It will be very interesting to see the energy level and emotion after this 3 day high. Throw in the travel and I expect the BYU game to be a real challenge, even without Saunders.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
Jacktronic
MONDAYTUESDAYWEDNESDAYTHURSDAYFRIDAYSATURDAYSUNDAY
I really enjoy when the season gets to this point and I have more clear rooting interest for or against specific teams. Makes neutral watching even more fun.
I'm hopeful that having almost 5 full days between the games will help them avoid a hangover. They are going to have to be locked in.
I know I just did an update after Kansas, but with the big NET jump I thought this was appropriate:
Iowa State NET 5 (as of 17 FEB)
23-3, 13-0 NC, 10-3 Conf
Home 15-0, Away 4-3, Neutral 4-0
NET SOS 48, RPI SOS 53
KPI 8, SOR 7, WAB 7, BPI 6, POM 7, T Rank 8
Q1 7-3
..Q1a 4-1 (H 6 UH +3, A 8 Purdue +23, A 14 KU -21, H 14 KU +18, N 24 St John’s +1)
..Q1b 3-2 (H 27 Iowa +4, A 45 TCU -7, A 46 BU +10, A 63 UC -9, A 72 OSU +13)
Q2 9-0
..Q2a 5-0 (H 46 BU +3, H 49 UCF +30, H 54 WVU +21, N 70 Syracuse +31, A 100 KSU +34)
..Q2b 4-0 (H 72 OSU +12, H 73 CU +30, N 81 Creighton +18, N 94 Miss St +16)
Q3 0-0
Q4 7-0 (H 261 Long Beach +31, H 277 Grambling +40, H 294 HCU +28, H 316 EIU +25, H 329 FDU +38, H 340 Stonehill +39, H 351 Alcorn +64)
Notes:
2 Home, 3 Away
Q1 3 (1H, 2A)
Q2 2 (1H, 1A)
Q3 0
Q4 0
Remaining schedule:
St 2/21 Q1a @ 20 BYU
Tu 2/24 Q2b @ 129 UU
St 2/28 Q1b 16 TTU
M 3/2 Q1a @ 3 UA
St 3/7 Q2b 71 ASU
3/10-14 Big 12 Tournament
Iowa State NET 5 (as of 17 FEB)
23-3, 13-0 NC, 10-3 Conf
Home 15-0, Away 4-3, Neutral 4-0
NET SOS 48, RPI SOS 53
KPI 8, SOR 7, WAB 7, BPI 6, POM 7, T Rank 8
Q1 7-3
..Q1a 4-1 (H 6 UH +3, A 8 Purdue +23, A 14 KU -21, H 14 KU +18, N 24 St John’s +1)
..Q1b 3-2 (H 27 Iowa +4, A 45 TCU -7, A 46 BU +10, A 63 UC -9, A 72 OSU +13)
Q2 9-0
..Q2a 5-0 (H 46 BU +3, H 49 UCF +30, H 54 WVU +21, N 70 Syracuse +31, A 100 KSU +34)
..Q2b 4-0 (H 72 OSU +12, H 73 CU +30, N 81 Creighton +18, N 94 Miss St +16)
Q3 0-0
Q4 7-0 (H 261 Long Beach +31, H 277 Grambling +40, H 294 HCU +28, H 316 EIU +25, H 329 FDU +38, H 340 Stonehill +39, H 351 Alcorn +64)
Notes:
- Big jump in the NET after Houston win (8 -> 5).
- ISU SOS also jumped from Houston game.
- ISU resume still looking good with 16 combined Q1 and Q2 wins and no losses below Q1b.
- Three of next four games are Q1.
- Currently no remaining games below Q2.
2 Home, 3 Away
Q1 3 (1H, 2A)
Q2 2 (1H, 1A)
Q3 0
Q4 0
Remaining schedule:
St 2/21 Q1a @ 20 BYU
Tu 2/24 Q2b @ 129 UU
St 2/28 Q1b 16 TTU
M 3/2 Q1a @ 3 UA
St 3/7 Q2b 71 ASU
3/10-14 Big 12 Tournament
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We had 2 kill shots and Houston had zero last night.
