2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[1100011CS]

BIG 12 WINNER ODDS​

2023-24 Big 12 Opening Odds​

Listed below are the opening odds to win the 2023-24 Big 12 Regular Season.

Kansas Jayhawks +200
Houston Cougars +400
Texas Longhorns +700
Baylor Bears +850
Texas Christian Horned Frogs +900
Texas Tech Red Raiders +1400
Iowa State Cyclones +1400
Kansas State Wildcats +1500
West Virginia Mountaineers +2500
Brigham Young Cougars +3000
Cincinnati Bearcats +3500
Oklahoma State Cowboys +4000
Oklahoma Sooners +5500
Central Florida Knights +10000

I got it at +3000 in Nov Of course, will probably turn out like my Purdy MVP bet. Close but no cigar.

 

[NoCreativity]

I'd pit the current squad against the 2000 group and feel confident the results would be roughly 50/50. And I don't think this squad has maximized its potential either.

You're entitled to your opinion but I just don't see it. I think that team would have won the national title or at least gotten to the Final if we didn't run into Michigan State in their backyard. I've heard many analysts call that the defacto championship game.

This year's team is good and I understand it's a different landscape than 24 years ago, but I don't think you can say this years team has national title potential like the 00 team and to me that's the difference.

 

[Sigmapolis]

A singular vision for what the program is and will be + unselfish players having 100% knowledge of and commitment to their role + some INCREDIBLY perfect fits with no turds in the punchbowl.........this group just seems so good together. So much better than the sum of the parts.

It was mostly a rhetorical question.

Yet, I appreciate the answers in mutual amazement at the quality of the coaching and the program building.

 

[IlliniCy]

BIG 12 WINNER ODDS​

2023-24 Big 12 Opening Odds​

Listed below are the opening odds to win the 2023-24 Big 12 Regular Season.

Kansas Jayhawks +200
Houston Cougars +400
Texas Longhorns +700
Baylor Bears +850
Texas Christian Horned Frogs +900
Texas Tech Red Raiders +1400
Iowa State Cyclones +1400
Kansas State Wildcats +1500
West Virginia Mountaineers +2500
Brigham Young Cougars +3000
Cincinnati Bearcats +3500
Oklahoma State Cowboys +4000
Oklahoma Sooners +5500
Central Florida Knights +10000

Currently
	›	›	›	›	›
Houston	-165
Iowa State	+290
Kansas	+800
Baylor	+1500
Texas Tech	+2300
BYU	+6000

I'm holding an ISU +3000 ticket that I bought in Oct.

 

[blizzisu]

I'm holding an ISU +3000 ticket that I bought in Oct.

I just threw a few bucks on ISU at +5000 for the Natl. Title!

 

[NoCreativity]

The same is true in college. Fizer and Tinsley were great for their era, but I'm not sure they'd be so exceptional in terms of size and strength and skills compared to college players now

I disagree, I think the product is actually watered down a bit since 2000. In the age of transfers and not much roster continuity, I think that even proves how dominate they were. I mean, I think the relative competition level is higher than it is now in college basketball. I realize the Big 12 as a whole is probably better now though.

As much as I love Lipsey, Gilbert, and Jones, that backcourt was in a league all its own without even counting Fizer. I'd take Tinsley, Horton, Nurse over the current group.

 

[VeloClone]

I don't know about "wipe the floor". This year's Houston team is likely as good or better than the 2000 team, and we already beat them.

I don't know. The 2000 team was literally unbeatable in Hilton but Houston lost in their first game there.

 

[cyfan92]

How the heck is TJ doing this with a team that features zero P6 transfers (unless you count Tre King from Georgetown, though he never played a minute for them) and one 4* recruit.

Yeah there's a 5* recruit on the roster but he can't even find minutes.

1) The Hilton court will be named after Otz by the time he is done
2) The Mountain West is making a run to take over the Pac-12's spot in the P6 when the Pac 12 goes away this summer... The Mountain West lacks a 1 seed, but no one wants to play SDSU when the bracket is released in 5 weeks

 

[4theCYcle]

Withhold excitement and temper expectations. That was cool to see on X, hope this team can continue to grow and get that complete dominance takeover factor that I believe the 2000 team had. The FTs last game were something to be excited about and the versatility of winning under this team is amazing. Bodes well for several more road victories.

 

[Cyclonepride]

You're entitled to your opinion but I just don't see it. I think that team would have won the national title or at least gotten to the Final if we didn't run into Michigan State in their backyard. I've heard many analysts call that the defacto championship game.

This year's team is good and I understand it's a different landscape than 24 years ago, but I don't think you can say this years team has national title potential like the 00 team and to me that's the difference.

