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2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

cyclones500 said:
Thank you for compiling that. A lotta work!!

I notice Gonzaga crept back to #4 in the thru 12/23 rank (NET), above ISU, but not a lot of opportunity to stay at that level with remaining schedule. SMC is top 30 currently, only two other WCC teams in top 100.

I won't claim Iowa State can maintain its position, obviously WAY too early. But if we continue to perform close to current level, we'll be in a good shape.
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Yeah, Gonzaga has to do their work in the Non-con since their conference is weak. But the committee will continue to double count their non-con strength while single counting power conference team's strong conference strength. I know you are all sick of hearing it from me but they have an overall SOS and a non-con SOS of their nitty gritty sheets for each team. So Gonzaga's strength will be counted twice since the non-con is in the overall as well as the non-con while the strength of the power conference team's schedules - their gauntlet of a conference schedule - will only be counted in the overall number.

They could just as easilly have a non-con number and a conference number so each number is only counted once - or have all three numbers. It is crazy that nobody sees the problem there. They ***** about ISU gaming the system while they have a "gaming the system" for the top mid major teams built right into the numbers they rely on.

Yeah, those numbers change daily even for teams that aren't playing based on opponents' games and results and those for the teams around them in the NET. We could update daily but that would be crazy. I will just do it from time to time - as you said, it is a lot of work. ;)
 
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1UNI2ISU said:
They're a much better offensive team which the NET LOVES.
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Yeah, the only possible explanation is underlying efficiency metrics. It's certain not strength of record. MSU is 4-1 in Quad 1 which is one of the best marks so far in the country this year.

Wish there was more transparency with NET like there is with KenPom and others.
 
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1UNI2ISU said:
They're a much better offensive team which the NET LOVES.
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NET also seems to love blowing out bad opponents, which Iowa has certainly done at times.

And I get it, its not necessarily easy to blow all the bad teams out (we've certainly had our share of sleepy games), but sometimes it feels that while the metrics expect a linear difference in scores as the gap between teams grows, that difference is actually more exponential if the better team wants it to be. And as teams have figured out this quirk in the metrics, more are exploiting it.
 
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Sorry for being late on this one.

Every adult here for Christmas either has the flu (which I had this week) or is violently morning sick.

And the toddler... is a runaway freight train. Kind of fighting the good fight on my own nowadays.

Anyways.

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GoodOleDays said:
Which teams are ranked above ISU in terms of seedline and odds to win the Natty? Obviously Michigan and Arizona
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Here is their current S-curve.

Iowa State seems to have passed Purdue for the last #1 since the quoted email went out.

1767162420444.png

Here is their top-ten national title odds. Iowa State comes in at #6. Michigan is... really good.

1767162554756.png
 
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VeloClone said:
Yeah, Gonzaga has to do their work in the Non-con since their conference is weak. But the committee will continue to double count their non-con strength while single counting power conference team's strong conference strength. I know you are all sick of hearing it from me but they have an overall SOS and a non-con SOS of their nitty gritty sheets for each team. So Gonzaga's strength will be counted twice since the non-con is in the overall as well as the non-con while the strength of the power conference team's schedules - their gauntlet of a conference schedule - will only be counted in the overall number.

They could just as easilly have a non-con number and a conference number so each number is only counted once - or have all three numbers. It is crazy that nobody sees the problem there. They ***** about ISU gaming the system while they have a "gaming the system" for the top mid major teams built right into the numbers they rely on.

Yeah, those numbers change daily even for teams that aren't playing based on opponents' games and results and those for the teams around them in the NET. We could update daily but that would be crazy. I will just do it from time to time - as you said, it is a lot of work. ;)
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There are few things that annoy me worse than the pundits dinging a team that plays a hellacious conference schedule for a weakish non-conference schedule. The only thing that should matter is overall schedule or it gives way too much credit for weak leagues that bolster their weak ass schedule in the non-con.
 
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Cyclonepride said:
There are few things that annoy me worse than the pundits dinging a team that plays a hellacious conference schedule for a weakish non-conference schedule. The only thing that should matter is overall schedule or it gives way too much credit for weak leagues that bolster their weak ass schedule in the non-con.
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It's super-annoying for sure. Gonzaga for example gets a free pass on not playing a competitive game from late December - early March.
 
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Big 12 Insiders talk basketball. Sounds like Darryn Peterson's family is heavily involved and insist he doesn't play unless he is 100% healthy. They have ISU #2 and AZ #1 right now in Big 12 but say any of the top four (AZ, ISU, Houston, BYU) could win the Natty.

 
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Iowa State NET 4
13-0, 13-0 NC, 0-0 Conf
Home 8-0, Away 1-0, Neutral 4-0
NET SOS 83, RPI SOS 235
KPI 13, SOR 3, WAB 6, BPI 6, POM 3, T Rank 8

Q1 4-0
..Q1a 2-0 (A 6 Purdue +23, H 13 Iowa +4)
..Q1b 2-0 (N 29 St John’s +1, N 49 Creighton +18)
Q2 1-0
..Q2a 0-0
..Q2b 1-0 (N 85 Syracuse +31)
Q3 1-0 (N 102 Miss St +16)
Q4 7-0 (H 214 Grambling +40, H 261 Long Beach +31, H 283 HCU +28, H 316 EIU +25, H 342 Alcorn +64, H 347 Stonehill +39, H 353 FDU +38)

Notes:
  • ISU resume looking better with 2 Q1a and 2 Q1b wins.
  • Iowa moved up to a Q1a game but is precariously there.
  • Creighton moved up to a Q1b game, also precarious.
  • Syracuse is now just 10 spots away from moving up to a Q2a game.
  • Miss St making a charge and now just 2 spots from a Q2b game.
Remaining games:
9 Home, 9 Away
Q1 9 (3H, 6A)
Q2 5 (2H, 3A)
Q3 4 (4H, 0A)
Q4 0 (0H, 0A)

Upcoming schedule (next 10):
(Q1 3, Q2 4, Q3 3)
F 1/2 Q3 90 WVU
W 1/7 Q1a @ 40 BU
St 1/10 Q3 76 OSU
Tu 1/13 Q1b @ 17 KU
St 1/17 Q2a @ 91 UC
Tu 1/20 Q2a 36 UCF
St 1/24 Q2a @ 76 OSU
Th 1/29 Q3 81 CU
Sn 2/1 Q1b @ 63 KSU
St 2/7 Q2a 40 BU
 
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Kinch said:
Kansas state way not covering against LA Monroe, one of the worst teams they will play tells me all you need to know about Tang.
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We didn't cover against our last few buy games either which is the reason there has been the slightest of dips in our metrics. Although your supposition is correct the basis of it is not so certain.
 
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