2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[NoCreativity]

Let it go. Making the final 4 is really hard and takes some luck. In all those years, how often has ISU had enough talent for this to be even a remote possibility? Of those handful of years, injuries and unlucky draws have derailed the team, along with maybe 2 or three others that were head-scratchers.
It's not a major problem.

If you read my post I said its "getting to be a major problem". I never said it was a current problem that's giving me anxiety or keeping me up all night.

Now if we continue be this competitive on a national level and still dont have one in the next 10-15 years while we have another 20-30 games then I might upgrade it to the next level of concern.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Zero % chance that happens. The Big 12 is the best conference in the country. The conference winner is getting a #1 seed.

I think the model anticipates (and not without good reason) the top ~six in the Big 12 are really good and could very easily turn into a circular firing squad where no one or two establish themselves as undeniably the best (essentially as Houston did last season) to really lock down that #1 seed no doubt.

We could all play one another into #2 through #4 seeds if something like that notion happens.

I don't think the model is going to have a "committee brain" factor where somebody is gonna say "c'mon they won the Big 12 yeah yeah their W/L record isn't as good as Gonzaga and is slightly lower than you usually expect from a #1 seed out of a high-major conference, but they look great in the metrics, have a bunch of great wins and no bad losses and we can't dock them for playing in the best conference."

Maybe that human factor asserts itself, but I doubt the model accounts for it.

 

[not-the-manager]

Took a look at three point shooting this morning. From Barttorvik, a graph of players with at least 25 3PA this season, charted on three-point percentage and three-point attempts per 100 possessions.

Momcilovic certainly sticks out, and Batemon is among a pretty elite tier as well. The red dots toward the bottom are, from left to right, Heise, Lipsey, Toure, and Jefferson.

View attachment 164187

people understandably commenting on Momcilovic, but Batemon’s rate is remarkable to me given he’s a freshman and playing for Otz. tells me he has a pretty green light. (And yes, the staff has a lot of trust in another freshman, but Toure is basically Lipsey 2.0, his value as a defender alone can’t be benched or put on a pitch count. Batemon isn’t asked to do as much, but is apparently told he can get shots up.)

 

[Letterkenny]

There's a whole bunch of people that don't care or remember who made it like ten years ago.

Id have a hard time coming up with last years final 4 off the top of my head. Two years ago? Forget about it. Making the final 4 is a great accomplishment, but yeah no one really remembers.

 

[RedDog]

Id have a hard time coming up with last years final 4 off the top of my head. Two years ago? Forget about it. Making the final 4 is a great accomplishment, but yeah no one really remembers.

Phew, glad it's not only me, I was worrying about memory loss which would be a major problem.

 

[madguy30]

Id have a hard time coming up with last years final 4 off the top of my head. Two years ago? Forget about it. Making the final 4 is a great accomplishment, but yeah no one really remembers.

I live in Bucky country and WI fell over themselves into the Final Four one season (2000) and then Bo Ryan didn't go until 2014 and 2015.

I'm sure there were a few idiots who thought more should be happening, but I don't recall hearing much noise about it and they understood that generally WI was going to have good seasons and now with Gard, they miss having an identity to the program.

 

[rosshm16]

We beat Ben McCollum's Iowa Hawkeyes which is just as good as a Final Four.

 

[cydnote]

We beat Ben McCollum's Iowa Hawkeyes which is just as good as a Final Four.

More appropriate:

We beat Kirk Ferentz's Iowa Hawkeyes which is just as good as a Super Bowl

 

[Letterkenny]

We beat Ben McCollum's Iowa Hawkeyes which is just as good as a Final Four.

When James Naismith was inventing the game, he used to call up McCollum for advice.

 

[VeloClone]

How about a quick look at what ISU's resume looks like as we approach the start of conference play...

Iowa State NET 4
12-0, 12-0 NC, 0-0 Conf
NET SOS 75

Q1 3-0
..Q1a 2-0 (A 7 Purdue +23, H 13 Iowa +4)
..Q1b 1-0 (N 29 St John’s +1)
Q2 2-0
..Q2a 1-0 (N 58 Creighton +18)
..Q2b 1-0 (N 88 Syracuse +31)
Q3 1-0 (N 127 Miss St +16)
Q4 6-0 (H 202 Grambling +40, H 259 Long Beach +31, H EIU +25, H Alcorn +64, H 344 Stonehill +39, H 354 FDU +38)

Remaining games:
10 Home, 9 Away
Q1 10 (3H, 7A)
Q2 5 (4H, 1A)
Q3 3 (2H, 1A)
Q4 1 (1H, 0A) OOC

Upcoming schedule:
M 12/29 Q4 292 Houston Christian
F 1/2 Q3 95 WVU
W 1/7 Q1a @ 39 BU
F 1/9 Q2b 72 OSU
M 1/12 Q1a @ 15 KSU
F 1/16 Q2b @ 108 UC
M 1/19 Q2a 33 UCF
F 1/23 Q1b @ 72 OSU
W 1/28 Q2b 60 CU
St 1/31 Q1b @ 53 KSU

 

[VeloClone]

