2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[Sigmapolis]

Any way to alter this to show seed likelihood with an ISU win @ Arizona and Houston loss @ KU?

Not that I’m aware of. This guy, I think, runs a bunch of simulations (based on what I don’t know) and comes up with the most outcomes

It wouldn't be hard to do like 10,000 simulations in Excel.

Just "lock" the games that happened. Simulate the ones that haven't happened with a random number generator (the game outcomes being independent) and either the win expectations or the spreads from Torvik or KenPom. I talked about a way to do this with @mred earlier in the thread.

Then rank. Then fix the tiebreakers.

Then go back and make any changes you want to locked games like UH/KU and ISU/UA.

I'm busy playing Civilization V right now, though, after putting the little one down.

 

[NorthCyd]

It wouldn't be hard to do like 10,000 simulations in Excel.

Just "lock" the games that happened. Simulate the ones that haven't happened with a random number generator (the game outcomes being independent) and either the win expectations or the spreads from Torvik or KenPom. I talked about a way to do this with @mred earlier in the thread.

Then rank. Then fix the tiebreakers.

Then go back and make any changes you want to locked games like UH/KU and ISU/UA.

I'm busy playing Civilization V right now, though, after putting the little one down.

 

[Sigmapolis]

If I did it once I would have it forever and could use it in future seasons...

I'm just shot right now. Enough Excel for one day.

Remind me later.

 

[bosco]

If I did it once I would have it forever and could use it in future seasons...

I'm just shot right now. Enough Excel for one day.

Remind me later.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I do it with models.

 

[bawbie]

Ok. Probably doesn't matter too much. Just seems odd because NET factors in strength of opponent already. I guess all we really need to know is higher is better than lower.

It's not NET - it's KenPom's 'NetRtg', I'm pretty sure. "Net" in this sense just means a combination of offensive rating and defensive rating.

The Trapezoid of Excellence is a tremendous analysis. We were in the Trap last year too, but on the opposite side - much slower, so on the left side below where Houston is.

Ryan Hammer is a good follow, I like his approach to analyzing the game. He's BIG on TJ and the Cyclones this year. He was in Ames for the KU game, I think, and did a 1:1 interview with CuJo

 

[Sigmapolis]

 

[CoachHines3]

FWIW: Remaining games via KenPom

 

[Sigmapolis]

Obviously things suck right now but this outcome is realistic --



Which leads to this seeding in the NCAA tournament --



Not great. Not terrible.

These rankings would lead to this location draft --

Cleveland = #7 Florida / #11 Michigan St.
Denver = #10 Texas Tech / #13 Texas A&M
Lexington = #1 Auburn / #3 Tennessee
Milwaukee = #6 Iowa St. / #8 Purdue
Providence = #12 Illinois / #14 Missouri
Raleigh = #2 Duke / #5 Alabama
Seattle = #15 Kentucky / #16 Maryland
Wichita = #4 Houston / #9 Kansas

 

[DoctorZ]

FWIW: Remaining games via KenPom

View attachment 142527

Yeah, this doesn't pass the sniff test. I don't think Kenpom predictions take injuries into account, or for the fact that a team's results in its most recent games are better predictors of how it will perform in the next game than its performance over the entire season is. I'm guessing we go 4-5 in the remainder of our conference games. Sad.

 

[Sigmapolis]

 

[ClonesFTW]

Taking a look at Big 12 performances in conference versus non-conference play per Bart Torvik.

Non-conference efficiencies, offense/defense rank:

1. Houston 14/1
2. ISU 5/40
3. Kansas 35/7
4. TTU 8/47
5. AZ 16/33
6. Cinci 78/12
7. WV, 76/15
8. BYU 27.56
9. Baylor 4/148
10. Utah 51/61
11. ASt 82/37
12. TCU 150/18
13. CO 126/63
14. UCF 102/87
15. KSt 90/123
16. OSU 170/89

Conference play efficiencies, offense/defense rank, change in B12

1. Houston 2/2 No change
2. Kansas 41/4 +1
3. TTU 10/33 +1
4. AZ 15/21 +1
5. ISU 68/6 -3
6. BYU 11/63 +2
7. Baylor 32/39 +2
8. KSt 40/42 +7
9. UCF 17/100 +6
10. WV 95/19 -3
11. ASt 128/34 No change
12. TCU 194/37 No change
13. Cinci 277/24 -7
14. Utah 171/106 -4
15. OSU 181/114 +1
16. CO 193/137 -3

 

[CoachHines3]

still 6th best odds to reach FF

 

[dahliaclone]

Obviously things suck right now but this outcome is realistic --

View attachment 142529

Which leads to this seeding in the NCAA tournament --

View attachment 142530

Not great. Not terrible.

These rankings would lead to this location draft --

Cleveland = #7 Florida / #11 Michigan St.
Denver = #10 Texas Tech / #13 Texas A&M
Lexington = #1 Auburn / #3 Tennessee
Milwaukee = #6 Iowa St. / #8 Purdue
Providence = #12 Illinois / #14 Missouri
Raleigh = #2 Duke / #5 Alabama
Seattle = #15 Kentucky / #16 Maryland
Wichita = #4 Houston / #9 Kansas

Sorry but I do think it’s great.

 

[madguy30]

Obviously things suck right now but this outcome is realistic --

View attachment 142529

Which leads to this seeding in the NCAA tournament --

View attachment 142530

Not great. Not terrible.

These rankings would lead to this location draft --

Cleveland = #7 Florida / #11 Michigan St.
Denver = #10 Texas Tech / #13 Texas A&M
Lexington = #1 Auburn / #3 Tennessee
Milwaukee = #6 Iowa St. / #8 Purdue
Providence = #12 Illinois / #14 Missouri
Raleigh = #2 Duke / #5 Alabama
Seattle = #15 Kentucky / #16 Maryland
Wichita = #4 Houston / #9 Kansas

I refuse to live in a world where a 2 seed is 'not great'.

 

[dahliaclone]

I refuse to live in a world where a 2 seed is 'not great'.

Right? How in the world are we in a spot where some think a 2 isn’t great. That means we are considered a top 8 team out of 350 or so teams.

 

[madguy30]

Right? How in the world are we in a spot where some think a 2 isn’t great. That means we are considered a top 8 team out of 350 or so teams.

Yeah I mean I get that the AP ranking was high and they were projected as a 1 here and there but what happens the first half of the season just doesn't define things.

I also have it ingrained from my 80s/90s childhood that any time you make the tourney is still really good and don't really care what the 'bar' is.

 

[Cloned4Life]

Right? How in the world are we in a spot where some think a 2 isn’t great. That means we are considered a top 8 team out of 350 or so teams.

Fine. It’s great.

The 1 seed we were hoping for would be super great

 

[qwerty]

No really sure why.

But it still works out.

View attachment 142218

Well, just drop the #9 back to first round and add #16. Same schedule with one more game. I guess they figured if you finish upper half (1-9) in conference you deserve a first round bye?

 

[qwerty]

Any way to alter this to show seed likelihood with an ISU win @ Arizona and Houston loss @ KU?

change those two outcomes and let everything else go by seed and all you do is swap KU and AZ positions (KU from 5 to 3, AZ from 3 to 5).