That really sucks for them. They were already not quite playing up to the early season expectations too.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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That really sucks for them. They were already not quite playing up to the early season expectations too.
So if Houston listens to Lunardi and thinks the game is at the Fertitta we will by forfeit, right?
I think Milan is a great rebounder, rarely does he lose the ball once he touches it. Compare that to the others who seem to lose 2/3 of the balls they touch. I'm sure it is not nearly that extreme, but it is annoying how many times it appears we have a rebound only to lose it to the other team or fumble it out of bounds. Do they keep a stat on successful rebounds???
Stirtz’s defense, No Mas. For you , reference to Roberto Duran.
I hated playing against Saunders as he always seemed to give us problems.. However, I never wish for that type of injury on anyone (except former Texas WR Mike Davis, for his cheap shot on Broomfield)
The BYU game on Saturday is now a push at best for seeding, with a potential seed line drop if you lose..
The BYU game on Saturday is now a push at best for seeding, with a potential seed line drop if you lose..
Luckily scoring is the most important part of the game. I'd also say he's an above average defender. It's really impressive the jump he's made on that end. He also stresses defenses, which can't be measured. I'd like to see him be a better rebounder at his size. It's interesting that some players just have "a nose for the ball" and some don't. Lipsey is incredible at reading the ball off the rim/glass. Heise is also pretty good and willing to get physical inside. Momcilovic is often in the mix, but doesn't bring down a lot of boards for a guy that's 6'8.
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
I agree with the first part, but a seed line drop for a Q1 road loss seems extreme
True. Winning always is better than "L," but at BYU is a Q1a game and unlikely to drop even to Q1b unless BYU has a massive fade.
It seems crazy, but it's amazing how underappreciated this actually has become in the game.
Scoring and particularly three-point shooting is far and away the most important quality in a player you need, and it isn't close. Great ball handling, passing and direction of an offense is second, and then there's another huge gap before you get to guys that can defend.
Playing guys that can't shoot, particularly guards, really hurts a team. It clogs up the paint, makes it way easier to defend the team and get rebounds because the defense isn't required to be spaced out. The other factor is missed shots and live ball turnovers are the best way for a team to run, get opportunities in transition and avoid ISU's half-court defense being set up.
Seeing Toure and Heise hit some shots the last couple games and Batemon continuing to improve is a huge thing. We need to have at least 2 of these three being a consistent threat and producer offensively for this team to make a run in March. Tamin being respectable from 3 moving forward is also a big deal.
The only reason it could be true is because we're so highly seeded. It depends on what we do tonight obviously.
Agreed, I think the most important factor in reaching our ceiling at this point is Tamin becoming a reliable 3-point threat. I think he's 8 of his last 36 (22%). If he can shoot 35-40% the rest of the way, we're in a much better spot. He was fantastic in March two years ago. We need that guy again if we want to get to the second weekend and beyond.
I wouldn’t go that far. They are still 20 in the NET so there is very little chance they fall out of the top 40 in the next month so it will be a Q1A game. No way you get a full seed line drop if you lose a Q1A game and you get some credit for winning one even if they are missing a guy.
Do we find this concerning? I know there are mountains of data nowadays, but this was the first updated metric to show up on my feed. Personally, I think there’s enough of a sample size to say performance of Otz teams in the tournament comes down first and foremost to matchups, not any one characteristic of a given team
Looks like to me what our eyes see. This team makes a lot of runs and gives up a lot of runs.
I had nothing to do this fine holiday, so I came up with my own top 25. I started with the NET top 35 and used the following criteria to rank the teams.
