2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
True, but it also on the road. It will be a challenge and not a huge "bad loss" black mark if ISU should happen to lose.
The Committee has their hands full selecting the 68, placing them in order, bracketing them including following all bracketing rules. At that point they really have no time or inclination for creating story line matchups. There are so many potential story line matchups some are bound to occur but it isn't a goal of the Committee.
Minor correction, if we win out the regular season, we are a lock for the 3rd 1 seed (3 on the s-curve). That would certainly move us ahead of both Arizona and Houston.
The MBB Selection Committee will reveal their current top 16 seeds on Saturday, 2/21 at 11:30 am CT on CBS.
Gonzaga's NET SOS is 86 and their RPI SOS is 129. With that and a bad Q3 loss they have no business being anywhere near the 1 line. Portland could be 85 spots better in the NET and it would still be a Q3 loss.
People have been knocking ISU for their SOS all year long and both NET and RPI SOS are in the 50s.
Their case is going to be two losses compared to ~4-5 for the next-best contender if things go their way. Quality ain't got anything to do with it. Purely a quantitative argument right now.
But when you justify why Kansas is above Arizona you cite their records against Iowa State. Iowa State and Houston are tied at the top so the records of KU and UA against the entire first group - ISU and UH - must be compared (by the non bolded part of the rule you quoted). If KU and UA are placed that way because of head to head that isn't what the note says. Either your bolded part is applicable and justification is wrong or the non bolded part applies and the justification should include record agains ISU and UH.Here's the applicable rule.
Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship Seeding and Tiebreaker Procedures - Big 12 Conference
Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship Seeding and Tiebreaker Procedures (As of 2023-2024 Season) TIEBREAKERS The first criteria in the breaking of ties in the standingsbig12sports.com
I was curious because this year seems out of the norm to have this many teams with 5 or fewer losses in major conferences this late in the season. Right now, there are 16 P5 teams with 5 or fewer losses.
My question basically stemmed from how it sure seems like in recent years that 2 seeds in the tourney had like 7 losses more often than not. So I looked:
2022:
My question basically stemmed from how it sure seems like in recent years that 2 seeds in the tourney had like 7 losses more often than not. So I looked:
2022:
- 1 seed Gonzaga (3 losses)
- 1 seed Arizona (3 losses)
- 1 seed Baylor (6 losses)
- 1 seed Kansas (6 losses)
- 2 seed Duke (6 losses)
- 2 seed Villanova (7 losses)
- 2 seed Auburn (5 losses)
- 2 seed Kentucky (7 losses)
- 1 seed Alabama (5 losses)
- 1 seed Purdue (5 losses)
- 1 seed Houston (2 losses)
- 1 seed Kansas (7 losses)
- 2 seed Arizona (6 losses)
- 2 seed Marquette (6 losses)
- 2 seed Texas (8 losses)
- 2 seed UCLA (5 losses)
- 1 seed UCONN (3 losses)
- 1 seed North Carolina (7 losses)
- 1 seed Houston (4 losses)
- 1 seed Purdue (4 losses)
- 2 seed Iowa State (7 losses)
- 2 seed Arizona (8 losses)
- 2 seed Marquette (9 losses)
- 2 seed Tennessee (8 losses)
- 1 seed Auburn (5 losses)
- 1 seed Duke (3 losses)
- 1 seed Houston (4 losses)
- 1 seed Florida (4 losses)
- 2 seed Michigan State (6 losses)
- 2 seed Alabama (8 losses)
- 2 seed Louisville (7 losses)
- 2 seed St. John's (4 losses)
I also saw a short pod with some of the CBS guys (or maybe it was Field of 68) talking abotu UConn, and one of them said "SEC champ HAS to get a 1 seed, whether its Florida or Georgia".
And I thought, are you nuts?? This isn't the CFP where conf champs get a auto bid. It may shake out where Florida is worthy of a 1, but they sure as hell don't get it just for winning the SEC,
Stepping back for one second.
We're playing out scenarios around earning a #1 or a #2.
The #2 is most likely.
...but **** ME this debate is an awesome one to be having into late February.
I remember the seasons when we'd given up on the NCAA tournament before Christmas.
Not anymore!
We're playing out scenarios around earning a #1 or a #2.
The #2 is most likely.
...but **** ME this debate is an awesome one to be having into late February.
I remember the seasons when we'd given up on the NCAA tournament before Christmas.
Not anymore!
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
It’s interesting how quickly the national media quit talking about how terrible the SEC was in the non-conference, and at this point they apparently think that’s dead and buried.
If Iowa State ends the season with fewer overall losses than Houston, they will 100% be seeded higher than them. No doubt in my mind at all.
If they finish with the exact same number, it could be a tossup, but I would probably put Houston ahead because a close road loss is probably not a big enough descriminator.
If Iowa State wins out in the regular season and then loses to a top team in the Big 12 tourney (Houston, Arizona or Kansas), I think they are definitely a #1 seed.
Not saying any of that is easy or expected, but if they did, I'm very confident in my assumptions.
If Houston and Arizona have 1 seeds and we are a 2, our one will either be Michigan or Duke--so get used to seeing Michigan or Duke as the 4th round match up, regardless of the s-curve.
I saw that too. If you had to pick, it would be Duke right? They aren't the strongest guard court, maybe could turn them over.
Although checking BT, both UM and Duke have relatively high turnover rates... idk, eventually you gotta play someone that's pretty fn good anyway.
To all the folks saying the Big 12 tournament doesn't matter for NCAA tourny seeding purposes, in past years, for the vast majority of teams, I would agree.
However, this year could be very different for our current situation.
Let me paint you a picture. Iowa State and Houston are fighting for the last #1 seed. In the Big 12 tourney, Iowa State and Houston meet in the semifinal game as the #2 seed and #3 seed, respectively. Both teams enter that game with 4 losses.
Now you're telling me the NCAA selection committee has the last #1 seed predetermined prior to the Big 12 tourny? I say horse Shat to that. If Iowa State wins that semifinal game v Houston, they would have TWO head-to-head victories over Houston and one less loss than Houston on the season (entering the Big 12 tournament title game). There is ZERO chance Houston gets the last 1 seed over Iowa State in that scenario. Not to mention if Iowa State went on to beat Arizona or Kansas in the Big 12 tourny championship game.
However, this year could be very different for our current situation.
Let me paint you a picture. Iowa State and Houston are fighting for the last #1 seed. In the Big 12 tourney, Iowa State and Houston meet in the semifinal game as the #2 seed and #3 seed, respectively. Both teams enter that game with 4 losses.
Now you're telling me the NCAA selection committee has the last #1 seed predetermined prior to the Big 12 tourny? I say horse Shat to that. If Iowa State wins that semifinal game v Houston, they would have TWO head-to-head victories over Houston and one less loss than Houston on the season (entering the Big 12 tournament title game). There is ZERO chance Houston gets the last 1 seed over Iowa State in that scenario. Not to mention if Iowa State went on to beat Arizona or Kansas in the Big 12 tourny championship game.
Just have a hard time believing a 28-3 b12 team wouldn’t get a 1 seed
Yeah, I could’ve been clearer I think Iowa State finishes 27-4 at best, and so would have to jump a 28-3 or 27-4 Houston
Borzello also put the field into bracket form based on the committee's seeding. And man I wish that was true hah.
