2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[NENick]

So instead of the 4th or 5th best teams in the country, the majority places this Cyclone team in the 7th-12th area. I can live with that.

After the Kansas & Cincinnati losses, I thought 5-2 was a realistic record over the next 7. They went 6-1, losing at TCU.
Then I saw 3-3 as a realistic final 6. I expected a loss to Houston, but beating TTech. Win Saturday and it's 3-3, 9-4 over the very challenging final 13 games.

Win Saturday and one game in the Big 12 tournament earns a 2-seed, although maybe 7th or 8th overall. I believe that's very doable.

 

[CychiatricWard]

So instead of the 4th or 5th best teams in the country, the majority places this Cyclone team in the 7th-12th area. I can live with that.

After the Kansas & Cincinnati losses, I thought 5-2 was a realistic record over the next 7. They went 6-1, losing at TCU.
Then I saw 3-3 as a realistic final 6. I expected a loss to Houston, but beating TTech. Win Saturday and it's 3-3, 9-4 over the very challenging final 13 games.

Win Saturday and one game in the Big 12 tournament earns a 2-seed, although maybe 7th or 8th overall. I believe that's very doable.

Very reasonable post right here.

 

[herbicide]

So realistic versus unrealistic. It wasn’t hard to see losses at BYU and at Arizona. The tech one hurt a bit but again they are playing extremely good basketball right now. I guess I’m just not up in arms about losing those games. Of course I want to see us win them all, but again, not realistic. We won’t face a team like tech until the sweet 16, and then an Arizona type until the elite 8, if we make it. On a neutral court I just think these results we have seen are taken out of context by some fans. That is all I’m saying.

Again, this is your perception or opinion; what is realistic and what is not. Others have other opinions on what is realistic or not.

If you must know my personal opinion is ceiling of elite 8. Floor round 32. But… I realize I could be wrong as when this team is “on” they can likely beat anyone.

 

[Cloned4Life]

So realistic versus unrealistic. It wasn’t hard to see losses at BYU and at Arizona. The tech one hurt a bit but again they are playing extremely good basketball right now. I guess I’m just not up in arms about losing those games. Of course I want to see us win them all, but again, not realistic. We won’t face a team like tech until the sweet 16, and then an Arizona type until the elite 8, if we make it. On a neutral court I just think these results we have seen are taken out of context by some fans. That is all I’m saying.

This is such a weird take. By an Iowa State fan.

23-3 with a legit #1 seed resume, by every single metric and eye test imaginable. Literal proof on the court results, backed up by the record, backed up by the analytics and predictive metrics. Yet, you were the "realistic" Cyclone fan that saw through that thinking - Nah.

Do we even want/care to be great? On February 21 - the very, very real opportunity existed for Iowa State to level up and go solidify their #1 seed resume. That is a really big deal to be in that position. The idea that losing all 3 of those ranked opportunities is "OK" is just an insane fan take to me. Are we really THAT f*cking scared of expectations? JFC. Maybe we need to ask Kenpom and Torvik and all the sites to factor in a "nervousy Cyclone fan energy" factor into their algos to ensure we don't look too good (in the numbers) at any point. That way us silly unrealistic fans don't get too overly excited or start getting too crazy with expectations based on past results. I mean, hell, after all - we weren't even predicted back in October to be in the Top 4 in the conference - See! See! We knew all along!

 

[madguy30]

This is such a weird take. By an Iowa State fan.

23-3 with a legit #1 seed resume, by every single metric and eye test imaginable. Literal proof on the court results, backed up by the record, backed up by the analytics and predictive metrics. Yet, you were the "realistic" Cyclone fan that saw through that thinking - Nah.

Do we even want/care to be great? On February 21 - the very, very real opportunity existed for Iowa State to level up and go solidify their #1 seed resume. That is a really big deal to be in that position. The idea that losing all 3 of those ranked opportunities is "OK" is just an insane fan take to me. Are we really THAT f*cking scared of expectations? JFC. Maybe we need to ask Kenpom and Torvik and all the sites to factor in a "nervousy Cyclone fan energy" factor into their algos to ensure we don't look too good (in the numbers) at any point. That way us silly unrealistic fans don't get too overly excited or start getting too crazy with expectations based on past results. I mean, hell, after all - we weren't even predicted back in October to be in the Top 4 in the conference - See! See! We knew all along!

Again I'd take a good look at who ISU is running with out there vs. who they've played and then maybe think a little bit about how it doesn't matter what the fans expect vs. how the games turn out.

Maybe even casually watch other teams.

 

[Cloned4Life]

Very reasonable post right here.

I think it is a (sports) depressing-bummer that Cyclone fans "expect" to lose games (particularly a home game, against anyone), and claim it makes them logical and reasonable. Being a fan of sports really doesn't have a lot in common with general human rationality.

If you can't get your hopes up that we can rise to the occasion and live up to the #1 seed line that was revealed after our Houston win, then what is the point? Just happy to be here kinda thing?

