2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

Expect our rotation to be 7 guys in our biggest games this year. Probably 8 in easier Big 12 matchups barring serious injury or foul trouble.
Seems like, as long as everyone's healthy, we'll play 9 in meaningful minutes in every game. Batemon's and Nelson's minutes will be anywhere from 2-8 depending on their play that night, but they will see the floor.
 
Nelson will continue to be that lefty reliever with the quirky delivery who plays an inning most games just for the change of pace to mix things up.
Nelson will have a game or two where he goes off in his own way and probably is the difference in the game. If we are playing someone that we can spread out and he can get 1 on 1 to the basket, he can make a difference. If a team is packing it in the lane, he is going to be a human pinball.
 
Nelson will have a game or two where he goes off in his own way and probably is the difference in the game. If we are playing someone that we can spread out and he can get 1 on 1 to the basket, he can make a difference. If a team is packing it in the lane, he is going to be a human pinball.
Against Purdue he really sparked a run that gave us the lead in the first half. That game was a back and forth slog and he came in and just ignited the team. If Batemon can keep shooting 40% from 3, they're the perfect "8th man" combo.
 
To be honest, Nelson can also make a difference in the game the wrong way. TJ pulled him so fast from that Iowa game it wasn't even funny. Out of sync offensively and a liability on defense.

I think part of the reason we see Heise get so many minutes is because TJ knows exactly what he's going to get from him. He's struggling with his shot, but he doesn't take shots he shouldn't. They're almost always corner threes with good space between him and the defender. The rest are off back cuts or offensive rebounds. He is consistent and reliable on the defense end. You just know what you're getting with him and the shots he makes are a bonus.
 
Against Purdue he really sparked a run that gave us the lead in the first half. That game was a back and forth slog and he came in and just ignited the team. If Batemon can keep shooting 40% from 3, they're the perfect "8th man" combo.
As soon as Nelson went in that game I thought to myself that it was the change of pace the Cyclones needed. He immediately went downhill three possessions in a row with positive results each time. I agree, it changed the game.
 
To be honest, Nelson can also make a difference in the game the wrong way. TJ pulled him so fast from that Iowa game it wasn't even funny. Out of sync offensively and a liability on defense.

I think part of the reason we see Heise get so many minutes is because TJ knows exactly what he's going to get from him. He's struggling with his shot, but he doesn't take shots he shouldn't. They're almost always corner threes with good space between him and the defender. The rest are off back cuts or offensive rebounds. He is consistent and reliable on the defense end. You just know what you're getting with him and the shots he makes are a bonus.
Agreed. Heise knows his role and he plays his role very well. I said in another thread we don't need Heise to be lights out from 3. Just shoot a respectable 33-35% for the year. He does far more things to help the team, many of which don't even show up in the box score

Heise is a very reliable player
 
To be honest, Nelson can also make a difference in the game the wrong way. TJ pulled him so fast from that Iowa game it wasn't even funny. Out of sync offensively and a liability on defense.

I think part of the reason we see Heise get so many minutes is because TJ knows exactly what he's going to get from him. He's struggling with his shot, but he doesn't take shots he shouldn't. They're almost always corner threes with good space between him and the defender. The rest are off back cuts or offensive rebounds. He is consistent and reliable on the defense end. You just know what you're getting with him and the shots he makes are a bonus.
Seems like Nelson will struggle against really physical defenses. Can't just put your head down and get to the basket against a team that defends like Iowa. Especially when we aren't getting anything in transition. Purdue was a much better matchup for him. He'll get opportunities against other teams too I'm guessing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GoodOleDays
TJ rotation almost always tightens as season continues, and I assume we'll see similar again. But I do want to have at least a little more situational use of the 8-9-10 that we didn't seem to have luxury previously .... Nelson & Batemon might be just the ticket in some games (maybe not the same game), maybe it's almost no minutes one game then 10-15 another if their impact is noticeable. Maybe not as much w/ Mulder, but he still can do foul-trouble minutes and that sort of thing.

You have to follow flow of game-by-game, and we'll maximize the core unit, but also can carve a few minutes from some so maybe they aren't as worn during the conference grind.

Others have said had observations with fewer words than I used :)
 
He's good, but hugely overrated when he was considered a favorite for National Player of the Year. Great assist numbers, solid scorer, but averages 3 turnovers per game, and only shoots 42% from the floor. For comparison, Lipsey is shooting 49.5% and 0.6 turnovers per game. Jefferson is at 54.7% and 2.0 turnovers per game. And they both score more than Smith.
He got outplayed by two ISU guards when they played. NPOY is just a popularity contest.
 
Seems like Nelson will struggle against really physical defenses. Can't just put your head down and get to the basket against a team that defends like Iowa. Especially when we aren't getting anything in transition. Purdue was a much better matchup for him. He'll get opportunities against other teams too I'm guessing.
Notice the difference when Nelson is slashing from either wing vs. the top of the key. I don't have the statistics, but to my untrained eye, he is WAY more effective from the wing than he is from the top of the key when driving.
 
To be honest, Nelson can also make a difference in the game the wrong way. TJ pulled him so fast from that Iowa game it wasn't even funny. Out of sync offensively and a liability on defense.

I think part of the reason we see Heise get so many minutes is because TJ knows exactly what he's going to get from him. He's struggling with his shot, but he doesn't take shots he shouldn't. They're almost always corner threes with good space between him and the defender. The rest are off back cuts or offensive rebounds. He is consistent and reliable on the defense end. You just know what you're getting with him and the shots he makes are a bonus.
I get that he started the year colder from three than he finished last year, (only 27.5% from three so far this year) but he has been better (~38%) since Vegas. Him being 0 for 3 against Iowa allowed them to sag more and cut off drives. But at his normal clip, he is effective. He is at ~47 from the field on the year and >70% from the line, so I wouldn't say he is struggling with his shot, just streaky from 3.
 
I get that he started the year colder from three than he finished last year, (only 27.5% from three so far this year) but he has been better (~38%) since Vegas. Him being 0 for 3 against Iowa allowed them to sag more and cut off drives. But at his normal clip, he is effective. He is at ~47 from the field on the year and >70% from the line, so I wouldn't say he is struggling with his shot, just streaky from 3.
He finished last year at 41%, so he should start shooting it better. He went on a tear the last half of Big 12 play last season.
 
I get that he started the year colder from three than he finished last year, (only 27.5% from three so far this year) but he has been better (~38%) since Vegas. Him being 0 for 3 against Iowa allowed them to sag more and cut off drives. But at his normal clip, he is effective. He is at ~47 from the field on the year and >70% from the line, so I wouldn't say he is struggling with his shot, just streaky from 3.
With Nelson, in a certain sense, I try to recall how Cujo and Heise each seemed inconsistent during first couple of months after they came aboard.

I don't know if Nelson has the Curtis potential, but I'm not getting too hung on it, partly because he's like 7th in rotation and we aren't super-dependent (every little bit helps, of course).