2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

I'm in the camp that I don't have a problem with how we defended it. Bad luck happens...

I think in a perfect world, you go all out for a steal on the inbound pass and do whatever it takes to make contact with the ball. If you touch ball without a foul, that's essentially game over. If you get called for a foul, they still need a perfect storm of things to go their way.

My 2 cents...

I'm still in the camp you intentionally miss the second FT and send Jackson and Chat/Watson out there with orders to make them work for the rebound and then put their arms straight up in the air.

Chances are that alone chews up the time needed to get a shot off.
 
Playing with Torvik (it is a great site) - this is really odd and I don't really have an explanation for it. Even adjusted for opponent, our turnover rate has skyrocketed over the last month or 6 weeks. Our 5 worst turnover games have been in the last 9. Prior to that, we were one of the best teams at limiting turnovers in the country, and now we can't stop turning it over all the time. And many are silly, unforced turnovers.

I don't think it's a matter of focus, or "turning it on" - but I'm not sure what to attribute it to - it seems to affect all of our players.

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Playing with Torvik (it is a great site) - this is really odd and I don't really have an explanation for it. Even adjusted for opponent, our turnover rate has skyrocketed over the last month or 6 weeks. Our 5 worst turnover games have been in the last 9. Prior to that, we were one of the best teams at limiting turnovers in the country, and now we can't stop turning it over all the time. And many are silly, unforced turnovers.

I don't think it's a matter of focus, or "turning it on" - but I'm not sure what to attribute it to - it seems to affect all of our players.

View attachment 143327
It's been noticable, IMO.
 
Playing with Torvik (it is a great site) - this is really odd and I don't really have an explanation for it. Even adjusted for opponent, our turnover rate has skyrocketed over the last month or 6 weeks. Our 5 worst turnover games have been in the last 9. Prior to that, we were one of the best teams at limiting turnovers in the country, and now we can't stop turning it over all the time. And many are silly, unforced turnovers.

I don't think it's a matter of focus, or "turning it on" - but I'm not sure what to attribute it to - it seems to affect all of our players.

View attachment 143327
I blame Wilson basketballs . . . . .
 
Well this is information I wasn't aware of. Every player? Ever?

A shot with a 5% chance of going in is still a 5% shot. I can basically guarantee he doesn't make it last night if he shoots the same shot as he did vs. ISU.

Teams post practice videos all the time shooting half court shots.

Hell go to an actual game and see how many of them shoot half courters after warmups before they head to the locker room.
 
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Playing with Torvik (it is a great site) - this is really odd and I don't really have an explanation for it. Even adjusted for opponent, our turnover rate has skyrocketed over the last month or 6 weeks. Our 5 worst turnover games have been in the last 9. Prior to that, we were one of the best teams at limiting turnovers in the country, and now we can't stop turning it over all the time. And many are silly, unforced turnovers.

I don't think it's a matter of focus, or "turning it on" - but I'm not sure what to attribute it to - it seems to affect all of our players.

View attachment 143327
Didn't realize you could see those stats for individual players as well. Definitely a lot of stats to look at there!
 
Playing with Torvik (it is a great site) - this is really odd and I don't really have an explanation for it. Even adjusted for opponent, our turnover rate has skyrocketed over the last month or 6 weeks. Our 5 worst turnover games have been in the last 9. Prior to that, we were one of the best teams at limiting turnovers in the country, and now we can't stop turning it over all the time. And many are silly, unforced turnovers.

I don't think it's a matter of focus, or "turning it on" - but I'm not sure what to attribute it to - it seems to affect all of our players.

View attachment 143327
We can beat anybody if we can stop turning it over. It's soft passes and bouncing the ball off legs type stuff that just drives me crazy.
 
Teams post practice videos all the time shooting half court shots.

Hell go to an actual game and see how many of them shoot half courters after warmups before they head to the locker room.

So that's still every player on every team ever which was the original question?

Does that change it much from being a 5% chance of going in or whatever it is?

Dumb it all you want but people pointing at some other game with a miss that was defended different and going 'see?! That's all it takes!' is some high level CFism.
 
Playing with Torvik (it is a great site) - this is really odd and I don't really have an explanation for it. Even adjusted for opponent, our turnover rate has skyrocketed over the last month or 6 weeks. Our 5 worst turnover games have been in the last 9. Prior to that, we were one of the best teams at limiting turnovers in the country, and now we can't stop turning it over all the time. And many are silly, unforced turnovers.

I don't think it's a matter of focus, or "turning it on" - but I'm not sure what to attribute it to - it seems to affect all of our players.

View attachment 143327

A product of Lipsey’s injury and film/scouting?
 
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We can beat anybody if we can stop turning it over. It's soft passes and bouncing the ball off legs type stuff that just drives me crazy.

There's a lot of possessions when it seems like they're playing like they're down 4 with 10 seconds left instead of playing with a small lead and lots of time left and needing to just take a moment to let things develop if it's not there.
 
Playing with Torvik (it is a great site) - this is really odd and I don't really have an explanation for it. Even adjusted for opponent, our turnover rate has skyrocketed over the last month or 6 weeks. Our 5 worst turnover games have been in the last 9. Prior to that, we were one of the best teams at limiting turnovers in the country, and now we can't stop turning it over all the time. And many are silly, unforced turnovers.

I don't think it's a matter of focus, or "turning it on" - but I'm not sure what to attribute it to - it seems to affect all of our players.

View attachment 143327

"Turnover Rate" is the # of turnovers per 100 offensive possessions.

Think of the scale on the right of the y-axis as a %.

Cincinnati is a perfect example -- they won but had 18 turnovers in 69 possessions.

18 / 69 = 26.09%
 
Thing I’ve noticed the most is how many turnovers lately have been on post entry passes. About 50/50 bad pass or trying to do much, and then our bigs just straight up don’t catch it cleanly sometimes. Jefferson also just seemed to be not quite on the same page yesterday with some of his passes
 
So that's still every player on every team ever which was the original question?

Does that change it much from being a 5% chance of going in or whatever it is?

Dumb it all you want but people pointing at some other game with a miss that was defended different and going 'see?! That's all it takes!' is some high level CFism.

Do you take everything literally or do you just like being a tool?
 
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Thing I’ve noticed the most is how many turnovers lately have been on post entry passes. About 50/50 bad pass or trying to do much, and then our bigs just straight up don’t catch it cleanly sometimes. Jefferson also just seemed to be not quite on the same page yesterday with some of his passes
Just not a great passing team really.