2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[bluestarcyclone]

I don't have to convince myself that this team is less than I thought it was before last night just to deal with a loss at KU. It's kind of ridiculous to me that a lot of you feel like you have to lower your expectations so you don't lose your **** after a loss and can enjoy the season, but you do you.

There's nothing wrong with reevaluating expectations after a loss, as it can be easy to get pretty high while things are going well. But there's no reason to go overboard the other direction yet.

Now, if one loss turns into two this weekend, it'll be a lot more concerning. But it'll still be january, and still plenty of time to right the ship even if some **** happens.

 

[MJ271]

I mentioned in the game thread that last night sucked, but didn't necessarily change what I think this team can do. However, to the extent that I am concerned, it probably focuses on the defense.

This entire season, the defense has been a bit of a step down from at least Otz's first three years and more in line with last year. That has been somewhat overshadowed by people discussing Toure's defense and Buchanan's better defensive fit than Jackson had--both of which might be accurate, but haven't necessarily led to better team defense.

However, in this recent stretch, the defense has declined, losing some of its turnover-forcing calling card. The last 6 games represent 6 of the 7 lowest turnover-forcing games this season, in terms of turnover rate. From the eye test so far in Big 12 play, it also seems like they're allowing a lot more dribble penetration, leading to some of those wide-open dunks that we saw last night. Toure, especially, seems a step slower than he was in the high-profile non-conference teams.

But still, we've seen this team play at a high level and consistently do so against P5 teams in non-conference play. I don't think this team has necessarily been "figured out." Teams go through a lot of ups and downs over the course of the season, and hopefully, this is just a bit of a down stretch that all came to a head last night against a very motivated and talented team.

 

[DSM4Cy]

I mentioned in the game thread that last night sucked, but didn't necessarily change what I think this team can do. However, to the extent that I am concerned, it probably focuses on the defense.

This entire season, the defense has been a bit of a step down from at least Otz's first three years and more in line with last year. That has been somewhat overshadowed by people discussing Toure's defense and Buchanan's better defensive fit than Jackson had--both of which might be accurate, but haven't necessarily led to better team defense.

However, in this recent stretch, the defense has declined, losing some of its turnover-forcing calling card. The last 6 games represent 6 of the 7 lowest turnover-forcing games this season, in terms of turnover rate. From the eye test so far in Big 12 play, it also seems like they're allowing a lot more dribble penetration, leading to some of those wide-open dunks that we saw last night. Toure, especially, seems a step slower than he was in the high-profile non-conference teams.

But still, we've seen this team play at a high level and consistently do so against P5 teams in non-conference play. I don't think this team has necessarily been "figured out." Teams go through a lot of ups and downs over the course of the season, and hopefully, this is just a bit of a down stretch that all came to a head last night against a very motivated and talented team.

I would argue that last night was our 3rd-toughest league game, behind only @ BYU and @ Arizona. 15-3 would have us in contention to win the league, IMO. Although in that case, we may have to beat Arizona to win a tiebreaker or something. I could also see Arizona or Houston go 16-2 or 17-1. But last night wasn’t a shocking loss, it was maybe shocking as to the margin and how bad the first half was. Winning in AFH is hard and KU was as desperate as they’ve been under Self. Just lost to WV, looking at starting 1-3 in league play, out of the top 25 but certainly with talent and athleticism to be ranked much higher. We got their A game.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Literally every other contender for 1, 2 and 3 seeds played a more difficult non-con than Iowa State. Nebraska is the exception but I don't think they'll legitimately be at that level on Selection Sunday.

KenPom Non-Con SOS-

Michigan 14
Arizona 110
Purdue 37
Iowa State 254
Vanderbilt 130
Illinois 104
Houston 167
Gonzaga 36
Duke 57
UConn 30

There comes a point where you can't play 7 or 8 absolutely dog **** games every year, especially when you're good enough to roll through any Q3 opponent you can which improves the overall profile. Purdue played 7 Q3s and 2 Q4s, they weren't challenged in any of them, but it makes that number so much better.

I've always been a proponent of more aggressively seeking out peer games in the non-con.