NET
BPI
KenPom
Torvik
KPI
SOR
WAB
SOS
Bracket Matrix
Avg Net Win
Avg Net Loss
Here is my top 25
NET
BPI
KenPom
Torvik
KPI
SOR
WAB
SOS
Bracket Matrix
Avg Net Win
Avg Net Loss
Here is my top 25
| Team | AP Rank | NET | My Rank | Diff from AP | Diff From Net | BM Seed | My Seed |
| Michigan | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 Seed | 1 Seed |
| Duke | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 1 Seed | 1 Seed |
| Arizona | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 1 Seed | 1 Seed |
| Purdue | 7 | 7 | 4 | -3 | -3 | 2 Seed | 1 Seed |
| Houston | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 Seed | 2 Seed |
| UConn | 5 | 10 | 6 | 1 | -4 | 1 Seed | 2 Seed |
| Illinois | 10 | 5 | 7 | -3 | 2 | 2 Seed | 2 Seed |
| Florida | 12 | 9 | 8 | -4 | -1 | 3 Seed | 2 Seed |
| Kansas | 8 | 14 | 9 | 1 | -5 | 3 Seed | 3 Seed |
| Texas Tech | 13 | 16 | 10 | -3 | -6 | 4 Seed | 3 Seed |
| Nebraska | 9 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 Seed | 3 Seed |
| Iowa St. | 6 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 Seed | 3 Seed |
| Alabama | 25 | 21 | 13 | -12 | -8 | 5 Seed | 4 Seed |
| Vanderbilt | 19 | 13 | 14 | -5 | 1 | 4 Seed | 4 Seed |
| Michigan St. | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 3 Seed | 4 Seed |
| Arkansas | 20 | 18 | 16 | -4 | -2 | 5 Seed | 4 Seed |
| Gonzaga | 11 | 6 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 4 Seed | 5 Seed |
| Louisville | 21 | 12 | 18 | -3 | 6 | 6 Seed | 5 Seed |
| St. John's (NY) | 17 | 24 | 19 | 2 | -5 | 5 Seed | 5 Seed |
| Tennessee | 28 | 22 | 20 | -8 | -2 | 6 Seed | 5 Seed |
| BYU | 23 | 20 | 21 | -2 | 1 | 6 Seed | 6 Seed |
| Virginia | 14 | 19 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 4 Seed | 6 Seed |
| North Carolina | 16 | 25 | 23 | 7 | -2 | 5 Seed | 6 Seed |
| Villanova | 29 | 30 | 24 | -5 | -6 | 7 Seed | 6 Seed |
| Kentucky | 30 | 28 | 25 | -5 | -3 | 7 Seed | 7 Seed |
If Purdue wins out and Iowa State loses the games I think they will, Purdue may hop them, which would follow your rankings. UConn can avenge their loss to St. John's, but I'm not sure the rest of their schedule will move their needle. Illinois will probably win out if they beat Michigan. Florida probably will too...we could really use them dropping one unexpectedly. It's going to be tough to keep pace with Kansas, and they have the brand power... You have to beat Tech at home to avoid any craziness. Nebraska may well end up a victim of unbalanced scheduling—all their great wins were over a month ago, and they lost to the last three very good teams they'll play in the back half/third of their schedule. Fair or not I don't see them moving their needle much
Down to a 8.2% win expectation at 7:09 when Flemings hit that pullup jumper to go up 63-53.
Outscored the Cougars 17-4 the rest of the way.
Great performance. Love this team. Gonna miss Tamin so much when he's gone.
Solidly on the #2 line after that win and knocking Houston back a little bit.
The #1 is definitely still in play if you win out.
Might even be possible with a loss at Arizona, though have to hope somebody else stumbles. Michigan and Duke are close to locks. Have to hope Arizona, Connecticut, and Houston pick up a loss or two.
Outscored the Cougars 17-4 the rest of the way.
Great performance. Love this team. Gonna miss Tamin so much when he's gone.
Solidly on the #2 line after that win and knocking Houston back a little bit.
The #1 is definitely still in play if you win out.
Might even be possible with a loss at Arizona, though have to hope somebody else stumbles. Michigan and Duke are close to locks. Have to hope Arizona, Connecticut, and Houston pick up a loss or two.
@Sigmapolis, this came out quick tonight! And I'm loving it!
