2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[cyfan92]

You said it yourself, there is a lot season left to play. The league champ could have 4 or 5 conference losses. That might not be good enough for a 1 seed. There are just too many variables to predict it that closely right now.

Just win the most important game - the next game.

mred's Big 12 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker

Big 12 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

bball.notnothing.net

Yep, I have this favorited, but have not visited it yet... Probably start digging into it until after the @KU game

 

[Sigmapolis]

mred's Big 12 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker

Big 12 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

bball.notnothing.net

Yep, I have this favorited, but have not visited it yet... Probably start digging into it until after the @KU game

I am surprised @mred does not include the adjustment for home court that Torvik does when he goes through and calculates the odds on individual games. Home court is roughly a ~6ish point swing in college basketball, so that can flip some would-be close games one way or the other easily. Such adjustments now matter more, too, with the conference no longer having a balanced double round-robin schedule.

 

[bawbie]

The 2nd half pace, especially the last 10 minutes, was insane. I think UCF wanted as many possessions as they could get to cut into the lead, which was probably a good plan, although desperate.

That was an 80 possession game - which is the highest we've had in a while. PVAM non-conf game last year was higher, and Kennesaw St in TJ's first game was 81 - but those are the only 80 possession games in TJ's tenure

 

[mred]

I am surprised @mred does not include the adjustment for home court that Torvik does when he goes through and calculates the odds on individual games. Home court is roughly a ~6ish point swing in college basketball, so that can flip some would-be close games one way or the other easily. Such adjustments now matter more, too, with the conference no longer having a balanced double round-robin schedule.

View attachment 141643

If there were an easy way to incorporate it, I would.

 

[cyfan92]

If there were an easy way to incorporate it, I would.

I very much appreciate your format versus this:

Concast for B12 and - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

 

[Sigmapolis]

If there were an easy way to incorporate it, I would.

I can think of two ways.

(1.) Individually scrape the Torvik pages for each time for win %. Give the team with the higher percentage (which only goes to the XX% place) the win. If a tie, use the better T-Rank team.

(2.) This procedure is roughly what I do when I do analytical projects with Torvik data.

-- scrape the "main page" (mostly the ORTG and DRTG per 100 data)
-- create a NRTG by going ORTG minus DRTG = net rating per 100
-- compare the NRTG of the two teams to create a neutral-court spread
-- I usually give the home team 4.2/subtract 4.2 from the road team
-- the 8.4 swing per 100 is 6 * (100 possessions / 72 possessions per game)
-- compare the difference in net ratings to the historical win expectations by spreads
-- I have that historical data and could share it if you need it

Neither is as easy as just saying "higher T-Rank" wins, though.

 

[cyclones500]

mred's Big 12 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker

Big 12 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

bball.notnothing.net

Yep, I have this favorited, but have not visited it yet... Probably start digging into it until after the @KU game

That's the first time I've peeked at mred generator this season. Usually it's February before I begin to delve much.

Even if ISU isn't winning the conference, I'd take 18-2. That's still 1-seed territory, with only additional L being at Houston. If UH does finish 20-20 (monumental accomplishment) that road loss is moot.

 

[LivntheCyLife]

Their raw projection...

View attachment 141634

Give them the Iowa St. win in Lawrence...

View attachment 141636

Yeah, that seems off to me. I know they've got a couple good non-conf wins (also 2 losses) but if ISU goes 16-4 and KU goes 14-6 in Big 12, I'd be surprised if KU is a 2 and ISU is a 3.

 

[mred]

Neither is as easy as just saying "higher T-Rank" wins, though.

Yeah, and I don't consider my page an attempt to predict what is most likely to happen anyway. I just want a reasonable placeholder so people can run their own scenario with a starting point that isn't way out in left field -- several years ago, I just had the home team listed by default for everything. Last few years it had been NET ranking because that was easy to scrape.

 

[Die4Cy]

Their raw projection...

View attachment 141634

Give them the Iowa St. win in Lawrence...

View attachment 141636

Three SEC #1's isn't happening though.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Houston just held Utah to 36 (in 59 possessions granted but... yikes).

That equals out to an Adj DRTG of 60.4 for the Cougars.

Iowa St. put up an Adj DRTG of 87.9 against the Utes in comparison.

Houston is stupid good. They're not invincible (see their three losses) but have seemed to put a few things together since November. You gotta be a great team and play your best game to beat them.

 

[twincyties]

Win out equals first overall.

View attachment 141615

Lose Houston (and probably the most difficult) but win Arizona and Kansas.

View attachment 141616

Lose Houston and Phog Allen (nab Arizona, though Arizona/Kansas are very close in the metrics.

View attachment 141617

0/3

View attachment 141618

Looks like 3/3 or 2/3 give you a good spot for a #1

1/3 probably puts you borderline for #1/#2

0/3 and more on the #2/#3 line

I know these are just metrics but if we end with only 5 losses on the season and 1 of those is to presumed #1 Auburn and the other are @Houston, @KU, @Arizona and @WVU I really don’t see us getting a 3 seed.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I know these are just metrics but if we end with only 5 losses on the season and 1 of those is to presumed #1 Auburn and the other are @Houston, @KU, @Arizona and @WVU I really don’t see us getting a 3 seed.

Your argument there could be summarized as "no bad losses!"

The thing holding you back would be the opposite: "no transcendentally impressive wins."