 

[ClonesFTW]

Why would Purdue get a 2 seed over us, we have way better resume then them and win head to head game

They have 2 more Q1 wins and are currently above us in NET, might not end that way but I can see the argument if there is more emphasis on Q1.

 

[ClonesFTW]

Recent results matter

Since February 1 we are the 57th ranked offense: 204th in FG %. The committee isn't blind to teams that are regressing. We have some time to turn it around and look pretty come Selection Sunday.

 

[Sigmapolis]

 

[CychiatricWard]

This is such a weird take. By an Iowa State fan.

23-3 with a legit #1 seed resume, by every single metric and eye test imaginable. Literal proof on the court results, backed up by the record, backed up by the analytics and predictive metrics. Yet, you were the "realistic" Cyclone fan that saw through that thinking - Nah.

Do we even want/care to be great? On February 21 - the very, very real opportunity existed for Iowa State to level up and go solidify their #1 seed resume. That is a really big deal to be in that position. The idea that losing all 3 of those ranked opportunities is "OK" is just an insane fan take to me. Are we really THAT f*cking scared of expectations? JFC. Maybe we need to ask Kenpom and Torvik and all the sites to factor in a "nervousy Cyclone fan energy" factor into their algos to ensure we don't look too good (in the numbers) at any point. That way us silly unrealistic fans don't get too overly excited or start getting too crazy with expectations based on past results. I mean, hell, after all - we weren't even predicted back in October to be in the Top 4 in the conference - See! See! We knew all along!

No, I don’t care one bit brother, lol. What a weird post. We won a lot of games but hadn’t faced our toughest tests, especially on the road. Those loses don’t change things. And our betting profile was that of an elite 8 ceiling most of the year. That is a fact. Our metrics have indicated right around 6-10 for quite awhile and that, again, is elite 8 type team. Nobody is scared of expectations. I expect and want to win every game, but that is reality. There are some really great teams this year, and we aren’t at that level. **** out of here with whatever the hell this was. I’m a cyclone diehard. Grew up in Ames, went to Iowa State, 36 years, in my blood. I want nothing more than Iowa state to be successful.

 

[CychiatricWard]

I think it is a (sports) depressing-bummer that Cyclone fans "expect" to lose games (particularly a home game, against anyone), and claim it makes them logical and reasonable. Being a fan of sports really doesn't have a lot in common with general human rationality.

If you can't get your hopes up that we can rise to the occasion and live up to the #1 seed line that was revealed after our Houston win, then what is the point? Just happy to be here kinda thing?

Of course I would’ve love and wanted us to beat BYU and Arizona but the reality is those were tough games. Losing them is not the issue. It is very frustrating how we seem to look against those top teams on the road but I realize that winning those is hard, for anyone. Luckily tournament games aren’t played in opposing gyms. This team is still really good and if we get a good draw we have a huge opportunity ahead of us to take it far.

 

[fsanford]

I think it is a (sports) depressing-bummer that Cyclone fans "expect" to lose games (particularly a home game, against anyone), and claim it makes them logical and reasonable. Being a fan of sports really doesn't have a lot in common with general human rationality.

If you can't get your hopes up that we can rise to the occasion and live up to the #1 seed line that was revealed after our Houston win, then what is the point? Just happy to be here kinda thing?

Depends on how you approach sports

Me it's entertaining, a financial opportunity to make bets, it's fun.

I have had season tickets to a professional sports team for 35 years. While I always hoped they would win it all it was never an expectation. Only 1 of 32 teams can win it all. So at least 1 group of fans will have to wait 32 years to win it all.
And in the sport I attend you have multi game playoffs, not a 1 and done

Fortunately they won the championship twice so got the added perk. Those that don't win, for at least 1 fan base the 32 year clock starts again.

In a sport like college basketball and it's one and done format to post season success I focus on overall season, (which has been a very good).
College hoops more than football can be unpredictable. For me best not to get too high or too low


There is no wrong approach to this. Everyone is different. Though if you expect to win every game you better be prepared for disappointment. I guess at least ISU that translates into 6 disappointment events up to now. There are 2 more coming,unless they win Big 12 tourney and national title. Maybe only 1 more

The only thing that sets me off is hyperbolic reactions to losses.

Reasonable criticism have at it

 

[VeloClone]

View attachment 168388

Looked great to start the season.

Had a bad week in Lawrence and Cincinnati.

Most of us brushed it off... which I still think was a reasonable reaction. They were tired. We almost never win in Lawrence. Cincinnati was desperate and an underappreciated tough home court.

Seemed like they righted the ship. Then.

They've just been up and down since the TCU loss.

Couple great wins in there (murdering K-State, KU, Houston).

But didn't look competitive in some disappointing losses (BYU, Tech, Zona). And I think Arizona shows there's a tier of talent and team quality even beyond what KU and Houston can offer.

Arizona is on it. Duke. Michigan. Probably Florida. But we're just not on it.

Just looks and feels more like a #6 seed the past few weeks than a potential #1 or #2.

A six seed? Do you mean a six seed in the NCAA Tournament?

You've lost your ever loving mind...

