Ament can put up a ton of 3s. If either or both shoot well from 3 that is when Tennessee is really hard to beat. Conversely either of them can borderline shoot their team out of the game some nights, both from 3 and tough 2s.
Or 3pt defense is really just luck - as was hypothesized by some of the early CBB analytics guys.
depends how we define terms. If we mean "How many three pointers go in," I think it's largely luck, unless your team defensive efficiency is also bad. If we mean "How many good looks does an average opponent get," I do think Iowa State's perimeter defense is a thing, and is really good
It is certainly true 3 point shooting has a lot more variance than other things, particularly in college. I have been leaning towards luck or there is something about their defense I don’t know.
3 point percentage almost always goes down the later in the shot clock you are (we all remember shot clock beating 3s but they are often missed) and a slow tempo defensive team does typically get the other team to go deep into the shot clock so it makes some sense from that perspective.
More thoughts on the matchup after watching some Tenn games:
Tennessee almost always plays 2 bigs (Estrella, Okpara, Carey) + Ament. They like to run high/low sets with the bigs to free up entry passes and it will be interesting to see how we defend that, especially with Jefferson out of the game. I'd guess we trap the big at the FT line hard from one of the wings, or rotate from the wings under the hoop to help on the big.
Tenn is a lot like Arizona in their offensive set. Gillispe isn't Jaden Bradley, he's more like Burries, actually, but for this comparison, he really plays both roles. Arizona doesn't really have an Ament-type player, but they do play the two bigs a lot (Kriivas, Peat, Awaka) and they crash the boards hard. But they don't have anyone on the bench who has made more that 15 threes on the year (Dell'Orso has made 46 this year and has 184 in his career). I expect that we'll play the same way we did against Arizona, really collapse everyone to the paint when the bigs get the ball and make them make the right pass and find the open shooter - and then make mediocre shooters (all except Gillispe) make the shot.
And they'll need two of their role/bench players to go off like Arizona did in order to beat us.
Want a gross stat? Dell'Orso went 8-14 from 3 against us in 2 games. That's almost 1/5th of the 3s he made all year. And it's 57% - he shot 29% in all other games combined.
A couple other things - Gillispe shoot's a LOT of threes and most of them are 3-4 feet behind the line. We can probably live with 3 or 4 of those, but need to make sure he doesn't pull a Milan.
Ament plays a bit like Dybantsa, but with nowhere near the physical strength and tools. But he likes the mid-range jumper than he can get over anyone (but doesn't make a high percentage) and he gets a "Dybantsa-like" whistle at times (8 FTs per game)
Tennessee almost always plays 2 bigs (Estrella, Okpara, Carey) + Ament. They like to run high/low sets with the bigs to free up entry passes and it will be interesting to see how we defend that, especially with Jefferson out of the game. I'd guess we trap the big at the FT line hard from one of the wings, or rotate from the wings under the hoop to help on the big.
Tenn is a lot like Arizona in their offensive set. Gillispe isn't Jaden Bradley, he's more like Burries, actually, but for this comparison, he really plays both roles. Arizona doesn't really have an Ament-type player, but they do play the two bigs a lot (Kriivas, Peat, Awaka) and they crash the boards hard. But they don't have anyone on the bench who has made more that 15 threes on the year (Dell'Orso has made 46 this year and has 184 in his career). I expect that we'll play the same way we did against Arizona, really collapse everyone to the paint when the bigs get the ball and make them make the right pass and find the open shooter - and then make mediocre shooters (all except Gillispe) make the shot.
And they'll need two of their role/bench players to go off like Arizona did in order to beat us.
Want a gross stat? Dell'Orso went 8-14 from 3 against us in 2 games. That's almost 1/5th of the 3s he made all year. And it's 57% - he shot 29% in all other games combined.
A couple other things - Gillispe shoot's a LOT of threes and most of them are 3-4 feet behind the line. We can probably live with 3 or 4 of those, but need to make sure he doesn't pull a Milan.
Ament plays a bit like Dybantsa, but with nowhere near the physical strength and tools. But he likes the mid-range jumper than he can get over anyone (but doesn't make a high percentage) and he gets a "Dybantsa-like" whistle at times (8 FTs per game)
I really like where the team is at with the guards right now. I'll probably eat my words, but I just don't see them giving Gillespie more than an inch of daylight. doesn't mean he won't make tough shots, this is March. But Lipsey's burst last game was notable. When's the last time we saw that past February? Toure takes so much wear off of Lipsey's legs. As you say, I think it's all about role players. If Boswell goes off, you're probably done. You could try to adjust, but I think Iowa State will get into trouble with Jefferson questionable if they give the giants more room to work. If you're letting Tennessee attempt a bunch of shots in the paint, things aren't going to go well. Boswell is 36.8% from 3 this season, so the numbers say 4-9 against Virginia ain't happening. But it could
More than the 4-9 against Virginia, Boswell has averaged 2.1 attempts and 0.8 makes per game this year (28 total). He's just not a volume shooter. For reference, Boswell has the same # of makes as Heise and 6 ISU players have more attempts than he does. Only two Tenn players have more attempts (Ament and Gillispe)
Also, on the Tennessee turnovers, I feel like most of them I watched were them being soft with the ball or passes, and usually when the opposing team picked up defensive intensity, like at the end of the game. In their game at Arkansas they had a stretch in each half where Arkansas picked up the defensive intensity and Tenn went 4+ minutes with no made FGs. In both of them they were sloppy and had a bunch of turnovers. The thing is that nobody else (outside of Houston) can put the constant pressure on that ISU does - that's what they can't emulate. I feel really good about being able to get Tenn's guards flustered and stringing turnovers together.
Funny you mention Houston. When Tennessee played Houston in Vegas, Tennessee only had 9 turnovers. Houston also out rebounded them. Yet Tennessee still won due to a huge margin in FTs.
Those 3 things will decide the game. Rebounds, Turnovers and FTs. Book it
I agree.
Also, Houston was still figuring things out at the time, they're obviously much better now and would probably beat Tennessee if they were in our place.
I would have agreed with you yesterday, but after last night... eeessh. 41 points with under 4 to play against the Illini defense is ROUGH
FYI - That game got Illinois up to #21 in Kpom defensive rating
Real possibility to have an all B10 Final 4. Iowa could be a NC. Do I drink bleach now or wait?
I can't see Purdon't getting past Arizona.
I am waiting for now. But its handy in the cupboard, and I have some Propel flavor pouches to mix in to help it go down.
