2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

Look, I’m not advocating they tempt fate and actually do it!

I’m just saying the metrics suggest they could frost their tips and win some tournament games.

Hell, they could probably wax their eyebrows and get their nails done and still make it to the second weekend the way they played Saturday.
Do college basketball players even have toe nails? As a mostly benchwarming high school basketball player I tended to lose a couple of toe nails every season.
 
Do college basketball players even have toe nails? As a mostly benchwarming high school basketball player I tended to lose a couple of toe nails every season.
See, this is why you’re not fabulous.

There are nails on most people’s fingers too.

By the way, I say this as a 50+ year old man who still loses a couple toe nails a year. I’m not judging you.
 
  • Haha
  • Funny
Reactions: NWICY and jcyclonee
2 of the top 3 and 3 of the top 15.
I haven't watched Vanderbilt. They must be pretty good, too. Let's get a game scheduled.
Yeah, where the hell did Vandy come from? #9 in Kenpom. Their Athletic department is having hell of a year.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: NWICY and aobie
Up to 4th in AP poll with a first place vote


Arizona has Alabama at a neutral site this Friday before a few tricky Big 12 road games.

Duke has Texas Tech at a neutral site on December 20 and a hard game at Louisville on January 6.

Possible to leap those two. Michigan is going to be the hard one if they keep winning.
 
Sadly, I am not fabulous. But my fingernails are neatly clipped even if the polish is slightly chipped.
I have never totally lost a nail before but just did this fall. I was thinking about it this morning and what I will say to the girls on my RAGBRAI team when they go to paint all of the guys' toenails on the bus at the start of the ride. Should they just paint the empty spot on my toe or skip that toe altogether?
 
This works for a Sweet Sixteen for me (only there are 17 teams shown . . . . ).

View attachment 162999
If someone were to flash that picture on the screen for 3 seconds and then ask me how many teams were shown, I would have guessed 8-10. This does not apply to anything, and does not move the conversation forward in any way. I just had to count all 17 to prove to myself how bad I am at estimating.
 
This works for a Sweet Sixteen for me (only there are 17 teams shown . . . . ).

View attachment 162999

Historically speaking 10-12 of those teams will be in the Sweet Sixteen.

1-2 will be "Cinderella" types ranked 25+ in the computer rankings.

Almost never worse than 50. Almost never never never worse than 75.

The remainder will be in the 15-25 range.

National champions tend to almost always be from the top ~5 or so nowadays.
 
I have never totally lost a nail before but just did this fall. I was thinking about it this morning and what I will say to the girls on my RAGBRAI team when they go to paint all of the guys' toenails on the bus at the start of the ride. Should they just paint the empty spot on my toe or skip that toe altogether?
It should grow back by then. No getting out of it for that reason.
 
Not a great game for the analytics. Looks like the worst one all season.

1765519896745.png

Can't argue with the W against a hated rival who played you tough, though!

1765519916232.png

Absolutely baller games from Jefferson and Buchanan.

Jefferson with the 3/6 from three and 7/9 from the line including the clinchers.

Buchanan with a hyper-efficient 2/3 from the field, 2/2 from the line, two assists, three steals, four blocks, and six boards without committing a turnover and only committing one foul.

Jake and Brent on the pod predicted the Cyclone big men would maul the Iowa front court while the matchup between the guards would be more even. They were completely correct.

The Heise line hurts me -- he missed three open threes he usually makes. He drills those and the Cyclones win 75-62 and we're talking about having taken Iowa out behind the woodshed. Everybody else was "fine." Hopefully Nate hits one or two of those open threes afforded once we're into the teeth of the Big 12.

Strongly projected as a #1 seed right now alongside Big 12 new friend Arizona.

1765520122873.png

Something like this setup right now. Tracking very strongly toward St. Louis and hopefully (oh dear we never play well here) Chicago for the regional and Indianapolis for the finals.

Buffalo = #1 Michigan | #10 Louisville

Greenville, SC = #2 Duke | #6 Vanderbilt

Oklahoma City = #11 Houston | #12 Illinois

Philadelphia = #5 Connecticut | #14 Michigan St.

Portland = #8 Gonzaga | #16 Florida

San Diego = #4 Arizona | #13 BYU

St. Louis = #3 Iowa St. | #7 Purdue

Tampa = #9 Alabama | #15 Kansas
 
Pleta not playing hurts the front court. Had the Mukder stretch instead.

Agree pregame with our bigs and their chance to feast. And they did for the most part. I thought JJ would get more boards but he played more away from the basket tonight on both ends, and Buchanan did the excellent dirty work.

Heise’s shot didn’t look fluid and felt like he was trying to aim his shot.

Step into those brother and let it flow.
 
Pleta not playing hurts the front court. Had the Mukder stretch instead.

Agree pregame with our bigs and their chance to feast. And they did for the most part. I thought JJ would get more boards but he played more away from the basket tonight on both ends, and Buchanan did the excellent dirty work.

Heise’s shot didn’t look fluid and felt like he was trying to aim his shot.

Step into those brother and let it flow.
Losing Pleta definitely mattered. Our front court is thin.
 
Buchanan from what I've seen doesn't just deflect shots but seems to do it for a possession instead of trying to swat it into the 2nd row, which looks cool but doesn't really do anything except give the opponent a chance to reset.
Yeah, a guy who blocks 3 shots while keeping them in play is as valuable as a guy who blocks 5 shots into the stands.
 

Latest posts

Help Support Us

Become a patron