2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

Cyclones have the most 10-0 runs in the country and chuckleheads on this website are still concerned about scoring droughts



Well, yeah, but for every 3 or so runs, we give up one, and sure, we give way less runs than the vast majority of teams, but it could happen at the wrong time once, which never but always happens in basketball, so it's all over, unless we keep winning and it isn't, but even then, it could be.
 
The difference between kill shots per game and kill shots conceded per game is what matters. A kill shot on its own can mean many things. Maybe you stormed back from down 12, or maybe you stretched a 4 point lead to 14. It can mean you went on a 10-0 "run" over four, five, six minutes while playing stellar defense, or that you were scoring quickly and your opponent missed some shots. Conceding a kill shot can mean you just missed open looks, but can also mean you had a five minute scoring drought like against BYU. Or it can have to do with your defense cratering. Throw it all together and average per game and you at least filter out a little bit of noise.

The bottom line is Iowa State's scoring is pretty streaky, which means the team can find itself in pretty significant deficits, but can also stretch a small lead in a heartbeat, both of these things more often than most teams. Personally, I don't think this would rear its head till the second weekend, should they make it that far. And, they've shown they can still beat good teams by a lot even when they give up runs throughout a game. But they obviously can't have a game like BYU, where their scoring is streaky and their defense can't keep things on the rails. Otz has basically said this all season, of course
 
  • Like
Reactions: VeloClone
Hate to say it but looking at those, i would pick Uconn.
The WAB, SOR, and win % vs Q1 are my top 3 criteria personally, in terms of "earned it", and they have all 3.
WAB definitely will help UConn. Seems they're valuing that more recently (although was it just last season it was added? I don't recall without checking).

Most teams in that comparison chart are quite close overall.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: NENick
Hate to say it but looking at those, i would pick Uconn.
The WAB, SOR, and win % vs Q1 are my top 3 criteria personally, in terms of "earned it", and they have all 3.
The problem is UCONN has survived only because they’ve played in the Big East this year. They’ve played with fire and had it bite them once with the game against Creighton. Can UCONN play like a 1 seed absolutely. Have thy earned it I don’t think they’ve earned it over us at the moment. Our supposed bad loss is really good compared to theirs.
 
My dad (rip) taught me that "liars can figure but figures don't lie"
Why are the Johnnies a good win for Uconn but not for ISU? Aren't they a better win than the Hoks?
I hadn't thought of that, yeah, SJ either should replace Iowa on ISU's notable wins list or be added to it. Tthe latter makes more sense. Some teams on chart have 4 in a category, others have 5 or 6 listed, so it isn't like it's a "space" situation.
 
  • Like
Reactions: frackincygy
St. John’s had the worst scoring drought of all time last night. At least the worst I’ve ever seen. 2-28 in the second half shooting, missing 24 straight shots and put up 14 points.

0 field goals in the final 17 minutes of regulation.
Thanks a lot…you just made me go back and look at how awful our 2023 NCAA tournament game against Pitt was. While not as bad, we made our first field goal with 9:54 left in the 1st half to make the score 22-4.
 
Last edited:
IMO if we want to sniff a #1 seed we need to beat Arizona on Monday. The committee loves Florida and will do everything in their power to elevate an SEC team to the final 1 spot.
We SHOULD have to beat Arizona to get the #1 seed. We needed to win games like @TCU and @Cincinnati to earn it. We didn't, so now we need to win @Arizona.
 
Thanks a lot…you just made me go back and look at how awful our 2023 NCAA tournament game against Pitt was. While not as bad, we made our first field goal with 9:54 left on the 1st half to make the score 22-4.

That may have been even worse than the start of the 2014 Big 12 Tourney Final.
 
Thanks a lot…you just made me go back and look at how awful our 2023 NCAA tournament game against Pitt was. While not as bad, we made our first field goal with 9:54 left on the 1st half to make the score 22-4.
Go look back at our shooting stats for the those first two Otz teams. My god, how did we win games?

Year 1, in order of most points/game
Brockington..... 44.7% FG, 36.2% 3pt...........solid/good
Hunter................39.1% FG, 27.4% 3pt..............oof
Kalscheur..........36.3% FG, 23.5% 3pt...........WTF
Grill.....................39.1% FG, 34.8% 3pt........... ok
Kunc...................41.9% FG, 38.9% 3pt...........ok
Conditt..............66.3% FG..................................great
Enaruna.............54.5%FG, 30% 3pt...............should've played more
Jackson..............40% Fg, 35.7% 3pt..............always forget that guy was on this team. Is there a more forgettable multi-year player in school history?

Team...........43.9%FG, 32.1% 3pt..........oof

-Thank god for Brockington.

Year 2

Holmes............38.9% FG, 32.8% 3pt........oof
Kalscheur........40% FG, 35.4% 3pt...........much improved.....solid
Grill...................39.3% FG, 36.8% 3pt........solid
Osunniyi.........57.7%FG, 23.1% FG...........solid
Lipsey .............48.2% FG, 20% 3pt...........solid
Kunc.................43.1% Fg, 32.55% 3pt.......oof
King..................50% FG, 26.7%3pt............solid

Team...........45%FG, 33.9% 3pt..........ok


This season.......50.1% FG, 39.2% 3pt....... The improvement we've made offensively is substantial. We turn the ball over a lot less now too.
 
I hadn't thought of that, yeah, SJ either should replace Iowa on ISU's notable wins list or be added to it. Tthe latter makes more sense. Some teams on chart have 4 in a category, others have 5 or 6 listed, so it isn't like it's a "space" situation.
Not really worth dissecting their reasoning but the "space issue" doesn't apply because it doesn't say notable losses but includes all losses. I just thought it would have been more notable to list an upper echelon from another conference than a mid level from the Big 10 since we already have Purdue as a win. What's the notable about beating the Hoks when 7 other teams did also Being a notable win for Purdue doesn't help their cause either. Unless they are pointing out to Hok fans "Ha Ha, we beat you too" :)
 
  • Like
Reactions: cyclones500
IMO if we want to sniff a #1 seed we need to beat Arizona on Monday. The committee loves Florida and will do everything in their power to elevate an SEC team to the final 1 spot.

They'll absolutely get a brand boost, but I think we have to acknowledge they're also getting love because they haven't lost in a month
 
  • Like
Reactions: aobie