2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[VeloClone]

This is the real deal. Ill worry about Zona when we get passed BYU. We have a habit of winning games like Houston and kansas and then laying an egg. Historically we do stuff like this all the time. I know it's Cliche but one game at a time really needs to be pounded into this teams heads. Glad we got a 5 day break before BYU. Hopefully the boys get some rest and rest them legs for the final run

For the record, @ BYU is a Q1a game just as much as KU and UH at home are.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Well, I am actually not giving them any credit Because half the things they say are so beyond stupid, the timing of their comments does not make any sense. I still cannot believe we were the #8 seed a few years ago.

There was legit national conversation if we could have stolen the last 1 seed, and it turns out we were not even CLOSE. It was not even remotely discussed. #8 somehow! The entire weekend of destroying other Big 12 teams, including Houston, did not make a dent.

I am in the minority but I do not care at all about location. Omaha did not matter to me in 2024. A #1 seed would have been unreal awesome in every way. And yes, it would have absolutely boosted our path and odds to make a run, just like it would this year.

There is a reason all of us speculating on the seeding matter aren't even talking about KC.

History shows it doesn't matter. Your CV is built or not by the regular season finale.

 

[Big_Sill]

They are also clear down at 10 in the NET.

Which is unchanged after last night.

 

[Die4Cy]

Getting the 1 seed for the conference tourney would be sick, but selfishly I'd be quite alright with the 2 or 3 for the sake of me being able to attend the first game in KC

The NCAA tournament committee has pretty much shown that conference tournaments do not matter for seeding purposes and really only get looked at if you are trying to play your way into the field and still need a couple Q1 wins to lock it up. They understand that the motivations for that weekend is pretty disparate across teams, and probably love having the bulk of the work done for virtually all outcomes before the automatic qualifiers need filled in.

 

[cyclones500]

To be fair, I thought Momcilovic did a hell of a job in the last 2 games defensively. Did NBA caliber players hit some shots over him? Of course they did. But Milan stayed in front of them and got a hand in their face. I honestly think it probably raised his stock in the eyes of NBA scouts. He's never going to be asked to shut down a top offensive player, but I think he proved he wouldn't get humiliated if he did get switched onto someone.

I've paid a little more attention to Milan's D in recent games, not every possession, but here & there. His footwork and decision on screen-fighting vs. switch looks solid. Defense isn't his "identity," but it's far from a detriment.

 

[Drew0311]

For the record, @ BYU is a Q1a game just as much as KU and UH at home are.

Yeah but they are not top 10.

 

[Letterkenny]

Just watch, we'll be a projected 1 going into it and then lose a game and the committee will suddenly factor that into making us a 2

Could see it being the difference maker between us, Houston and Arizona if we play eachother.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

This year I don't really care about the B12 tournament unless winning it gives us a 1 seed.

The committee will be done seeding the field by the time the Big 12 semi final games start. Realistically Iowa States seed will be set going into the tournament... If we win out we are probably a lock for the 4th 1 seed.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Can someone explain how we are the 2 seed in nearly every BracketMatrix expert's predictions with Michigan as the 1? I thought the overall #1 would be pitted against the last #2 seed which ain't us. Is it based on region/closeness to home?

The overall 1 seed gets to pick their spot but from there the committee places teams by proximity in order from 2-16. After that I think it gets kind of murky and the committee likes to look for story lines too.

 

[Helser 83]

I don't think your tie breakers are entirely correct. I believe that the winning percentage against top teams is against all of the teams with the same record before any tie breakers are applied to them. So the winning percentage against #1 teams would be percentage against ISU and UH combined.

At least that is the way it used to be...

I guess you'd have to take that up with @mred , I just picked the teams lol.

 

[MeanDean]

The overall 1 seed gets to pick their spot but from there the committee places teams by proximity in order from 2-16. After that I think it gets kind of murky and the committee likes to look for story lines too.

I've read lots of speculation about story lines, but I have never heard or read that that, at all, enters into the selection/placement process. Can you point me to a source that documents that it can occur? Thanks.

 

[EnkAMania]

I've read lots of speculation about story lines, but I have never heard or read that that, at all, enters into the selection/placement process. Can you point me to a source that documents that it can occur? Thanks.

Here is a good article on how seeding is done.

Building the brackets: A deep dive on the NCAA tournament selection and seeding process - NCAA.org

How do teams get selected and seeded for the NCAA Division I Men's and Women's Basketball Championships? Take a deep dive into the March Madness selection process,

www.ncaa.org

 

[Sigmapolis]

Michigan and Duke are near-locks without a collapse.

Arizona/Houston/Iowa St. are on top of each other for the final two #1 seeds. Might very well be 2/3 depending on how UA@UH goes on Saturday and how ISU@UA goes on 3/2.

