2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[CascadeClone]

Cool but you know that every really good team doesn't execute fully for every game and that concepts like playing the same way for a full 40 minutes are not real, right?

If ISU connects on 3 more 3P's and BU hits 3 less prayers does that mean ISU executed better?

I mean technically, yes, they did execute better. Shooting is part of execution.

I do agree with your point though. No team is perfect a whole game, and no team puts up a 99 game score every game thru the season. Even the best have subpar performances - they're human beings, and young ones at that. That's what makes it exciting - you might be playing someone much better, but if you play your A game, and they don't - you have a shot.

Here's hoping all ISU's opponents in the NCAA put up 60 gamescores!

 

[madguy30]

Teams that play well, are consistent at a high level, are usually consider good teams. Teams that are good and able to string several well played games together usually go far in the tournament.

I prefer my team to go far. If they don't I'll be disappointed. I won't have the welp guess they just played mediocre and better luck next year thoughts. That's the reality I'm in.

But if they play well but still get beat?

 

[bosco]

But if they play well but still get beat?

That I can deal with. We did what we could but just ran into a better team or drew some bad breaks.

But to lose on things we can control which is usually execution that's disappointing. That's why I'm miffed about Sat's game. Because it's training for what's coming up.

 

[madguy30]

That I can deal with. We did what we could but just ran into a better team or drew some bad breaks.

But to lose on things we can control which is usually execution that's disappointing. That's why I'm miffed about Sat's game. Because it's training for what's coming up.

What if they play poorly by whatever definition you'll find to use but get to a FF? Still miffed?

 

[VeloClone]

What was frustrating about the last game to me was despite the struggle with the outside shot, if they just cut out most of the lazy pass turnovers they still win this game comfortably by double digits.

That is easily correctable.

I would also like to see a bit more emphasis on back door cuts when a team is overplaying the passing lanes. Make them pay for trying to poach those passes up top. That is the quickest way to get them to think twice about shooting the gap on those passes.

 

[VeloClone]

What if they play poorly by whatever definition you'll find to use but get to a FF? Still miffed?

This would piss me off even more!

 

[madguy30]

This would piss me off even more!

Dog**** performance!!

 

[SCISUFAN]

But if they play well but still get beat?

I'll go out on a limb and say, if we stop the careles turnovers, rebound effectively, and hit our Free Throws...we won't lose.

 

[madguy30]

I'll go out on a limb and say, if we stop the careles turnovers, rebound effectively, and hit our Free Throws...we won't lose.

They could do all of those things and still absolutely get beat by anyone in the top 5-10 teams in the country.

ISU is good but would still be at an athletic disadvantage against several of those teams.

 

[Texbudman]

In March all it takes is one bad/mediocre performance and that's it. You go home.

For every single team in the tournament

 

[Cyclonepride]

That I can deal with. We did what we could but just ran into a better team or drew some bad breaks.

But to lose on things we can control which is usually execution that's disappointing. That's why I'm miffed about Sat's game. Because it's training for what's coming up.

Almost every great team I've ever followed in college basketball over the last 40+ years struggled at times against teams they should have beaten handily. It's human nature, the kids are not going to get up against everyone for 31 games straight and you wouldn't want them to. The only thing that is really important is that they're coming out with W after W. I am sure that they are really excited to get back to the real tests of their schedule.

 

[Texbudman]

Teams that play well, are consistent at a high level, are usually consider good teams. Teams that are good and able to string several well played games together usually go far in the tournament.

I prefer my team to go far. If they don't I'll be disappointed. I won't have the welp guess they just played mediocre and better luck next year thoughts. That's the reality I'm in.

You prefer your team to go far. How is that different than every other fan in the world?

 

[Texbudman]

Almost every great team I've ever followed in college basketball over the last 40+ years struggled at times against teams they should have beaten handily. It's human nature, the kids are not going to get up against everyone for 31 games straight and you wouldn't want them to. The only thing that is really important is that they're coming out with W after W. I am sure that they are really excited to get back to the real tests of their schedule.

