I could be persuaded that there isn't a difference between being the lowest #1 and the highest #2. The thing is, once you drop to a #2, there are other factors at play to which region a team gets placed.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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Those three are the overwhelming favorites from a metrics standpoints. The other three that have a chance would be Florida, Houston, and Iowa St. if you believe in needing to have a top 19 Kenpom offense and defense. I would put it at about a 75% chance it is MI/AZ/Duke, 20% it is FL/Hou/ISU, and 5% somebody outside those 6 gets hot.
I don't know about the Houston love. They are very limited in the post. Tugler is a great defensive player, but they can't give it to him in the post for offense. Cenac prefers to shoot midrange and 3 pointers. They don't run a lot of offense other than give the ball to Flemings/Uzan and let them go. I think they're missing Roberts in the post, who could facilitate and score a little better than Tugler. Just feels like they're a little one dimensional with their guards having to carry the load. We have some similarities.
Agree, the good defensive Big 12 teams are shutting down their drives to the basket and their offense bogs down immediately. Especially if you can keep them off the offensive glass. Then they're left shooting a lot of contested jump shots late in the shot clock. They made a bunch against us and almost won. They missed those against Kansas and got rolled. They'll need an exceptionally hot shooting night to beat the top 3-4 teams, or get a crapload of turnovers.
Cenac is their wildcard to me. If he can get a little tougher scoring inside they could have something. His potential is off the charts, but he doesn't seem to be there yet.
This may be part of your "other factors" but one thing that could be a huge difference between being the last #1 and the first #2 is if the Big 12 manages to land the last two #1 spots. Then a Big 12 team that is the first #2 would end up having to face one of Duke or Michigan because of seeding rules. In that case there is a big difference between the last #1 and the first #2.
Wouldn’t getting the top 2 seed be nearly the same as the last 1 seed?
I guess that would theoretically put the Top 2 seed in the same bracket with the last 1 seed…..although the Committee would have to do the right thing…..
completely agree, but as of today I wouldn't bet on that happening. Which is crazy because it seemed very possible Saturday morning. If Illinois beats Michigan I see no way they don't hop Houston, in which case UConn would have to lose or Iowa State would have to win at Arizona for the Big 12 to get the last 1 seed. Even if Illinois loses, last night was Houston's last chance to prove something to the committee in the regular season
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
They're basically there for lobs, dunks and rebounds (and defense). Definitely very limited in the any back to the basket post-up game. They're tough when Flemings and Uzan are going to the bucket, but they really didn't even try to force the issue there last night until late, and then they had some success.
It's easy to say that, but I wouldn't want to see them in the tournament. They just went through a 3 game schedule that would be very worthy of an Elite Eight, Final Four and championship game, so I'll cut them some slack on that (particularly the game against KU because they just looked mentally exhausted after KU opened up a sizable lead).
Many times matchups end up being based more on location/region and avoiding matchups from the regular season than where a team falls on the s-curve. It is highly likely if we are are a 2 seed we will be in the Midwest region with Michigan as the 1 seed. There can also be a pretty big difference between the 4 seeds and 3 seeds in terms of a potential sweet 16 matchup (or likelihood a team gets upset in the first two rounds).
I might be wrong, but if Michigan is the top 1 seed and we are the top 2 seed, we can't be in the same region. We would be in the East region with Duke if the seeds held from Saturday.
You're talking about offense, but don't forget they defend like crazy. They probably avg 10-15 points off turnovers (guess).
That's impactful to their offense (and ISU's).
@interrobang is correct that Iowa State wouldn't get Michigan as the top 2 seed. But if the season ended today I would think the top 16 from Saturday would be pretty similar, with UConn and Iowa State flip-flopped. So wouldn't Iowa State just be the 2 in their region?
Oh yeah I guess that is possible as well. Had in my mind Houston would be the last 1 seed and not UConn.
IMO, I think Duke and Michigan will struggle against our defense. Both teams are used to defenders standing on the 3 point line and waving their arms around. Would like to see them play with two guys in their grill 30 feet from the basket.
My gut just says the committee isn't going to give Houston the benefit of the doubt given they've lost their last four against the rest of the top five in the Big 12, with the most recent loss coming less than two weeks before the end of the regular season. Who knows though. My assumption may also be wrong, because maybe Duke would be ahead of Michigan as of today, in which case Iowa State could wind up in Michigan's region if they fall to seventh overall
Can't is too strong, but unlikely is correct. They add up the 4 top seeds in each region and attempt to keep the numbers close for balance. However, Michigan is likely to be 2 on the s-curve after their recent matchup with Duke. As for us, 4 through 6 on the s-curve appears to be very close between UConn, Iowa St., and Houston along with Florida continuing to rise we could very easily get put in the 6 or 7 spot instead of 4 or 5. If we do the most likely thing and go 3-1 to finish the regular season with a lost at AZ, being the 2 seed in the Midwest with Michigan feels like the most likely outcome. Florida losing one of their last 4 along with UConn losing to St. John's would be a big help in being 4 or 5 on the s-curve.
I agree. I was also referring to a post that had them on the short list of national title contenders. They could win it, but their lack of offensive balance and reliance on their guards to make so many plays keeps them off of my list.
Wouldn't Duke's plan be to reproduce the BYU game with Boozer in Dybantsa's place?