1.) Selfishly the fan in me likes watching good games against good teams over cupcakes. Yes you're going to lose some of those games but a "good loss" is better than a meaningless Q4 win.

2.) The weak non-con SOS is a weak beam in the structure of Iowa State basketball since TJ took over. The program is at the point reputationally now where good teams will want to play you.

3.) The Big East/SEC/Pac challenges are gone and seemingly dead and a rumored Big 12/Big Ten challenge never materialized. All the more reason to schedule more bespoke matchups.

Keep the 3-4 games in Las Vegas.

Keep Iowa on the schedule now that they seem to be headed in the right direction.

Creighton should be a perpetual home/home opposite the Iowa series.

Reconsider playing Drake and UNI instead of low-major programs.

Call up one other Big Ten team per year to play them -- the Purdue series is great!

Do the same for 2-3 more Big East, SEC, and ACC teams.

I'd rather watch us play Villanova, Arkansas, and Louisville then another Houston Christian. Heck, Gonzaga is probably always looking for a SOS booster. I'm sure they'd take that call with great interest.

Keep some cupcake games sure but more like 3-4 than 6-7.

 

[CPG4ISU]

Literally every other contender for 1, 2 and 3 seeds played a more difficult non-con than Iowa State. Nebraska is the exception but I don't think they'll legitimately be at that level on Selection Sunday.

KenPom Non-Con SOS-

Michigan 14
Arizona 110
Purdue 37
Iowa State 254
Vanderbilt 130
Illinois 104
Houston 167
Gonzaga 36
Duke 57
UConn 30

There comes a point where you can't play 7 or 8 absolutely dog **** games every year, especially when you're good enough to roll through any Q3 opponent you can which improves the overall profile. Purdue played 7 Q3s and 2 Q4s, they weren't challenged in any of them, but it makes that number so much better.

No doubt some of the BUY game Q3/Q4 competition was atrocious, but come Selection Sunday, it may come down to the specific quad 1 wins you picked up in con-conference, and ISU will have as good or better of a resume than almost all of those teams.

 

[NorthCyd]

There's nothing wrong with reevaluating expectations after a loss, as it can be easy to get pretty high while things are going well. But there's no reason to go overboard the other direction yet.

Now, if one loss turns into two this weekend, it'll be a lot more concerning. But it'll still be january, and still plenty of time to right the ship even if some **** happens.

The next 3 games will tell us a lot about this team. We shouldn't let one half of terrible basketball completely wipe out what the rest of the season prior to this says about this team.

 

[Cloned4Life]

See, I just don't get this. Barring injuries, this is a team that entered conference play being predicted to go 15-3 or 16-2 in the league. Losing that many would mean we were nowhere close to winning the league, again, in a year in which we entered league play as the co-favorites or maybe 2nd behind Arizona. Would it be a good season for ISU historically? No doubt. But it would be a disappointment based on how this current year's team had played in the non-conference.

Yeah that is really a downer to fans say stuff like that. Happy with 6 losses in conference!? After the start we had!? That would be extremely disappointing and discouraging.

 

[NoCreativity]

I said this in a previous thread, but I think we got exposed pretty badly. If this doesn't get cleaned up quick, it's going to be another early NCAA Tournament exit. The faster we accept that this year's team is a good/solid team and not a great/elite team the more we can enjoy this season.

It's too early to make that determination. The problem is both the Purdue and Kansas games were likely outliers and if we played both those games another 9 times id expect them to be much closer.

 

[Die4Cy]

What I've seen is Big 12 teams with the talent and ability to beat people off the dribble are initiating offense well beyond the three point line and if ISU meets them out there, that offense has a lot more room to operate against ISU's typical style of defense, particularly when the team is good at ball reversal as KU was last night.

Baylor was the first team where I noticed it, but KU was doing the same last night. Prior to last night, ISU has been able to generate enough offense inside to keep us in these games. But KU had long guards and shot blockers to make this more difficult. We will be seeing a lot more of this, I imagine.

