As good as Jefferson is in other aspects of the game, he is 6th in the Big 12 in turnovers currently.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
Jumped back up to 5th in kenpom at 31.34. This is how the team needs to play. Active hands and flying on defense, and ball movement ball movement on offense. I hope TJ drove that nail in during that 2 game losing streak.
His interview from yesterday was really good and hit on how to move forward.
@Sigmapolis, I'm really looking forward to the post-UCF update!
The computer models generally expected the Cyclones to win that game (84% on Torvik before the game) so winning it only "fills in" that remaining 16% rather than providing much upside.
Blowing them out by 30 admittedly helps, though.
Up from #15 to #11 on Torvik after the "big" (more in the MoV sense than the quality of opponent sense) over the Golden Knights. Certainly got the ship righted after two letdown games.
Hopefully we can get 5 of the next 6. That'd put us at 11-3 in conference. Then split the Houston, BYU, TT and Arizona games, beat Utah and Arizona State to finish 13-5. Sign me up for that right now. I'd be pretty happy with 12-6.
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18 game conference schedule. If I'm reading correctly, looks like you're shooting for 13-5.
If you want to get back to being solidly a 2 seed with an outside chance at a 1 you have to win out at home (6 wins). While losing to Houston wouldn't hurt, if you drop that and BYU and Arizona, your marquee win come March 3rd would still be Purdue in early December. You should beat Kansas State and Utah (8 wins). I was penciling in BYU and Arizona as losses even when Iowa State was undefeated (8 wins, 2 losses). So that leaves Oklahoma State and TCU as toss-ups, obviously not in terms of chances to win on paper but in terms of being challenging road games. If you split those that's the same 26-5 as TeamRankings. I would rather split them and beat Houston than win both but lose to Houston
14-4 gets you a two seed at worst
12-6 is a four/five seed, depending on who the wins and losses are to
One seed is likely gone without significant help:
- Duke gets areally bad ACC to protect themselves,
- The Big East is really bad this year, so UCONN should cruise.
- Arizona can loose two games and still be ahead of us, given their resume
- Michigan (see AZ comment above), plus the brand of Michigan carries more weight than ISU
- Gonzaga has maybe one hard game left, so they should stay above ISU
- Nebraska and ISU are going to be fighting for seeding, with NU have a 2-game lead on us
- NU has two easy games before a stretch of 4/6 games being Q1. They will either lock in a top 2 seed or come back to earth fast in February
I've recalibrated to goal being a 2 seed. While a 1 seed is technically still possible feels like it will be tough (hope they prove me wrong). Feels like the bench and the freshman may just be a little too inconsistent to hit that 1 seed line but hopefully are playing well by the tourney to set yourself up for a run. 3 seed would be a little disappointing after the start to the season but still good. If we slip to a 4 or lower feels like some injuries occurred or something of that nature.
I agree, it's just I thought a lot of that was true even when Iowa State was undefeated, yet they were being given the benefit of the doubt...
Barring significant injuries and assuming they cruise through their conferences, Duke and UConn are the most deserving to me. Arizona is also deserving, but starting the last week of January they go to BYU, Kansas, and Houston, play BYU and Kansas twice, and play Tech at home, all before they play Iowa State. need them to drop a lot of those. Michigan's been incredible, but their only true test was on a neutral court—granted, they passed with flying colors. need them to lose @ Michigan State, @ Purdue, and @ Illinois, at the least. Gonzaga will probably cruise. completely agree Iowa State will be fighting with Nebraska for seeding, though I'd much rather them be the top 2 seed and Iowa State the last than them get a 1 and Iowa State end up in their region... It's crazy they're having their best season in program history but may get boxed out of a 1 seed because of unbalanced scheduling, only playing Michigan on the road.
ending on a hopeful note—to me, it's pretty crazy that less than two weeks ago it was gospel that Michigan, Arizona, Iowa State, and maybe Duke were "just a cut above the rest," no way around it. Like, not just on CF. While it stinks that last week may preclude Iowa State playing itself back to a 1, I do think things could look a lot different two weeks from now
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lunardi must've went to bed early last night b/c he's got Purdue as the 6th overall seed still after losing to UCLA last night.
Iowa state can move back with losses but not purdue!
he's suck a fkn hack
Iowa state can move back with losses but not purdue!
he's suck a fkn hack
Back on the #2 line after a good and thorough win against the Golden Knights.
Gonna be hard to fight back up to #1 unless we pulverize the rest of the Big 12 from here on out.
And I still like this team, but it is hard to predict 2-0 on the Arizona/BYU trips.
Gonna be hard to fight back up to #1 unless we pulverize the rest of the Big 12 from here on out.
And I still like this team, but it is hard to predict 2-0 on the Arizona/BYU trips.
How likely is it that our head to head to Purdue comes into play? (even if it's just for a spot on the two line)
