2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[ebState]

The league isn't the round robin gauntlet I fell in love with, but I think the reports of the B12 being down have been greatly exaggerated.

ISU is up to #4 in KP

B12 has 2 of the top 4 and 5 of the top 15 teams as of now (TTech very well could drop out depending on how their game in Provo ends up)

 

[twincyties]

Houston as an 11 is absolute insanity.

So is listening to Lunardi at any time of the year (not just early January).

 

[NorthCyd]

The league isn't the round robin gauntlet I fell in love with, but I think the reports of the B12 being down have been greatly exaggerated.

ISU is up to #4 in KP

B12 has 2 of the top 4 and 5 of the top 15 teams as of now (TTech very well could drop out depending on how their game in Provo ends up)

Big XII isn't really down, the SEC is just really good in an unprecedented way. The question is how much of this is luck and how much the result of NIL.

 

[NATEizKING]

O 6; D 8

 

[Cyclonsin]

Seems like it's time for the annual reminder that Lunardi is one of the worst bracketologists out there, and his projections aren't even worth discussing, especially since he's employed by ESPN.

So maybe don't too worked up about what he thinks.

 

[CychiatricWard]

Seems like it's time for the annual reminder that Lunardi is one of the worst bracketologists out there, and his projections aren't even worth discussing, especially since he's employed by ESPN.

So maybe don't too worked up about what he thinks.

Would ya look at that? ESPN employing someone who isn’t good at their job. They suck, and so do their people, a few of them withstanding. Don’t pay attention to him.

 

[Cyclonsin]

Would ya look at that? ESPN employing someone who isn’t good at their job. They suck, and so do their people, a few of them withstanding. Don’t pay attention to him.

In ESPN's defense, they're incredible at establishing someone as "The Guy" for their relatively niche field and then coasting on that.

Mel Kiper is horrible at draft projections these days, but he's done more than anyone to help turn the NFL draft into an event.

Matthew Berry was one of the first widely published fantasy football experts, but is often one of the least accurate now.

And the aforementioned Lunardi. Nobody is better at awarding themselves laurels and then resting on them than the world wide leader.

 

[ebState]

Houston as an 11 is absolute insanity.

So is listening to Lunardi at any time of the year (not just early January).

Lunardi's bonefides aside, Houston is kind of an interesting point. In terms of resume metrics they don't have much of anything yet. They are 32nd in wins against bubble and 37th based on quads on torvik and are 0-3 in Q1.

But the predictives love them and they are hanging around pretty high in the AP poll. They'll notch plenty of resume padding wins in conference play in the end, but where they end up being seeded might tell us something about how much the committee values resume vs predictives this year.

 

[PizzaTheHutt]

Big XII isn't really down, the SEC is just really good in an unprecedented way. The question is how much of this is luck and how much the result of NIL.

I think it’s somewhere in between, SEC is for sure the best conference this year. There’s no doubt. I think they have the most teams capable of making a final four. However, some of these SEC teams will start returning to the mean.

 

[LivntheCyLife]

There losses were to good teams, must be A hack like Lunardi or Palm that has them as an 11.

But they have no quad 1 wins. It's all a silly argument when it's early January.

 

[LivntheCyLife]

I could understand that if ISU and UH were on same seed line, but it's a 1 and a 4, so he got lazy w/ the aq, in a snapshot bracketology. Sure it could happen in actuality (4 seed winning the conference tournament) but projection isn't designed that way.

He also has Michigan State as Big Ten aq and 5 seed, but both Illinois and Oregon as a 3 seed.

I think the intern updating the algorithm pressed the wrong buttons or something.

It's probably just best conference record. UH had a Monday game and was 3-0 while ISU didn't play until Tues.

 

[CoachHines3]

FYI updated KenPom #s

 

[cyclones500]

In ESPN's defense, they're incredible at establishing someone as "The Guy" for their relatively niche field and then coasting on that.

Mel Kiper is horrible at draft projections these days, but he's done more than anyone to help turn the NFL draft into an event.

Matthew Berry was one of the first widely published fantasy football experts, but is often one of the least accurate now.

And the aforementioned Lunardi. Nobody is better at awarding themselves laurels and then resting on them than the world wide leader.