I will at least say that we should judge it at the end of the year. Could be a silly comparison by then. Could be a serious one. This team has placed itself in a spot where the latter is at least possible.

 

[VeloClone]

I've rewatched a lot of those games from 2000 recently and while there's no debating who the two best players are, there's also no debating that this squad is shaping up to be far more well-rounded.

In the tournament back in 2000 the squad struggled when Fizer couldn't get his. Good defenses like Auburn and Michigan State were really able to key in on him and we had to rely heavily on chucking. Tinsley hit an inordinate amount of threes at a high clip in the tournament when they were sorely needed. He was overall a poor 3 point shooter in the regular season.

There really isn't anybody to defensively "key in" on, on this roster - other than Milan's long shooting. We don't rely heavily on a Fizer-like dude. We also aren't forced to give significant minutes to a Stevie Johnson type on the current squad - specialists that don't give much offensively.

I'd pit the current squad against the 2000 group and feel confident the results would be roughly 50/50. And I don't think this squad has maximized its potential either.

Stevie averaged 9.1 points per game hitting 2/3 of his shots and also nabbed over 2 offensive rebounds a game. I wouldn't say that would be "not giving much offensively." That is right in line with Curtis Jones' and Tre King's scoring in similar minutes.

 

[cyfanatic13]

The comparing teams from different eras things is fun but is always so pointless to me. Totally different styles of basketball as the game evolves. Just a minor example of how much the game has changed. The 1999-2000 team attempted 14 threes a game which was 161st in the country, so almost smack dab in the middle (318 D1 teams at the time). This year's team is just shy of 19 threes per game which is 297th in the country (out of 351). Arkansas shot the most threes in 99-00 with 832 on the season in 34 games. North Florida has already shot 866 this season in 26 games and Arkansas' 832 would have been tied for 50th last season. Different game.

 

[Sigmapolis]

1) The Hilton court will be named after Otz by the time he is done
2) The Mountain West is making a run to take over the Pac-12's spot in the P6 when the Pac 12 goes away this summer... The Mountain West lacks a 1 seed, but no one wants to play SDSU when the bracket is released in 5 weeks

Isn't it already named after Johnny?

And I agree with you about the Mountain West. It's close to a power conference as it is right now and probably should be considered the western power conference once the Pac-12 vaporizes here soon and the de facto Pac-12 remnants (and poor OR St. and WA St.) end up joining with the MWC.

I don't think it should be one for football, but it has a compelling case for hoops.

 

[NENick]

I'd love to see Watson become Stevie Johnson (or Dustin Hogue) next year. (Replying to VeloClone)

 

[Cyclonepride]

Isn't it already named after Johnny?

And I agree with you about the Mountain West. It's close to a power conference as it is right now and probably should be considered the western power conference once the Pac-12 vaporizes here soon and the de facto Pac-12 remnants (and poor OR St. and WA St.) end up joining with the MWC.

I don't think it should be one for football, but it has a compelling case for hoops.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Gonzaga jump there if it keeps up (if they don't come to the Big 12).

 

[1UNI2ISU]

1) The Hilton court will be named after Otz by the time he is done
2) The Mountain West is making a run to take over the Pac-12's spot in the P6 when the Pac 12 goes away this summer... The Mountain West lacks a 1 seed, but no one wants to play SDSU when the bracket is released in 5 weeks

Colorado State is terrifying as well. Ball dominant point guard that's scored a million points and 8 other guys on the roster that shoot the 3 at a high clip.

It's a good league. They've made the wise, IMO, decision to dump a bunch of their football money into basketball and it's really paid off for them.

 

[VeloClone]

Well this is interested. ISU in the Final Four with KU right behind and Houston nowhere to be found.



I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, but I don't know about that.

 

[CascadeClone]

I know its BPI which is not the best, but still...


canonlygetsoerect.gif

 

[NorthCyd]

Well this is interested. ISU in the Final Four with KU right behind and Houston nowhere to be found.



I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, but I don't know about that.

Who or what is Jordan Stocks?

 

[alarson]

The comparing teams from different eras things is fun but is always so pointless to me. Totally different styles of basketball as the game evolves. Just a minor example of how much the game has changed. The 1999-2000 team attempted 14 threes a game which was 161st in the country, so almost smack dab in the middle (318 D1 teams at the time). This year's team is just shy of 19 threes per game which is 297th in the country (out of 351). Arkansas shot the most threes in 99-00 with 832 on the season in 34 games. North Florida has already shot 866 this season in 26 games and Arkansas' 832 would have been tied for 50th last season. Different game.

And that's with the 3 point line being over 2 feet closer back then too.