 

[CPG4ISU]

I think a 30,000 foot perspective is helpful at times like this.

This team was ranked #16 in the preseason. And most people thought that seemed high, considering that ISU had lost their two best players in Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones. Turns out the preseason Big 12 ranking was spot on

Here we are on March 3, and people are melting down because this team is #6 in the country and is teetering on the 2/3 seed line.

The reality is this is not a top 10 roster, and Otz just outcoaches most of his peers.

 

[Sigmapolis]

A six seed? Do you mean a six seed in the NCAA Tournament?

You've lost your every loving mind...

Dumb.

They’re playing like a #6 seed. Have their moments but not at all consistent.

But they’ve banked enough good wins and good metrics they’ll end up a #2 or #3.

At no point did I remotely say the team would be on the #6 line. I could see #4 if they lose the next two but that’s gotta be the floor.

 

[CHim]

I think a 30,000 foot perspective is helpful at times like this.

This team was ranked #16 in the preseason. And most people thought that seemed high, considering that ISU had lost their two best players in Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones. Turns out the preseason Big 12 ranking was spot on

Here we are on March 3, and people are melting down because this team is #6 in the country and is teetering on the 2/3 seed line.

The reality is this is not a top 10 roster, and Otz just outcoaches most of his peers.

I would like to hear from Big 12 coaches or other people in the know who gets more out of a roster than TJ. Year after year the team is better than the list of individual players which seems like the exact thing a coach is supposed to do. Yet he is never mentioned for coach of the year, instead passed over for people that achieved slightly better results with a massively larger budget.

 

[4theCYcle]

I think we have a good team. When they're on they can beat anyone. But, problem is the interior athleticism at times, or lack thereof, tends to show against lengthy athletic teams. It is apparent this team is very streaky. The data even backs it up. They can go on runs and get back in games, but they allow them too. Last night and Saturday were the recipe of everything going wrong at the same time. Guys couldn't even make bunnies or putbacks right under the hoop. While yes, they battled better than Saturday, they just look kind of mentally defeated or lackluster at times. They showed up more last night, but hopefully they get this stuff fixed. Hopefully they can win a couple games, rest up, and show up and somehow still remain on the 2 line.

The odd thing is, when they have been good at the free throw line, they can't shoot anywhere else. When they can shoot anywhere else, they can't make FTs.

I'm ready for things to start going their way. The 2 day turnaround against these tough caliber teams was probably rough, so hopefully they can get a reset and get back at it and show ASU the door quickly. The backloaded schedule caught up to them. I just think there is a tier of teams, then follows another obvious tier. Michigan, Duke and Arizona at the top. I haven't watched Florida to really have an opinion on them. Then the next tier is the muddied 2 seed race of Uconn, Iowa State, Purdue, Houston, Nebraska, Illinois, Kansas, Tech, and I guess Michigan state is now up there? I have not watched them to know how they have been playing. ISU just needs some confidence back and right the ship. The fanbase could really use a better March.

 

[dahliaclone]

Dumb.

They’re playing like a #6 seed. Have their moments but not at all consistent.

But they’ve banked enough good wins and good metrics they’ll end up a #2 or #3.

At no point did I remotely say the team would be on the #6 line. I could see #4 if they lose the next two but that’s gotta be the floor.

I get what you're saying playing like a 6 but if that's the case almost every other team we're fighting for 2/3 seeds with can say the same.

Illinois has lost four of six, with their two wins over Indiana and USC and haven't beaten a ranked team in a month.

Purdue has lost two in a row and three of four (including two at home) with the lone win over Indiana.

Nebraska, after starting 20-0, has gone 4-4 since then and the four wins are NW, PSU, USC and Maryland.

Houston has lost three of four.

Seems to me, ISU isn't the only team that isn't consistent.

 

[bluestarcyclone]

I would like to hear from Big 12 coaches or other people in the know who gets more out of a roster than TJ. Year after year the team is better than the list of individual players which seems like the exact thing a coach is supposed to do. Yet he is never mentioned for coach of the year, instead passed over for people that achieved slightly better results with a massively larger budget.

Its hard to argue against Sampson the last couple years though.

He should have won it in 2022 arguably, but we also finished 7-11 in conference- a huge turnaround from 0-18 but still mightve been hard to give COY.

 

[VeloClone]

Dumb.

They’re playing like a #6 seed. Have their moments but not at all consistent.

But they’ve banked enough good wins and good metrics they’ll end up a #2 or #3.

At no point did I remotely say the team would be on the #6 line. I could see #4 if they lose the next two but that’s gotta be the floor.

Dumb.

In "the last few weeks" they have beaten NET 7 Houston and blown out NET 15 Kansas. They have struggled against NET 13 Tech and lost at NET 23 BYU - and obviously last night at the #2 team's house. About the only game that would support your contention is the loss at NET 45 TCU. To say that they have been playing like a 6 seed is silly.

Of all of the games listed the only games that weren't within 10 points were the one last night and ISU's blow out of Kansas. And that isn't counting the @ Utah game that ISU won going away but really tells us nothing.