Torvik has iowa as a 7 seed (the top 7 seed) If they beat Purdue, does he move them ahead of Iowa State? 
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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I'd think we want Purdue to stay as high as possible in the eyes of the committee.. That will likely be our best win.
Too many losses overall then.
If you have a bunch of losses, all of which that are “good” because the team is better than you, then you are not that good.
Why not. Winning out.
Possible but is probably going to require being perfect until KC.
I think it is a combination of N+1 right now not adding a significant amount of data. Torvik works on a per possession basis, so each game can have a slightly different weight depending on tempo and overtime or not, but waving that issue aside, the Kansas game only makes up 4% of the sample size.
Add in the fact Iowa State was probably favorited by 5-10 at home in T-Rank. So, beating them by 18 should give you a little boost but... you're only modestly outperforming the pregame expectations.
4% + modest overperformance = muted impact
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Get the W against Houston Monday night and it’s hard to imagine Iowa State not getting a 2 seed even with a couple more losses before the end of the season potentially.
If Iowa State wins out I'd be shocked if they didn't grab a 1 seed.
That means you have head-to-head wins over BOTH Houston and Arizona who are also fighting for a 1 seed. That has to hold some weight come Selection Sunday. For example, if the committee is sitting there looking at 3 loss Houston and 3 loss Iowa State for that last 1 seed you'd think head-to-head would come into play.
With that said, it of course will be extremely hard to win out.
That means you have head-to-head wins over BOTH Houston and Arizona who are also fighting for a 1 seed. That has to hold some weight come Selection Sunday. For example, if the committee is sitting there looking at 3 loss Houston and 3 loss Iowa State for that last 1 seed you'd think head-to-head would come into play.
With that said, it of course will be extremely hard to win out.
I can absolutely see "the committee" pulling some fuckery like ~ "Even though Iowa State had the head-to-head win, it was at home and we couldn't ignore the fact that Houston's losses were higher quality." But I try not to get upset about things outside our control!
The top 6 teams in Kenpom as of this morning have the top 6 defenses. Makes sense. However, the offenses of those teams are 4, 10, 9, 12, 16, 17.
We’ve bounced in and out of the top 10 for offense. Haven’t been super consistent there lately.
Milan is the 12th best player in the country per BT.
Very surprised to see Stirtz so high.
I don’t disagree but the committee has made it clear with statements and actions that the conference tournaments have almost no or absolutely no impact on seeding. I don’t agree with it but that’s been how at least the last two years have been.
It really diminishes the importance and excitement of conference tournaments. Maybe conference tournaments used to have a little too much impact on seeding but I hate that it now has no impact. They over corrected if a correction was even needed.
The Committee has stated repeatedly that they have neither the time nor the inclination to consider conference tournament results for seeding. They obviously have to account for tourney berth stealers, but they don't reseed the conference at larges based on conference tournament performances. Those happen just too late for them to scrap everything and rebuild a bracket.
It’s never this simple, but the regular season big12 champion needs to be a 1 seed.
Committee should recognize that, same with big 10.
Almost regardless of losses.
Committee should recognize that, same with big 10.
Almost regardless of losses.