We have given up more runs that previous years though - it is somewhat concerning.
I honestly think Iowa State needs to go 4-1 to feel pretty good about a 2 seed. Even if Nebraska loses tonight they likely won't the rest of the way. I posted yesterday about how Purdue and Illinois both get a crack at Michigan, but that's really Illinois' only tough game. Kansas only has one more likely loss on their schedule. Florida is kind of a wild card at this point as far as how the committee will assess their body of work
I apologize, I did not know we made this deal after the TCU lost or I would have handled it much better.
Following up those 3 days with a trip out west is rough - those trips are always trouble. Just absolutely can't stumble in that second game.
What's crazy is 13 wins got you the title before conference realignment. This conference is nuts.
Can't get over this Arizona stretch - which is even worse than it appeared a month ago:
@ KU (L)
TTU (L)
BYU (on Wed.)
@Houston (on Sat)
@Baylor (next Tues)
Kansas (Sat)
ISU (Mon)
all Q1a games except Baylor
@ KU (L)
TTU (L)
BYU (on Wed.)
@Houston (on Sat)
@Baylor (next Tues)
Kansas (Sat)
ISU (Mon)
all Q1a games except Baylor
How the NET top 12 stack up…
Michigan NET 1
24-1, 10-0 NC, 40-1 Conf
NET SOS 15, RPI SOS 9
KPI 1, SOR 1, WAB 1, BPI 2, POM 1, T Rank 1
Q1 9-0, Q2 9-1, Q3 5-0, Q4 1-0
Duke NET 2
24-2, 11-1 NC, 13-1 Conf
NET SOS 13, RPI SOS 16
KPI 2, SOR 2, WAB 2, BPI 1, POM 2, T Rank 5
Q1 10-2, Q2 6-0, Q3 1-0, Q4 7-0
Arizona NET 3
23-2, 13-0 NC, 10-2 Conf
NET SOS 28, RPI SOS 22
KPI 3, SOR 4, WAB 4, BPI 4, POM 3, T Rank 3
Q1 9-2, Q2 6-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 6-0
Illinois NET 4
21-5, 9-2 NC, 12-3 Conf
NET SOS 12, RPI SOS 7
KPI 11, SOR 10, WAB 9, BPI 7, POM 6, T Rank 6
Q1 6-4, Q2 5-1, Q3 5-0, Q4 5-0
Iowa State NET 5
23-3, 13-0 NC, 10-3 Conf
NET SOS 48, RPI SOS 53
KPI 8, SOR 7, WAB 7, BPI 6, POM 7, T Rank 8
Q1 7-3, Q2 9-0, Q3 0-0, Q4 7-0
Houston NET 6
23-3, 12-1 NC, 11-2 Conf
NET SOS 37, RPI SOS 54
KPI 6, SOR 5, WAB 5, BPI 3, POM 4, T Rank 2
Q1 7-3, Q2 8-0, Q3 3-0, Q4 5-0
Gonzaga NET 7
25-2, 12-1 NC, 13-1 Conf
NET SOS 88, RPI SOS 134
KPI 18, SOR 9, WAB 15, BPI 8, POM 10, T Rank 15
Q1 6-1, Q2 4-0, Q3 8-1, Q4 7-0
Purdue NET 8
21-4, 10-1 NC, 11-3 Conf
NET SOS 11, RPI SOS 18
KPI 4, SOR 8, WAB 6, BPI 9, POM 8, T Rank 7
Q1 8-4, Q2 2-0, Q3 9-0, Q4 2-0
Florida NET 9
19-6, 9-4 NC, 10-2 Conf
NET SOS 6, RPI SOS 5
KPI 12, SOR 14, WAB 13, BPI 5, POM 5, T Rank 4
Q1 8-5, Q2 5-1, Q3 1-0, Q4 5-0
UConn NET 10
24-2, 10-1 NC, 14-1 Conf
NET SOS 32, RPI SOS 30
KPI 5, SOR 3, WAB 3, BPI 11, POM 9, T Rank 9
Q1 6-2, Q2 7-0, Q3 6-0, Q4 5-0
Nebraska NET 11
22-3, 11-0 NC, 11-3 Conf
