2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[bosco]

Here is a historical perspective from a reddit post in regards to how teams with elite metrics do in The Tournament. I copy pasted the part that references Iowa State and included the link to the whole post.

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Duke isn't the only team that is doing well this season. Iowa State is the other team that is top 10 in AdjOE (10) and AdjDE (6) as I write this. Here's the pre-tournament group of all top 10 teams in both AdjOE and AdjDE from 2001 through 2024 (excluding Kansas in 2020 due to the lack of an NCAA Tournament that year):

|Year|Team|AdjOE|AdjDE|NCAAT|
|--:|:--|--:|--:|:--|
|2001|Duke|2|2|National Champions|
|2001|Michigan State|3|8|Final Four|
|2001|Arizona|10|3|National Runner-Up|
|2002|Duke|1|2|Sweet 16|
|2002|Cincinnati|7|1|Round of 32|
|2002|Kansas|5|7|Final Four|
|2003|Kentucky|8|4|Elite 8|
|2004|Duke|3|3|Final Four|
|2005|Illinois|2|5|National Runner-Up|
|2005|North Carolina|3|6|National Champions|
|2005|Duke|10|3|Sweet 16|
|2006|UConn|8|9|Elite 8|
|2007|North Carolina|3|2|Elite 8|
|2007|Ohio State|6|10|National Runner-Up|
|2008|Kansas|1|3|National Champions|
|2008|UCLA|6|4|Final Four|
|2008|Duke|8|7|Round of 32|
|2010|Kansas|2|4|Round of 32|
|2010|Duke|4|5|National Champions|
|2011|Duke|6|5|Sweet 16|
|2012|Kentucky|2|6|National Champions|
|2012|Ohio State|7|3|Final Four|
|2013|Florida|6|4|Elite 8|
|2014|Louisville|7|6|Sweet 16|
|2015|Kentucky|6|1|Final Four|
|2016|Kansas|7|4|Elite 8|
|2016|Virginia|8|6|Elite 8|
|2017|Gonzaga|10|2|National Runner-Up|
|2018|Duke|3|7|Elite 8|
|2018|Michigan State|9|9|Round of 32|
|2019|Virginia|2|5|National Champions|
|2019|Duke|6|6|Elite 8|
|2019|Michigan State|4|8|Final Four|
|2019|North Carolina|7|10|Sweet 16|
|2021|Gonzaga|1|10|National Runner-Up|
|2021|Illinois|7|5|Round of 32|
|2021|Michigan|6|7|Elite 8|
|2022|Gonzaga|1|7|Sweet 16|
|2024|Auburn|10|4|Round of 64|

From this group...
*100% Reached the Round of 64
*97.4% Reached the Round of 32
*84.6% Reached the Sweet 16
*69.2% Reached the Elite 8
*46.2% Reached the Final 4
*28.2% Reached the National Title Game
*15.4% Won the National Championship

Those are also really good outcomes, if slightly worse than the first group. ISU fans, get hyped for the Cyclones (if they stay in the top 10 of both AdjOE and AdjDE)!

Thanks for reading this if you have come this far. GTHC and have a great weekend!

 

[cycloneworld]

WAB is wins above bubble right?

I'm flummoxed by Houston. All of the highest WAB ratings are against Houston (both already played and future). It seems to me that they're being rewarded by beating the living **** out of teams they're supposed to beat. Still no great wins. We'll find out Saturday against KU if they're legit.

Houston is 2023-2024 Iowa State. Demolish okay and bad teams so bad the metrics love you. Who is Houston’s best win? West Virginia? At UCF on a last second shot? There is nothing else.

We’ll know a lot more about Houston in the few weeks - at KU, at WV, Tech, at Arizona before we go down there.

 

[interrobang]

Updated Big12 POY standings. Jefferson makes an appearance!

 

[NorthCyd]

Updated Big12 POY standings. Jefferson makes an appearance!

View attachment 141875

CuJo making a serious run at it. If he keeps up this scoring pace I think he gets it. Small still averages a little more per game but he also averages 7 minutes more a game.

 

[interrobang]

CuJo making a serious run at it. If he keeps up this scoring pace I think he gets it. Small still averages a little more per game but he also averages 7 minutes more a game.

Yeah he is 8th in national POY, but the gap isn't that large to Hunter. And pretty much even with Small.

 

[NiceMarmot]

Do you think people will finally stop coming to this thread saying, "I just don't get it with Houston!"

They've won 18 straight regular season conference games. They should just be flat-out trusted as a program as long as Sampson is there. Game down there on Feb 22 should be a blast.

 

[madguy30]

Do you think people will finally stop coming to this thread saying, "I just don't get it with Houston!"

They've won 18 straight regular season conference games. They should just be flat-out trusted as a program as long as Sampson is there. Game down there on Feb 22 should be a blast.

I don't get it with Houston.

Sorry. Couldn't help it.

 

[CychiatricWard]

Yeah he is 8th in national POY, but the gap isn't that large to Hunter. And pretty much even with Small.

View attachment 141876

Hunter Dickinson shouldn’t be within 20 of this list. He isn’t good. I don’t get the infatuation the computers and the media has with him.

