2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[fcclone]

I don't think ASU or UCF have an NBA great alumni they will be celebrating during our game, so we should be safer there.

You don’t think ASU will trot out their football team?

 

[twincyties]

We have five remaining if the Torvik projections hold.

@ ASU
@ AZ
@ KU
@ UH
AZ

Four of them (minus @ ASU) are projected as Q-1A games.

The Big 12 still has some really good teams but...

We don't consistently play them home/home every season now (see Houston this year and Kansas last year) and the bottom of the conference is much weaker. The schedule isn't like how it was back when Georges and Buddy Hield were fighting it out and we knew they'd always play at least twice and team #9 in the conference wasn't all that different from team #3. We just don't have the same schedule quality automatically generated for us now that we have 16 teams and so many of them (e.g., Colorado) are not very good.

Losing to Auburn and getting Dayton and Colorado instead of North Carolina and Memphis in the second and third games on Maui hurts. I'm hoping next year the Las Vegas tournament would generate a more impressive set of game (Auburn was great sure but the other two are meh with Dayton and a dud with Colorado) and TJ and the staff look aggressively into finding some high-level non-con games. The Big East challenge is gone, too, so I would hope you at least look to replace it with something like a home/home series with somebody like Creighton or maybe try to find a neutral-site game somewhere (e.g., Duke in Chicago back in the day).

So we have 7 currently (5-2). So is this projecting that 2 of those won’t hold?

 

[Clone95]

So we have 7 currently (5-2). So is this projecting that 2 of those won’t hold?

Probably projecting those dorks 2 hours east of us won’t stay top 75 Net

 

[Sigmapolis]

So we have 7 currently (5-2). So is this projecting that 2 of those won’t hold?

A few of the games "wiggle" before the end of the season in the projections.

Q1
---
(neutral) Auburn
(home) Marquette
(away) Iowa
(road) Texas Tech
(home) Kansas
(road) West Virginia
(away) Arizona
(away) Kansas
(away) Houston
(home) Arizona

Q2
---
(neutral) Dayton
(away) Colorado
(home) Baylor
(away) Arizona St.
(away) TCU
(home) Cincinnati
(home) BYU

Everything else is projected Q3 or Q4.

 

[qwerty]

You don’t think ASU will trot out their football team?

During some game, but why would they choose the Iowa State game unless it is to rub it in since the CCG was against us.

 

[Sigmapolis]

We played 17 regular season Q-1 games in 2016 (Georges' senior year).

We're projected to play only 10 this season.

The softer underbelly of the conference is making itself felt.

 

[ClubCy]

No offense but @Sigmapolis how much time do you have on your hands?

 

[Sigmapolis]

No offense but @Sigmapolis how much time do you have on your hands?

I was watching K-State lose again (lol) why not post about my Cyclones.

 

[twincyties]

We played 17 regular season Q-1 games in 2016 (Georges' senior year).

We're projected to play only 10 this season.

The softer underbelly of the conference is making itself felt.

The expansion has definitely diluted the talent and the unbalanced schedule hurts.

We also got screwed in Maui not having opportunities to play UConn, UNC, or Michigan State

 

[Sigmapolis]

The expansion has definitely diluted the talent and the unbalanced schedule hurts.

We also got screwed in Maui not having opportunities to play UConn, UNC, or Michigan State

They had their chance to finish Auburn off. They didn't do it.

 

[awd4cy]

You don’t think ASU will trot out their football team?

The good thing is nobody goes to ASU basketball games.

 

[alarson]

During some game, but why would the choose the Iowa State game unless it is to rub it in since the CCG was against us.

Probably bring them out for the Arizona game the next weekend

 

[Urbandale2013]

I feel like the computers have been broken this year. Don’t get me wrong I think they are generally accurate but there just seems to be something off with them this year.

The new Big 12 is definitely diluted some but it seems to be punishing the Big 12 more than it should. Maybe some of that is some really good Big 12 teams having slow starts (Arizona and Houston). At the same time they still love Houston.

I just don’t buy us being a 3 even if we lose all 3 big road games.

 

[cyclonestunners]

Iowa St. would be this if it wins everything from here on out save those tough road games:

View attachment 141649

Meanwhile Torvik has this projection for Alabama:

View attachment 141650

The RPI is *slobbering* on the SEC right now. They're going to have so many Q1 games compared to us (and by extension wins) that it isn't even funny. We're getting a taste of what it was like for the rest of college basketball back when the Big 12 was top to bottom with ten complete bangers.

Those SEC schools definitely can jump an Iowa St. without any super sexy wins.



The top of the distribution is elastic year-to-year. Sometimes it is "weak" and kind of a mess so a team with what looks like a mediocre CV by the likely standards of this season can land a #1.

This year appears to require fewer blemishes (especially when 2/4 #1 spots are almost locked up by Auburn and Duke at this point assuming nothing disastrous happens for either).

The difference this year is oc course the espn narrative. This year it's "how tough this conference is!" Vs last year it was "the conference gamed the system!" When the b12 had those stats.

 

[NoCreativity]

It's inevitable we are getting a 2 seed again even though by every measure and the eye test we are a much better overall team than last year.

 

[awd4cy]

It's inevitable we are getting a 2 seed again even though by every measure and the eye test we are a much better overall team than last year.

I don’t think it’s inevitable at all. Right now we are on track for a 1 seed.

 

[NoCreativity]

I don’t think it’s inevitable at all. Right now we are on track for a 1 seed.

It all depends on what happens with Houston. Duke and Auburn are locks. After that it will likely be the Big 12 winner and another SEC team becuase of the perceived strength.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Probably projecting those dorks 2 hours east of us won’t stay top 75 Net

Hopefully Fran will have one of those late runs that screw up things for others while gaining themselves nothing.

 

[VeloClone]

Interesting to note what 'big' conference games (opponent with 3 wins or more) the top Big 12 contenders have played thus far:

Home
UH: (4 of 4) 4-3 WVU, 3-4 BYU, 3-4 UU, 3-4 TCU
UA: (3 of 3) 4-3 BU, 3-4 UCF, 3-4 TCU
ISU: (4 of 4) 5-2 KU, 4-3 BU, 3-4 UCF, 3-4 UU
KU: (1 or 3) 4-3 WVU
TTU: (3 of 3) 6-1 UA, 6-1 ISU, 3-4 UCF
Away
UH: (1 of 3) 3-4 UCF
UA: (2 of 4) 5-2 TTU, 4-3 WVU
ISU: (2 of 3) 5-2 TTU, 4-3 WVU
KU: (3 of 4) 6-1 ISU, 3-4 UCF, 3-4 TCU
TTU: (2 of 4) 3-4 BYU, 3-4 UU

Losses in red.
Of the current 5 contenders ISU has played the most tough games (6) against the top 2/3 of the conference. If you just count opponents with winning records ISU has the most games there as well with 4.

 

[NorthCyd]

I feel like the computers have been broken this year. Don’t get me wrong I think they are generally accurate but there just seems to be something off with them this year.

The new Big 12 is definitely diluted some but it seems to be punishing the Big 12 more than it should. Maybe some of that is some really good Big 12 teams having slow starts (Arizona and Houston). At the same time they still love Houston.

I just don’t buy us being a 3 even if we lose all 3 big road games.

The perception and the analytics being down on the Big XII this year are primarily due to Baylor and Arizona underperforming in the non-con this year. But while the Big XII is down a little, its really just the SEC beating everybody in the non-con this year that makes the Big XII look bad in comparison.