 

[NENick]

See, I just don't get this. Barring injuries, this is a team that entered conference play being predicted to go 15-3 or 16-2 in the league. Losing that many would mean we were nowhere close to winning the league, again, in a year in which we entered league play as the co-favorites or maybe 2nd behind Arizona. Would it be a good season for ISU historically? No doubt. But it would be a disappointment based on how this current year's team had played in the non-conference.

Before last night, the top 4 Big12 teams were 62-2! I've thought all along that ending the conference season ahead of any of those 3 would be a monumental task. Then throw in TTech and Kansas.

I think Houston wins it. I hope last night was an aberration. Finishing in the top 4 will be an historically great conference season. Then bring on the Madness.

 

[not-the-manager]

glass half-empty

• The offense grinding to a halt is real. It's partly due to Jefferson and Lipsey looking exhausted, but it's mid-January and there are no bye weeks. Toure and Buchanan are not being defended like they're scoring threats, which is going to make any iso possessions that much harder
• The defense is disjointed. Either players aren't communicating well or aren't executing as well as they need to in order for a system as aggressive as Otz's to work

glass half-full

• I don't yet see an offense that, like last season post-injuries, is out of levers to pull and needs an other-worldly performance every game to have a chance. I'm trying not to oversimplify, but I really think just sharing the ball better would cure a lot of what ails them. Which is something that can be corrected, unlike an injury
• If Otz and his staff can coach one thing, it's defense
• On Sunday if you'd had to swallow a 1-1 week, you'd much rather have laid an egg at Allen Fieldhouse. There's a world in which Kansas finishes seventh or sixth in the conference and MOV is the only thing about that game that haunts you. As of today I don't think even getting blown out at Kansas looks definitively worse than losing to Wisconsin at home, for example

Now, you can't let things snowball, and my alarm bells are ringing. But I'm trying to stay balanced

 

[fsanford]

glass half-empty

• The offense grinding to a halt is real. It's partly due to Jefferson and Lipsey looking exhausted, but it's mid-January and there are no bye weeks. Toure and Buchanan are not being defended like they're scoring threats, which is going to make any iso possessions that much harder
• The defense is disjointed. Either players aren't communicating well or aren't executing as well as they need to in order for a system as aggressive as Otz's to work

glass half-full

• I don't yet see an offense that, like last season post-injuries, is out of levers to pull and needs an other-worldly performance every game to have a chance. I'm trying not to oversimplify, but I really think just sharing the ball better would cure a lot of what ails them. Which is something that can be corrected, unlike an injury
• If Otz and his staff can coach one thing, it's defense
• On Sunday if you'd had to swallow a 1-1 week, you'd much rather have laid an egg at Allen Fieldhouse. There's a world in which Kansas finishes seventh or sixth in the conference and MOV is the only thing about that game that haunts you. As of today I don't think even getting blown out at Kansas looks definitively worse than losing to Wisconsin at home, for example

Now, you can't let things snowball, and my alarm bells are ringing. But I'm trying to stay balanced

Very fair recap

 

[MartyFine]

 

[rosshm16]

See, I just don't get this. Barring injuries, this is a team that entered conference play being predicted to go 15-3 or 16-2 in the league. Losing that many would mean we were nowhere close to winning the league, again, in a year in which we entered league play as the co-favorites or maybe 2nd behind Arizona. Would it be a good season for ISU historically? No doubt. But it would be a disappointment based on how this current year's team had played in the non-conference.

Yeah that is really a downer to fans say stuff like that. Happy with 6 losses in conference!? After the start we had!? That would be extremely disappointing and discouraging.

At the start of the year if you told me we'd go 25-6 in the regular season I would have said sign me up! But of course with the better-than-expected non-con, we recalibrate our expectations.

 

[fsanford]

At the start of the year if you told me we'd go 25-6 in the regular season I would have said sign me up! But of course with the better-than-expected non-con, we recalibrate our expectations.

They got a lot of mileage blowing out Purdue.
Cuse, Creighton and even St Johns turning out to be so so.. Played with their Iowa food...And the are starting to get further exposed in the Big 10

Figured first loss would be at Baylor cuz ISU sucks there. After we got by then figured KU.