Illinois is right there, though, and has a shot at Michigan at home on 2/27.

Connecticut took a dent against Creighton but is still in the running.

Gonzaga is somehow creeping back into the conversation. That Portland loss was bad, sure, but they've been unblemished otherwise outside Michigan running them over and look good in the computer rankings. They might have a shot if everybody else has some big falters/circular firing squad.

Florida kind of scares me for the same reason. They're probably too far back to worry about right now but are charging hard and might be there if everybody else steps on rakes in front of them.

 

[LLCoolCY]

View attachment 167893

Michigan and Duke are near-locks without a collapse.

Arizona/Houston/Iowa St. are on top of each other for the final two #1 seeds. Might very well be 2/3 depending on how UA@UH goes on Saturday and how ISU@UA goes on 3/2.

Illinois is right there, though, and has a shot at Michigan at home on 2/27.

Connecticut took a dent against Creighton but is still in the running.

Gonzaga is somehow creeping back into the conversation. That Portland loss was bad, sure, but they've been unblemished otherwise outside Michigan running them over and look good in the computer rankings. They might have a shot if everybody else has some big falters/circular firing squad.

Florida kind of scares me for the same reason. They're probably too far back to worry about right now but are charging hard and might be there if everybody else steps on rakes in front of them.

Florida needs to stay in the conversation. They could win the SEC reg season by multiple games and coming off the national title would provide a TV narrative the committee might like. While I believe the metrics would favor a 2nd Big 12 team the NCAA may like the optics of 4 conference champions.

 

[mred]

I don't think your tie breakers are entirely correct. I believe that the winning percentage against top teams is against all of the teams with the same record before any tie breakers are applied to them. So the winning percentage against #1 teams would be percentage against ISU and UH combined.

At least that is the way it used to be...

I guess you'd have to take that up with @mred , I just picked the teams lol.

Here's the applicable rule.

Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship Seeding and Tiebreaker Procedures - Big 12 Conference

Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship Seeding and Tiebreaker Procedures (As of 2023-2024 Season) TIEBREAKERS The first criteria in the breaking of ties in the standings

big12sports.com

When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing winning percentage, use each team’s winning percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie breaking procedure), rather than the performance against individual tied teams. The lone exception to this guideline would be if there are only two tied teams in the group placement and one of the teams won the head-to-head matchup(s). In this instance, the tie is deemed broken and comparison of the seed rather than the placement will be utilized.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Florida needs to stay in the conversation. They could win the SEC reg season by multiple games and coming off the national title would provide a TV narrative the committee might like. While I believe the metrics would favor a 2nd Big 12 team the NCAA may like the optics of 4 conference champions.

Yeah re: the surging Gators. Not an official criterium, but "defending national champions" might be an unofficial one the committee gives them -- consciously or not -- to boost them.

 

[not-the-manager]

Not to be a downer, but I think it's very unlikely Iowa State gets a 1 seed. I think Houston beats Arizona Saturday. Even if they lose at Kansas, Iowa State did too. After that they'll wipe the floor with their remaining opponents. I think Iowa State will lose to at least one of BYU and Arizona. Even if they win out I'm not sure you hop Houston, who swept Cincinnati, won at TCU, split with Tech, and lost by 3 in Ames. I suppose Illinois may hop them if they beat Michigan, but you're probably sixth overall then

 

[cyclones500]

I've read lots of speculation about story lines, but I have never heard or read that that, at all, enters into the selection/placement process. Can you point me to a source that documents that it can occur? Thanks.

Here's a good "mythbusters" page from NCAA. See especially #4, but Nos. 6 and 9 are related.

Debunking NCAA tournament myths - NCAA.org

Discover the truth behind the NCAA tournament selection and seeding process. This blog debunks common myths about NET rankings, conference favoritism, win totals

www.ncaa.org

 

[dahliaclone]

Not to be a downer, but I think it's very unlikely Iowa State gets a 1 seed. I think Houston beats Arizona Saturday. Even if they lose at Kansas, Iowa State did too. After that they'll wipe the floor with their remaining opponents. I think Iowa State will lose to at least one of BYU and Arizona. Even if they win out I'm not sure you hop Houston, who swept Cincinnati, won at TCU, split with Tech, and lost by 3 in Ames. I suppose Illinois may hop them if they beat Michigan, but you're probably sixth overall then

If Arizona loses to Houston and Iowa State wins out (obviously beating AZ on the road), it really could come down to a possible showdown in KC.

 

[herbicide]

Just watch, we'll be a projected 1 going into it and then lose a game and the committee will suddenly factor that into making us a 2

I've said it forever; the committee makes their selections first, then finds their reasons for them 2nd.