How ISU's resume looks next to the rest of the top 12 in NET:

Michigan NET 1 AP 2
11-0, 9-0 NC, 2-0 Conf
NET SOS 45, RPI SOS 11
KPI 1, SOR 2, WAB 3, BPI 3, POM 1, T Rank 1
Q1 4-0, Q2 2-0, Q3 3-0, Q4 2-0

Arizona NET 2 AP 1
12-0, 12-0 NC, 0-0 Conf
NET SOS 38, RPI SOS 64
KPI 2, SOR 1, WAB 2, BPI 4, POM 2, T Rank 4
Q1 4-0, Q2 2-0, Q3 0-0, Q4 6-0

Duke NET 3 AP 6
11-1, 11-1 NC, 0-0 Conf
NET SOS 21, RPI SOS 28
KPI 8, SOR 8, WAB 5, BPI 1, POM 6, T Rank 8
Q1 4-1, Q2 1-0, Q3 1-0, Q4 5-0

Iowa State NET 4 AP 3
12-0, 12-0 NC, 0-0 Conf
NET SOS 75, RPI SOS 225
KPI 11, SOR 3, WAB 7, BPI 6, POM 3, T Rank 7
Q1 3-0, Q2 2-0, Q3 1-0, Q4 6-0

Gonzaga NET 5 AP 7
12-1, 12-1 NC, 0-0 Conf
NET SOS 32, RPI SOS 88
KPI 10, SOR 6, WAB 4, BPI 2, POM 4, T Rank 6
Q1 3-1, Q2 3-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 4-0

Vanderbilt NET 6 AP 11
12-0, 12-0 NC, 0-0 Conf
NET SOS 73, RPI SOS 106
KPI 3, SOR 7, WAB 6, BPI 13, POM 8, T Rank 5
Q1 3-0, Q2 3-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 4-0

Purdue NET 7 AP 5
11-1, 9-1 NC, 2-0 Conf
NET SOS 37, RPI SOS 48
KPI 9, SOR 9, WAB 9, BPI 8, POM 5, T Rank 9
Q1 3-1, Q2 1-0, Q3 4-0, Q4 3-0

UConn NET 8 AP 4
12-1, 10-1 NC, 2-0 Conf
NET SOS 6, RPI SOS 12
KPI 4, SOR 4, WAB 1, BPI 9, POM 7, T Rank 2
Q1 4-1, Q2 2-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 4-0

BYU NET 9 AP 10
12-1, 12-1 NC, 0-0 Conf
NET SOS 58, RPI SOS 15
KPI 5, SOR 11, WAB 11, BPI 10, POM 11, T Rank 19
Q1 3-1, Q2 2-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 5-0

Illinois NET 10 AP 20
9-3, 8-2 NC, 1-1 Conf
NET SOS 10, RPI SOS 14
KPI 22, SOR 22, WAB 16, BPI 12, POM 9, T Rank 10
Q1 3-3, Q2 1-0, Q3 1-0, Q4 4-0

Nebraska NET 11 AP 13
12-0, 10-0 NC, 2-0 Conf
NET SOS 115, RPI SOS 55
KPI 6, SOR 5, WAB 10, BPI 25, POM 22, T Rank 23
Q1 1-0, Q2 5-0, Q3 1-0, Q4 5-0

Michigan State NET 12 AP 9
11-1, 9-1 NC, 2-0 Conf
NET SOS 24, RPI SOS 21
KPI 7, SOR 10, WAB 8, BPI 20, POM 13, T Rank 12
Q1 4-1, Q2 0-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 5-0

KPI does not like ISU.

 

[twincyties]

I don't think any of this is really crazy at this point. margins between #3 and #6, for example, could be marginal.

 

[CychiatricWard]

Getting Pleta back is going to be such a huge benefit heading into conference play. He doesn’t play a ton of minutes but man you can just tell he is getting better by the day. He has been one of my favorite players to watch during games.

 

[harimad]

View attachment 164221

Kinda premature for this when conference season hasn’t even started yet.

 

[NENick]

7 of 10 remaining Quad 1 games on the road. Challenging.

 

[CySmurf]

Yes, like I said before, we are up there with BYU and Tennessee as the teams with the most Ncaa tournament games without a Final 4.

1944.
That's the last time we made a Final Four. It may not be what the Final Four is now...but it was, indeed, a Final Four nonetheless.
Quit saying we've never made one.

 

[CySmurf]

Id have a hard time coming up with last years final 4 off the top of my head. Two years ago? Forget about it. Making the final 4 is a great accomplishment, but yeah no one really remembers.

Except the school that makes it. Their fans remember.

 

[larry]

7 of 10 remaining Quad 1 games on the road. Challenging.

Arizona, BYU, very hard--Kansas hard, others not as bad. Quad 1 away games include net rankings up to 75(?), so still favored in those games.

 

[ChickenNuggetMan]

Just 50% of the top 6, no biggie

 

[twincyties]

1944.
That's the last time we made a Final Four. It may not be what the Final Four is now...but it was, indeed, a Final Four nonetheless.
Quit saying we've never made one.

Technically true but we won exactly one game to get there