The selection committee's perspective recently on conference tourneys seems to be that it only matters if you're a bubble team who needs one more Q1ish win.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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With all of the seeding rules, location preferences and everything else that goes into it, they have to have a drop dead point - beyond a contingency or two for a possible late stolen berth. There are 11 conference tournament finals and 10 conference semi-final games on Saturday and 5 conference tournament finals on Sunday afternoon.
This part I agree with. It's not likely but there could be years that those conference champs could have as many as 7-9 overall losses. Winning the games has to matter.
How about an update before the next AP ranking comes out:
Iowa State NET 8 (as of 15 FEB)
22-3, 13-0 NC, 9-3 Conf
Home 14-0, Away 4-3, Neutral 4-0
NET SOS 60, RPI SOS 74
KPI 11, SOR 8, WAB 9, BPI 6, POM 6, T Rank 8
Q1 6-3
..Q1a 3-1 (A 5 Purdue +23, A 14 KU -21, H 14 KU +18, N 24 St John’s +1)
..Q1b 3-2 (H 27 Iowa +4, A 45 TCU -7, A 47 BU +10, A 63 UC -9, A 72 OSU +13)
Q2 9-0
..Q2a 4-0 (H 47 BU +3, H 49 UCF +30, H 54 WVU +21, N 69 Syracuse +31)
..Q2b 5-0 (H 72 OSU +12, H 73 CU +30, N 81 Creighton +18, N 96 Miss St +16, A 101 KSU +34)
Q3 0-0
Q4 7-0 (H 261 Long Beach +31, H 276 Grambling +40, H 298 HCU +28, H 317 EIU +25, H 328 FDU +38, H 338 Stonehill +39, H 348 Alcorn +64)
Notes:
3 Home, 3 Away
Q1 4 (2H, 2A)
Q2 2 (1H, 1A)
Q3 0
Q4 0
Remaining schedule:
M 2/16 Q1a 4 UH
St 2/21 Q1a @ 20 BYU
Tu 2/24 Q2b @ 126 UU
St 2/28 Q1b 16 TTU
M 3/2 Q1a @ 3 UA
St 3/7 Q2b 71 ASU
3/10-14 Big 12 Tournament
Iowa State NET 8 (as of 15 FEB)
22-3, 13-0 NC, 9-3 Conf
Home 14-0, Away 4-3, Neutral 4-0
NET SOS 60, RPI SOS 74
KPI 11, SOR 8, WAB 9, BPI 6, POM 6, T Rank 8
Q1 6-3
..Q1a 3-1 (A 5 Purdue +23, A 14 KU -21, H 14 KU +18, N 24 St John’s +1)
..Q1b 3-2 (H 27 Iowa +4, A 45 TCU -7, A 47 BU +10, A 63 UC -9, A 72 OSU +13)
Q2 9-0
..Q2a 4-0 (H 47 BU +3, H 49 UCF +30, H 54 WVU +21, N 69 Syracuse +31)
..Q2b 5-0 (H 72 OSU +12, H 73 CU +30, N 81 Creighton +18, N 96 Miss St +16, A 101 KSU +34)
Q3 0-0
Q4 7-0 (H 261 Long Beach +31, H 276 Grambling +40, H 298 HCU +28, H 317 EIU +25, H 328 FDU +38, H 338 Stonehill +39, H 348 Alcorn +64)
Notes:
- NET started to rebound from TCU loss.
- ISU SOS held ground from a week ago.
- ISU resume looking good with 15 combined Q1 and Q2 wins and no losses below Q1b (thanks, Cincy!).
- Four of next five games are Q1.
- ASU snuck into Q2b range so currently no remaining games below Q2.
3 Home, 3 Away
Q1 4 (2H, 2A)
Q2 2 (1H, 1A)
Q3 0
Q4 0
Remaining schedule:
M 2/16 Q1a 4 UH
St 2/21 Q1a @ 20 BYU
Tu 2/24 Q2b @ 126 UU
St 2/28 Q1b 16 TTU
M 3/2 Q1a @ 3 UA
St 3/7 Q2b 71 ASU
3/10-14 Big 12 Tournament
Lundardi needs put out to pasture. He was just interviewed at halftime of Cincy and Utah on ESPN talking about the Big 12. He said Houston will beat Iowa State at home because Iowa State had a tough game Saturday and has to travel to Houston for a late game Monday. For someone in his position, that sort of mistake is beyond bad. How do you not know where a top 5 game is played that's on your own network.
The number of Saturday and Sunday conference tournament games have increased substantially since realignment has ballooned conferences. I understand that makes it difficult if not impossible for the committee to heavily consider those results with seeding. It seems like maybe there is middle ground between heavily weighting them and basically not at all. I just miss the importance of conference tournaments.
Every conference tournament game used to at least potentially matter for seeding, not just the winner of the championship game. Now even the winner doesn’t matter outside of one bid conferences. It’s still fun to watch but less so for me anyway. I don’t know what the answer is but it would be nice to increase the importance, even if only somewhat.
I wonder if a team has ever not had any Q3 games. That seems almost impossible to do.
Meh, the committee has been very seed friendly to the big 12 over the last 10 years. The conference has their respect.
The question I was responding to was about a second Big 12 #1 seed, assuming Arizona is a #1 and assuming us an Houston both have three loses and we win the head-to-head. Big 12 isn't getting three #1 seeds.
Which is so f*cking lazy. They used to consider the tournament and that was before they had multiple analytic tools that does 90% of their job.
As it sits today, we are ahead of Purdue. I assume they have an easier slate than we do coming home, which is why Torvik projects them above us.
I would think that BYU % goes up with the news that Saunders is out for the year.
Evan Miya thinks so.
I personally don't like ANY conference tourney finals on Sunday. Give the committee the entire day to decide seeding, locations etc without these last minute if X team wins Sunday afternoon they replace Y team and then team Z is eliminated. Although I suppose all of this is pretty much decided after Saturdays games anyway and they're just filling in the final spots depending on Sunday's games anyway.
Yeah, even if all were finished on Saturday, probably wouldn't make much difference, either. But, it could allow the possibility of some seed adjustment early Sunday, if warranted by results.
I rarely watch much of the games on Sunday anymore, haven't for quite a few years. It seems anticlimactic and by then I'm focused on Selection Sunday reveal.
I was glad when Big 12 shifted schedule back to conclude on Saturday, instead of being on Sunday.
Milan's ORTG is outrageous, but his usage is relatively low for a marquis player (18.7%) and he doesn't do much else outside shoot/score. Doesn't really rebound or create, as you can see. And he's improved on defense since his freshman year, but I still don't think you'd call it a selling point of his.
In terms of offensive firepower, he's top-notch, one of the best pure snipers in the history of college basketball. But he's not the complete "do everything" player of most guys on that list.