 

[FerShizzle]

I don't get it with Houston.

Sorry. Couldn't help it.

I don’t get why they are allowed to push off and hold when rebounding.

 

[VeloClone]

Anybody know the last time ISU had two different players go back to back 30 point games (if ever)?

 

[rosshm16]

Hunter being so high on these lists is proof that computers don’t watch games.

 

[bawbie]

This year's team is deeper. The front court is stacked with depth and they have a lot of good guards. No Sheads but good quality depth

I don't think they are deeper - it's basically the exact same team as last year with Uzon replacing Shead and Dunn, their first guy off the bench last year, transferred to Pitt. Archeneaux, the first guy off the bench this year, didn't play a ton last year because of injury.

They only play 8 guys - and Shead->Uzon isn't an improvement. So I don't think they are better than last year, they are going to get exposed at some point and lose a couple games.

 

[bawbie]

Hunter Dickinson shouldn’t be within 20 of this list. He isn’t good. I don’t get the infatuation the computers and the media has with him.

He's so ******* soft

 

[Cloned4Life]

I don't think they are deeper - it's basically the exact same team as last year with Uzon replacing Shead and Dunn, their first guy off the bench last year, transferred to Pitt. Archeneaux, the first guy off the bench this year, didn't play a ton last year because of injury.

They only play 8 guys - and Shead->Uzon isn't an improvement. So I don't think they are better than last year, they are going to get exposed at some point and lose a couple games.

They are deeper. They've got 10 guys playing 11+ mpg. Losing Shead was huge obviously but they have accounted for that, and their bigs have made huge improvements. They frontcourt is more skilled, and more physical/athletic than they were last year. Sharp is a much improved player overall as well. And the injuries matter; last year they fought injuries all year, including losing several key players to season ending injuries at various points in the year. No doubt in my mind this is a better Houston squad, and the metrics prove that out also.

What are they going to get "exposed" with?

 

[nrg4isu]

They are deeper. They've got 10 guys playing 11+ mpg. Losing Shead was huge obviously but they have accounted for that, and their bigs have made huge improvements. They frontcourt is more skilled, and more physical/athletic than they were last year. Sharp is a much improved player overall as well. And the injuries matter; last year they fought injuries all year, including losing several key players to season ending injuries at various points in the year. No doubt in my mind this is a better Houston squad, and the metrics prove that out also.

What are they going to get "exposed" with?

They proved it to me last night. Sharp, Uzon and Tugler all looked like top players. And Roberts... my goodness.

 

[CloniesForLife]

I don't think they are deeper - it's basically the exact same team as last year with Uzon replacing Shead and Dunn, their first guy off the bench last year, transferred to Pitt. Archeneaux, the first guy off the bench this year, didn't play a ton last year because of injury.

They only play 8 guys - and Shead->Uzon isn't an improvement. So I don't think they are better than last year, they are going to get exposed at some point and lose a couple games.

Their front court is improved this year and Roberts has really taken a step forward. Sharp is improved and more efficient in all areas. Wilson is more competent on offense and Arceneaux is a solid bench piece. Maybe it's just because they were so injured last year but felt like once they went past their starting 5 there was nothing. Feels like everyone that returned took a step forward (except Cryer who is still the same player). Uzon's numbers are also better this year. I do agree Shead is better though.

 

[madguy30]

They are deeper. They've got 10 guys playing 11+ mpg. Losing Shead was huge obviously but they have accounted for that, and their bigs have made huge improvements. They frontcourt is more skilled, and more physical/athletic than they were last year. Sharp is a much improved player overall as well. And the injuries matter; last year they fought injuries all year, including losing several key players to season ending injuries at various points in the year. No doubt in my mind this is a better Houston squad, and the metrics prove that out also.

What are they going to get "exposed" with?

I don't know how they'll get exposed but lots of teams won't throw the ball away up 3 like KU did.

They're really good but people are acting like they blew KU out or something when they're a handful of plays from having two conference losses.

 

[nrg4isu]

I don't know how they'll get exposed but lots of teams won't throw the ball away up 3 like KU did.

They're really good but people are acting like they blew KU out or something when they're a handful of plays from having two conference losses.

So they're a lot like us? Really really good, but not completely unbeatable especially if you catch them on an off night.

Until last night, I was in the camp that said Houston needed to show something against a good team. They did that.

It's a 3 team race for the B12 and Houston is legit top 10 at least.

 

[madguy30]

So they're a lot like us? Really really good, but not completely unbeatable especially if you catch them on an off night.

Until last night, I was in the camp that said Houston needed to show something against a good team. They did that.

It's a 3 team race for the B12 and Houston is legit top 10 at least.

Yeah, I could say they're similar in those ways to ISU. Seem to be more athletic and deep.

 

[cyclonestunners]

I don't know how they'll get exposed but lots of teams won't throw the ball away up 3 like KU did.

They're really good but people are acting like they blew KU out or something when they're a handful of plays from having two conference losses.

I think houston beats us soundly. Good interior d, good 3 point shooters.