#3 seeds can take care of business at home against teams like Arizona and Kansas.

But #1 seeds go into the lion's den and come out wearing his mane.

 

[twincyties]

Your argument there could be summarized as "no bad losses!"

The thing holding you back would be the opposite: "no transcendentally impressive wins."

#3 seeds can take care of business at home against teams like Arizona and Kansas.

But #1 seeds go into the lion's den and come out wearing his mane.

I don’t disagree with your point. But who are the 8 teams ahead of us at that point?

Auburn? Fine.

Duke? They’ll have the Auburn win and @Arizona. Not much else with ACC. Fine.

Houston if they beat us head to head and finished above us in conference. Fine:

Next in line is a log jam of SEC schools that - unless they start beating Auburn aren’t going to have materially better resumes than us.

 

[CychiatricWard]

Your argument there could be summarized as "no bad losses!"

The thing holding you back would be the opposite: "no transcendentally impressive wins."

#3 seeds can take care of business at home against teams like Arizona and Kansas.

But #1 seeds go into the lion's den and come out wearing his mane.

20-21 Illinois had 7 losses and earned a number 1 seed. They had two really good wins but also lost at home to a mediocre Marlyland and then some bad road losses.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I don’t disagree with your point. But who are the 8 teams ahead of us at that point?

Auburn? Fine.

Duke? They’ll have the Auburn win and @Arizona. Not much else with ACC. Fine.

Houston if they beat us head to head and finished above us in conference. Fine:

Next in line is a log jam of SEC schools that - unless they start beating Auburn aren’t going to have materially better resumes than us.

Iowa St. would be this if it wins everything from here on out save those tough road games:



Meanwhile Torvik has this projection for Alabama:



The RPI is *slobbering* on the SEC right now. They're going to have so many Q1 games compared to us (and by extension wins) that it isn't even funny. We're getting a taste of what it was like for the rest of college basketball back when the Big 12 was top to bottom with ten complete bangers.

Those SEC schools definitely can jump an Iowa St. without any super sexy wins.

20-21 Illinois had 7 losses and earned a number 1 seed. They had two really good wins but also lost at home to a mediocre Marlyland and then some bad road losses.

The top of the distribution is elastic year-to-year. Sometimes it is "weak" and kind of a mess so a team with what looks like a mediocre CV by the likely standards of this season can land a #1.

This year appears to require fewer blemishes (especially when 2/4 #1 spots are almost locked up by Auburn and Duke at this point assuming nothing disastrous happens for either).

 

[twincyties]

Iowa St. would be this if it wins everything from here on out save those tough road games:

View attachment 141649

Meanwhile Torvik has this projection for Alabama:

View attachment 141650

The RPI is *slobbering* on the SEC right now. They're going to have so many Q1 games compared to us (and by extension wins) that it isn't even funny. We're getting a taste of what it was like for the rest of college basketball back when the Big 12 was top to bottom with ten complete bangers.

Those SEC schools definitely can jump an Iowa St. without any super sexy wins.



The top of the distribution is elastic year-to-year. Sometimes it is "weak" and kind of a mess so a team with what looks like a mediocre CV by the likely standards of this season can land a #1.

This year appears to require fewer blemishes (especially when 2/4 #1 spots are almost locked up by Auburn and Duke at this point assuming nothing disastrous happens for either).

Appreciate these insights.

Am I correct this implies we only have 3 Quad 1 games the rest of the year?

 

[Clone95]

Appreciate these insights.

Am I correct this implies we only have 3 Quad 1 games the rest of the year?

At least 5: at aSU, at Az, at KU, at UH, AZ

Possibly a 6th: at UCF

 

[Sigmapolis]

Appreciate these insights.

Am I correct this implies we only have 3 Quad 1 games the rest of the year?

We have five remaining if the Torvik projections hold.

@ ASU
@ AZ
@ KU
@ UH
AZ

Four of them (minus @ ASU) are projected as Q-1A games.

The Big 12 still has some really good teams but...

We don't consistently play them home/home every season now (see Houston this year and Kansas last year) and the bottom of the conference is much weaker. The schedule isn't like how it was back when Georges and Buddy Hield were fighting it out and we knew they'd always play at least twice and team #9 in the conference wasn't all that different from team #3. We just don't have the same schedule quality automatically generated for us now that we have 16 teams and so many of them (e.g., Colorado) are not very good.

Losing to Auburn and getting Dayton and Colorado instead of North Carolina and Memphis in the second and third games on Maui hurts. I'm hoping next year the Las Vegas tournament would generate a more impressive set of game (Auburn was great sure but the other two are meh with Dayton and a dud with Colorado) and TJ and the staff look aggressively into finding some high-level non-con games. The Big East challenge is gone, too, so I would hope you at least look to replace it with something like a home/home series with somebody like Creighton or maybe try to find a neutral-site game somewhere (e.g., Duke in Chicago back in the day).

 

[qwerty]

I agree with the "need" for a signature road win over one of the 3 (AZ, KU, UH), but it is also really important to avoid a repeat of the WVU game. I expect at ASU and at UFC to be challenging. Yes, should win both, but the cbb season includes a lot of emotion and has ups & downs.

Start this next phase with 2 desert wins!

I don't think ASU or UCF have an NBA great alumni they will be celebrating during our game, so we should be safer there.