Lunardi/Kiper are examples of guys getting in on ground floor. There was definite niche interest among fans for those specific topics & analysis, there wasn't a lot of access to in-depth and consistent assessment, especially when Internet was in its infancy.

They still have general reliability, but, in the case of Lunardi, it seems aimed toward people who follow CBB somewhat closely, but have almost no clue about the tournament selection process. Dozens of those people exist, I'm sure.

(I can't speak to Berry & Fantasy, I imagine it's a similar thing).

 

[CascadeClone]

Lunardi has UH as 4, Palm as 7 (Matrix shows CBS w/ Houston at 10, but that was prior to recent update).

Not that I'm vouching for their general accuracy, but other bracketeers have it all over the map.

Man, everyone and their sister does bracketology now. And I'm not any better than anyone else. How can I get people to pay attention to me and say my name online more often?

I know! I will take a couple teams and give them stupid seeds! That will get everyone worked up and get my name out there. I can even rotate them around to get more fanbases agitated! And if someone does tank, I can say I saw it coming! I'm an internet marketing genius!

 

[CascadeClone]

Big XII isn't really down, the SEC is just really good in an unprecedented way. The question is how much of this is luck and how much the result of NIL.

I would say its down relative to last year, but that was historically good last year.

The SEC should have SOME good basketball. Kentucky is a blue blood. Florida and Tennessee have always been occasionally frisky. The rest, not so much, but right now they have some decent coaches like Pearl(!!) and good coaches make for good programs. Will they hang on to them is a question. They certainly have the money to pay to keep them, and maybe the ACC doesn't have the money to poach them anymore.

 

[Big_Sill]

How does Tennessee lose 73-43 and stay at number 3 in the NET rankings? I'd love to see the ACTUAL NET formula and factor weighting.

 

[VeloClone]

How does Tennessee lose 73-43 and stay at number 3 in the NET rankings? I'd love to see the ACTUAL NET formula and factor weighting.

It was their first loss so it only drags them down to everyone else. Looking at their resume I think you can make some sort of case based on their Q1a wins but there isn't a lot after that. The bulk of their games have been Q3 and 4.

NET SOS 61, OOC SOS 123
1a 3-1
1b
2a 1-0
2b
3 5-0
4 5-0

Compare that to ISU's:
NET SOS 55, OOC SOS 67
1a 1-1
1b 2-0
2a 2-0
2b 1-0
3 1-0
4 6-0

What confuses me is that Florida leapfrogged ISU on the back of that win last night.

NET SOS 82, OOC SOS 232
1a 1-1
1b 2-0
2a 1-0
2b 1-0
3 3-0
4 6-0

And their cupcakes are just as creamy as ISU's...

 

[madguy30]

Seems like it's time for the annual reminder that Lunardi is one of the worst bracketologists out there, and his projections aren't even worth discussing, especially since he's employed by ESPN.

So maybe don't too worked up about what he thinks.

Responding seriously to Lunardi is like responding seriously to the Hot Take guys.

At some point it's basically just passive trolling.

 

[Cyclonepride]

How does Tennessee lose 73-43 and stay at number 3 in the NET rankings? I'd love to see the ACTUAL NET formula and factor weighting.

I think it's based on well established and sound statistic models. Plus an x factor for money based shenanigans.

 

[Big_Sill]

It was their first loss so it only drags them down to everyone else. Looking at their resume I think you can make some sort of case based on their Q1a wins but there isn't a lot after that. The bulk of their games have been Q3 and 4.

NET SOS 61, OOC SOS 123
1a 3-1
1b
2a 1-0
2b
3 5-0
4 5-0

Compare that to ISU's:
NET SOS 55, OOC SOS 67
1a 1-1
1b 2-0
2a 2-0
2b 1-0
3 1-0
4 6-0

What confuses me is that Florida leapfrogged ISU on the back of that win last night.

NET SOS 82, OOC SOS 232
1a 1-1
1b 2-0
2a 1-0
2b 1-0
3 3-0
4 6-0

And their cupcakes are just as creamy as ISU's...

I just figured their Offensive efficiency rating would have been hammered and had some negative impact. Quadrant wins and losses has seemed like lesser of a component over the years, and O and D rating more important. Once again, can't see the actual formula.