NET SOS 43, RPI SOS 55
KPI 15, SOR 6, WAB 8, BPI 18, POM 11, T Rank 12
Q1 5-3, Q2 6-0, Q3 5-0, Q4 6-0
Louisville NET 12
19-6, 11-2 NC, 8-4 Conf
NET SOS 25, RPI SOS 32
KPI 22, SOR 24, WAB 20, BPI 10, POM 14, T Rank 14
Q1 6-6, Q2 4-0, Q3 3-0, Q4 6-0
Others:
KU NET 14
19-6, 10-3 NC, 9-3 Conf
NET SOS 2, RPI SOS 3
KPI 7, SOR 11, WAB 10, BPI 14, POM 15, T Rank 13
Q1 7-6, Q2 6-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 4-0
TTU NET 16
19-6, 10-3 NC, 9-3 Conf
NET SOS 4, RPI SOS 1
KPI 9, SOR 13, WAB 11, BPI 19, POM 16, T Rank 11
Q1 7-6, Q2 4-0, Q3 5-0, Q4 3-0
BYU NET 20
19-6, 12-1 NC, 7-5 Conf
NET SOS 24, RPI SOS 14
KPI 23, SOR 26, WAB 19, BPI 20, POM 22, T Rank 31
Q1 5-6, Q2 6-0, Q3 3-0, Q4 5-0
You could probably make a case for ISU to be ahead of Illinois here, but ISU's low SOS probably counteracts the advantage in Q1+Q2 record (ISU 16-3, Ill 11-5). ISU's SOS should improve greatly in the next 4 games.
The metrics (other than NET) have Houston with the edge over ISU by the slimmest of margins.
Michigan NET 1
24-1, 10-0 NC, 40-1 Conf
NET SOS 15, RPI SOS 9
KPI 1, SOR 1, WAB 1, BPI 2, POM 1, T Rank 1
Q1 9-0, Q2 9-1, Q3 5-0, Q4 1-0
Duke NET 2
24-2, 11-1 NC, 13-1 Conf
NET SOS 13, RPI SOS 16
KPI 2, SOR 2, WAB 2, BPI 1, POM 2, T Rank 5
Q1 10-2, Q2 6-0, Q3 1-0, Q4 7-0
Arizona NET 3
23-2, 13-0 NC, 10-2 Conf
NET SOS 28, RPI SOS 22
KPI 3, SOR 4, WAB 4, BPI 4, POM 3, T Rank 3
Q1 9-2, Q2 6-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 6-0
Illinois NET 4
21-5, 9-2 NC, 12-3 Conf
NET SOS 12, RPI SOS 7
KPI 11, SOR 10, WAB 9, BPI 7, POM 6, T Rank 6
Q1 6-4, Q2 5-1, Q3 5-0, Q4 5-0
Iowa State NET 5
23-3, 13-0 NC, 10-3 Conf
NET SOS 48, RPI SOS 53
KPI 8, SOR 7, WAB 7, BPI 6, POM 7, T Rank 8
Q1 7-3, Q2 9-0, Q3 0-0, Q4 7-0
Houston NET 6
23-3, 12-1 NC, 11-2 Conf
NET SOS 37, RPI SOS 54
KPI 6, SOR 5, WAB 5, BPI 3, POM 4, T Rank 2
Q1 7-3, Q2 8-0, Q3 3-0, Q4 5-0
Gonzaga NET 7
25-2, 12-1 NC, 13-1 Conf
NET SOS 88, RPI SOS 134
KPI 18, SOR 9, WAB 15, BPI 8, POM 10, T Rank 15
Q1 6-1, Q2 4-0, Q3 8-1, Q4 7-0
Purdue NET 8
21-4, 10-1 NC, 11-3 Conf
NET SOS 11, RPI SOS 18
KPI 4, SOR 8, WAB 6, BPI 9, POM 8, T Rank 7
Q1 8-4, Q2 2-0, Q3 9-0, Q4 2-0
Florida NET 9
19-6, 9-4 NC, 10-2 Conf
NET SOS 6, RPI SOS 5
KPI 12, SOR 14, WAB 13, BPI 5, POM 5, T Rank 4
Q1 8-5, Q2 5-1, Q3 1-0, Q4 5-0
UConn NET 10
24-2, 10-1 NC, 14-1 Conf
NET SOS 32, RPI SOS 30
KPI 5, SOR 3, WAB 3, BPI 11, POM 9, T Rank 9
Q1 6-2, Q2 7-0, Q3 6-0, Q4 5-0
Nebraska NET 11
22-3, 11-0 NC, 11-3 Conf
NET SOS 43, RPI SOS 55
KPI 15, SOR 6, WAB 8, BPI 18, POM 11, T Rank 12
Q1 5-3, Q2 6-0, Q3 5-0, Q4 6-0
Louisville NET 12
19-6, 11-2 NC, 8-4 Conf
NET SOS 25, RPI SOS 32