I did think they could go on a run after KU game, fingers crossed. The next group of teams is in the same class as the Vegas Group they played.

Hoping for the best

 

[not-the-manager]

What I've seen is Big 12 teams with the talent and ability to beat people off the dribble are initiating offense well beyond the three point line and if ISU meets them out there, that offense has a lot more room to operate against ISU's typical style of defense, particularly when the team is good at ball reversal as KU was last night.

Baylor was the first team where I noticed it, but KU was doing the same last night. Prior to last night, ISU has been able to generate enough offense inside to keep us in these games. But KU had long guards and shot blockers to make this more difficult. We will be seeing a lot more of this, I imagine.

completely agree...but let's remember Drew and Self are as good as it gets when it comes to offensive coaches in the conference. It can be really hard to watch when a team carves up Iowa State's defense and they don't make drastic changes, but I believe Otz is 6-3 against Baylor, so I wouldn't say there's a fatal flaw. He is 3-6 against Kansas, though considering virtually no one wins there, .500 is about the best you can hope for. (I'm including Big 12 Tournament games.)

 

[bawbie]

I said this in a previous thread, but I think we got exposed pretty badly. If this doesn't get cleaned up quick, it's going to be another early NCAA Tournament exit. The faster we accept that this year's team is a good/solid team and not a great/elite team the more we can enjoy this season.

I would suggest that you try not to tell other people how to enjoy the team and what they have to accept

 

[Sigmapolis]

At the start of the year if you told me we'd go 25-6 in the regular season I would have said sign me up! But of course with the better-than-expected non-con, we recalibrate our expectations.

Funny how that recalibration is invariably one direction, though.

I can't think of any seasons in the last ~15 years providing a counterexample.

 

[Cyclonepride]

There's nothing wrong with reevaluating expectations after a loss, as it can be easy to get pretty high while things are going well. But there's no reason to go overboard the other direction yet.

Now, if one loss turns into two this weekend, it'll be a lot more concerning. But it'll still be january, and still plenty of time to right the ship even if some **** happens.

It was our first real adversity of the year too. I mean, they were down in the Iowa game, but Iowa isn't great and it was at home, so there was no reason to lose their composure, and during the Purdue game, they never really made a big run on us to test it. Most of the games have been a back and forth affair until we ground it out and took control.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

I've always been a proponent of more aggressively seeking out peer games in the non-con.

1.) Selfishly the fan in me likes watching good games against good teams over cupcakes. Yes you're going to lose some of those games but a "good loss" is better than a meaningless Q4 win.

2.) The weak non-con SOS is a weak beam in the structure of Iowa State basketball since TJ took over. The program is at the point reputationally now where good teams will want to play you.

3.) The Big East/SEC/Pac challenges are gone and seemingly dead and a rumored Big 12/Big Ten challenge never materialized. All the more reason to schedule more bespoke matchups.

Keep the 3-4 games in Las Vegas.

Keep Iowa on the schedule now that they seem to be headed in the right direction.

Creighton should be a perpetual home/home opposite the Iowa series.

Reconsider playing Drake and UNI instead of low-major programs.

Call up one other Big Ten team per year to play them -- the Purdue series is great!

Do the same for 2-3 more Big East, SEC, and ACC teams.

I'd rather watch us play Villanova, Arkansas, and Louisville then another Houston Christian. Heck, Gonzaga is probably always looking for a SOS booster. I'm sure they'd take that call with great interest.

Keep some cupcake games sure but more like 3-4 than 6-7.

Say you replace Stonehill, Grambling, Houston Christian and FDU with Middle Tennessee, Wright State, Western Kentucky and Kent State.

You still win all those game easily even though they're probably competitive for a little longer, there's at least some name recognition to make season tickets more worth it and a 20 point win does everything metrics wise that a 50 point win does against a 300+ team.

I completely agree that the program is ready to be more aggressive with big games in the non-con. You aren't going to be punished for taking them and you can't just rely on Player's Era to get you the games you want, you may end up in a year where you get a bad draw.