Pro teams too struggle against lesser competition. Think they are called upsets

 

[LivntheCyLife]

This has been an interesting discussion. The thing that scares me about this team and every TJ team is opponent's turnovers.

It's great to be a team that generates 15.5 turnovers per game. But then you go look at the losses and close games and see the opponent turnovers:
St. John's - 9
KU - 8
Cincinnati - 7
Baylor - 9

I know ISU can win against overmatched guards. But the gaudy metrics always feel like a bit of fool's gold because of the turnover margin in non-con games.

I think this team has more potential than several of the recent ones because of Jefferson and Momcilovic on offense in the halfcourt, but it will come down to that as there won't be many overmatched guards the rest of the way.

 

[Texbudman]

This has been an interesting discussion. The thing that scares me about this team and every TJ team is opponent's turnovers.

It's great to be a team that generates 15.5 turnovers per game. But then you go look at the losses and close games and see the opponent turnovers:
St. John's - 9
KU - 8
Cincinnati - 7
Baylor - 9

I know ISU can win against overmatched guards. But the gaudy metrics always feel like a bit of fool's gold because of the turnover margin in non-con games.

I think this team has more potential than several of the recent ones because of Jefferson and Momcilovic on offense in the halfcourt, but it will come down to that as there won't be many overmatched guards the rest of the way.

I agree but this team has proven it can win in different ways more so than past TJ teams. We all know getting turnovers is great and fuels our offense but I feel this team could win a grind out, low possession game that will inevitably happen come tournament time

 

[NYCYFan]

In March all it takes is one bad/mediocre performance and that's it. You go home.

And? That's the case with every team, not just Iowa State. Just ask #1 Virginia some years back.

 

[bosco]

Almost every great team I've ever followed in college basketball over the last 40+ years struggled at times against teams they should have beaten handily. It's human nature, the kids are not going to get up against everyone for 31 games straight and you wouldn't want them to. The only thing that is really important is that they're coming out with W after W. I am sure that they are really excited to get back to the real tests of their schedule.

What if they play poorly by whatever definition you'll find to use but get to a FF? Still miffed?

I always felt to win a NC you need to be very good, then perform up to you ability, and be a little lucky.

Look at the UConn team in 2014. They won by 2 in OT against a 10 seed St Joe's. Then faced a Niang-less ISU due to the injury. Which I feel that game would have been completely different if we had Niang.

In 2017 UNC played fantastic down the stretch and won by 2 against UK and 1 against Oregon. You could say anything less then their near best and they would have lost those games. I'm sure there are a handful of plays in those games where if the breaks fell a different way they lose.

We'll probably need a little luck to make the FF but I would rather be good then lucky because Lady Luck is a fickle mistress.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I always felt to win a NC you need to be very good, then perform up to you ability, and be a little lucky.

Look at the UConn team in 2014. They won by 2 in OT against a 10 seed St Joe's. Then faced a Niang-less ISU due to the injury. Which I feel that game would have been completely different if we had Niang.

In 2017 UNC played fantastic down the stretch and won by 2 against UK and 1 against Oregon. You could say anything less then their near best and they would have lost those games. I'm sure there are a handful of plays in those games where if the breaks fell a different way they lose.

We'll probably need a little luck to make the FF but I would rather be good then lucky because Lady Luck is a fickle mistress.

Yep, you need to get there often, with a team that is capable of going on a streak. I'm confident we've got the team for a deep run, but as always, it is going to take some luck too.

 

[bosco]

You prefer your team to go far. How is that different than every other fan in the world?

Apparently it's different because I want the
Team to play up to their ability. Rather then win with mediocre performance.

 

[rosshm16]

I would also like to see a bit more emphasis on back door cuts when a team is overplaying the passing lanes. Make them pay for trying to poach those passes up top. That is the quickest way to get them to think twice about shooting the gap on those passes.

Heise seems quite good at these cuts.