KPI 22, SOR 24, WAB 20, BPI 10, POM 14, T Rank 14
Q1 6-6, Q2 4-0, Q3 3-0, Q4 6-0
Others:
KU NET 14
19-6, 10-3 NC, 9-3 Conf
NET SOS 2, RPI SOS 3
KPI 7, SOR 11, WAB 10, BPI 14, POM 15, T Rank 13
Q1 7-6, Q2 6-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 4-0
TTU NET 16
19-6, 10-3 NC, 9-3 Conf
NET SOS 4, RPI SOS 1
KPI 9, SOR 13, WAB 11, BPI 19, POM 16, T Rank 11
Q1 7-6, Q2 4-0, Q3 5-0, Q4 3-0
BYU NET 20
19-6, 12-1 NC, 7-5 Conf
NET SOS 24, RPI SOS 14
KPI 23, SOR 26, WAB 19, BPI 20, POM 22, T Rank 31
Q1 5-6, Q2 6-0, Q3 3-0, Q4 5-0
You could probably make a case for ISU to be ahead of Illinois here, but ISU's low SOS probably counteracts the advantage in Q1+Q2 record (ISU 16-3, Ill 11-5). ISU's SOS should improve greatly in the next 4 games.
The metrics (other than NET) have Houston with the edge over ISU by the slimmest of margins.
Going to take everything going right for ISU, KU or TTU to get that top spot. But look at the probabilities for third place. Everyone between 14.8% and 28.4%. Thats pretty wild.
Ironically the conference is less nuts now in some senses than its halcyon days.
Many seasons the Big 12 of 10 would have ten "good" teams -- good enough to at least threaten even the best teams in the conference. Even the teams at the bottom of the table were dangerous except maybe one or two teams per season who were having a bad time and about to fire a coach.
Now?
The top is harder... nobody has the same density of national title contenders at the top.
But the middle and bottom are much softer...
TCU or UCF might have been the ninth team in the conference in the old alignment.
Now they're in the middle.
Somebody has to suck, though -- K-State seems a fine candidate for that role.
I mean yeah, it's weaker at the bottom, but I meant tougher to win at the top since a conference champion isn't decided on a level playing field. A team may get unlucky playing the toughest team twice, etc.
But 13 wins in the past would get you a conference title. But, this team also dropped 2 (more so 1 because good teams drop a game they shouldn't) games it likely shouldn't have.
If they go 4-1 even with the loss to Utah or Arizona State, they are locked in for a 2 seed IMO and a likely 1 seed tbh barring a loss in the first conference tourney game,
We're talking about wins against Purdue, St. John's, Iowa, Houston, Kansas, Arizona, Texas Tech and BYU even if they have one more bad loss and go 4-1. That's a 2 seed lock, at minimum.
I "accepted" Cincinnati at the time.
But that TCU loss stings. Hard.
The book isn't written, but the last few minutes of that game in Fort Worth might have cost them at least a share of the conference title and a #1 seed.
