Here is a historical perspective from a reddit post in regards to how teams with elite metrics do in The Tournament. I copy pasted the part that references Iowa State and included the link to the whole post.
www.reddit.com
Duke isn't the only team that is doing well this season. Iowa State is the other team that is top 10 in AdjOE (10) and AdjDE (6) as I write this. Here's the pre-tournament group of all top 10 teams in both AdjOE and AdjDE from 2001 through 2024 (excluding Kansas in 2020 due to the lack of an NCAA Tournament that year):
|Year|Team|AdjOE|AdjDE|NCAAT|
|--:|:--|--:|--:|:--|
|2001|Duke|2|2|National Champions|
|2001|Michigan State|3|8|Final Four|
|2001|Arizona|10|3|National Runner-Up|
|2002|Duke|1|2|Sweet 16|
|2002|Cincinnati|7|1|Round of 32|
|2002|Kansas|5|7|Final Four|
|2003|Kentucky|8|4|Elite 8|
|2004|Duke|3|3|Final Four|
|2005|Illinois|2|5|National Runner-Up|
|2005|North Carolina|3|6|National Champions|
|2005|Duke|10|3|Sweet 16|
|2006|UConn|8|9|Elite 8|
|2007|North Carolina|3|2|Elite 8|
|2007|Ohio State|6|10|National Runner-Up|
|2008|Kansas|1|3|National Champions|
|2008|UCLA|6|4|Final Four|
|2008|Duke|8|7|Round of 32|
|2010|Kansas|2|4|Round of 32|
|2010|Duke|4|5|National Champions|
|2011|Duke|6|5|Sweet 16|
|2012|Kentucky|2|6|National Champions|
|2012|Ohio State|7|3|Final Four|
|2013|Florida|6|4|Elite 8|
|2014|Louisville|7|6|Sweet 16|
|2015|Kentucky|6|1|Final Four|
|2016|Kansas|7|4|Elite 8|
|2016|Virginia|8|6|Elite 8|
|2017|Gonzaga|10|2|National Runner-Up|
|2018|Duke|3|7|Elite 8|
|2018|Michigan State|9|9|Round of 32|
|2019|Virginia|2|5|National Champions|
|2019|Duke|6|6|Elite 8|
|2019|Michigan State|4|8|Final Four|
|2019|North Carolina|7|10|Sweet 16|
|2021|Gonzaga|1|10|National Runner-Up|
|2021|Illinois|7|5|Round of 32|
|2021|Michigan|6|7|Elite 8|
|2022|Gonzaga|1|7|Sweet 16|
|2024|Auburn|10|4|Round of 64|
From this group...
*100% Reached the Round of 64
*97.4% Reached the Round of 32
*84.6% Reached the Sweet 16
*69.2% Reached the Elite 8
*46.2% Reached the Final 4
*28.2% Reached the National Title Game
*15.4% Won the National Championship
Those are also really good outcomes, if slightly worse than the first group. ISU fans, get hyped for the Cyclones (if they stay in the top 10 of both AdjOE and AdjDE)!
Thanks for reading this if you have come this far. GTHC and have a great weekend!
Reddit - The heart of the internet

Duke isn't the only team that is doing well this season. Iowa State is the other team that is top 10 in AdjOE (10) and AdjDE (6) as I write this. Here's the pre-tournament group of all top 10 teams in both AdjOE and AdjDE from 2001 through 2024 (excluding Kansas in 2020 due to the lack of an NCAA Tournament that year):
|Year|Team|AdjOE|AdjDE|NCAAT|
|--:|:--|--:|--:|:--|
|2001|Duke|2|2|National Champions|
|2001|Michigan State|3|8|Final Four|
|2001|Arizona|10|3|National Runner-Up|
|2002|Duke|1|2|Sweet 16|
|2002|Cincinnati|7|1|Round of 32|
|2002|Kansas|5|7|Final Four|
|2003|Kentucky|8|4|Elite 8|
|2004|Duke|3|3|Final Four|
|2005|Illinois|2|5|National Runner-Up|
|2005|North Carolina|3|6|National Champions|
|2005|Duke|10|3|Sweet 16|
|2006|UConn|8|9|Elite 8|
|2007|North Carolina|3|2|Elite 8|
|2007|Ohio State|6|10|National Runner-Up|
|2008|Kansas|1|3|National Champions|
|2008|UCLA|6|4|Final Four|
|2008|Duke|8|7|Round of 32|
|2010|Kansas|2|4|Round of 32|
|2010|Duke|4|5|National Champions|
|2011|Duke|6|5|Sweet 16|
|2012|Kentucky|2|6|National Champions|
|2012|Ohio State|7|3|Final Four|
|2013|Florida|6|4|Elite 8|
|2014|Louisville|7|6|Sweet 16|
|2015|Kentucky|6|1|Final Four|
|2016|Kansas|7|4|Elite 8|
|2016|Virginia|8|6|Elite 8|
|2017|Gonzaga|10|2|National Runner-Up|
|2018|Duke|3|7|Elite 8|
|2018|Michigan State|9|9|Round of 32|
|2019|Virginia|2|5|National Champions|
|2019|Duke|6|6|Elite 8|
|2019|Michigan State|4|8|Final Four|
|2019|North Carolina|7|10|Sweet 16|
|2021|Gonzaga|1|10|National Runner-Up|
|2021|Illinois|7|5|Round of 32|
|2021|Michigan|6|7|Elite 8|
|2022|Gonzaga|1|7|Sweet 16|
|2024|Auburn|10|4|Round of 64|
From this group...
*100% Reached the Round of 64
*97.4% Reached the Round of 32
*84.6% Reached the Sweet 16
*69.2% Reached the Elite 8
*46.2% Reached the Final 4
*28.2% Reached the National Title Game
*15.4% Won the National Championship
Those are also really good outcomes, if slightly worse than the first group. ISU fans, get hyped for the Cyclones (if they stay in the top 10 of both AdjOE and AdjDE)!
Thanks for reading this if you have come this far. GTHC and have a great weekend!