2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

cyclones500

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Another thing to remember for Big East-Big 12 Battle, five B12 teams won't play in ... unless they're going to allow some BE teams to double-up (and I'm not sure that would make sense).

I'd like to think all of Angry 8 would be included, but hard to say.
 

Messi

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Another thing to remember for Big East-Big 12 Battle, five B12 teams won't play in ... unless they're going to allow some BE teams to double-up (and I'm not sure that would make sense).

I'd like to think all of Angry 8 would be included, but hard to say.
i doubt 'Zona gets left out of an event like this
 
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cyclones500

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i doubt 'Zona gets left out of an event like this
Totally agree, I almost mentioned that specifically in my post, but assumed it might be self-evident. And of course Houston.

I wonder how many of the other 6 newcomers will be involved. BYU and at least 1 other ex-Pac, is a wild guess

Basically, I was just noting that ISU isn't guaranteed to play. We'll see. If not, we'd really need to pick up another non-cupcake somehow.
 

Messi

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Totally agree, I almost mentioned that specifically in my post, but assumed it might be self-evident. And of course Houston.

I wonder how many of the other 6 newcomers will be involved. BYU and at least 1 other ex-Pac, is a wild guess

Basically, I was just noting that ISU isn't guaranteed to play. We'll see. If not, we'd really need to pick up another non-cupcake somehow.

ideally ISU plays 6 high major non-con games every year but it seems to have been 5 as of late
4 are already locked in for 2024-25 so if ISU is not apart of big east challenge, need to find a home/home or a neutral site

should also note that the big east / big 12 challenge has yet to be signed off for past next season
 
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CyPunch

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ideally ISU plays 6 high major non-con games every year but it seems to have been 5 as of late
4 are already locked in for 2024-25 so if ISU is not apart of big east challenge, need to find a home/home or a neutral site

should also note that the big east / big 12 challenge has yet to be signed off for past next season

I hope we don't get skipped in Big 12/Big East. Assuming our team is good again, a regional non-conference foe in Hilton would be a huge draw for fans. Marquette, Butler, Xavier, etc.

If we do get skipped or the challenge doesn't happen, schedule a high major home and home or a neutral site game somewhere like Kansas City, Milwaukee, Sioux Falls, etc. Our fans would love a game like that... especially if it's on a Saturday. Neutral site familiarity could be a benefit come tourney time also.
 
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VeloClone

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Pre NH game update:

NH has dropped two spots to 156. That pretty much assures that if ISU beats them they drop the 5 or more spots to become just another Q4 win for ISU.

On another note V Tech is now down to NET 50. If they drop one more spot that becomes a Q2a loss for ISU. Hopefully they start figuring things out so that isn't a bigger blot on ISU's resume.
 

Sigmapolis

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Next year we'll have a much more challenging schedule

-Maui (UConn, UNC, Michigan St, Memphis, Auburn, Colorado, and Dayton)
-@ Iowa
-Big 12/Big East Opponent presumably in Hilton (Teams we haven't played - Butler, UConn, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Villanova, Xavier)

+ 20 Big 12 games instead of 18

It would be nice to add another high major or quality mid major game but I'm not sure it's necessary with that schedule. Our fanbase would eat up a regional neutral site game.

So we might get an extra B12 game?

(Colorado being in the field.)
 

Dirt Boy 2

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the matchups for this event are always nonsensical once you get past the "blueblood matchups"

tcu picked 5th in big 12 preseason but got paired with Georgetown who was picked 8th

isu picked 7th paired with depaul picked 11th

osu picked 10th paired with creighton picked 2nd

baylor picked 4th paired with Seton Hall picked 9th
I didn’t check on home and away games but with those splits in finishes I could see it as a way for your better teams set up for a road win without the home team loss being terrible if the visitors are the better team. Probably helps both teams.
 

isucy86

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ideally ISU plays 6 high major non-con games every year but it seems to have been 5 as of late
4 are already locked in for 2024-25 so if ISU is not apart of big east challenge, need to find a home/home or a neutral site

should also note that the big east / big 12 challenge has yet to be signed off for past next season
Pretty sure that is because the Big East doesn't have a TV deal with FOX beyond 2024/25. If the Big East and FOX get a deal done, I would expect the series will be renewed as both conferences have FOX as TV partner.

Otherwise, maybe we see a Big10/Big12 Challenge as both will have FOX as TV partners. The Big10/ACC Challenge ended this year.

Agree it would be great to have another rivalry game in addition to Iowa. It might be tough to convince Minnesota, Wisky, Marquette or Northwestern to agree since they probably don't want to give ISU more recruiting visibility in their states. I wouldn't mind playing Nebraska, Creighton, Oklahoma or Missouri. A 2 game Nov/Dec tournament in KC with ISU, KSU, Missouri and Nebraska would be a fun event.
 
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Messi

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Pretty sure that is because the Big East doesn't have a TV deal with FOX beyond 2024/25. If the Big East and FOX get a deal done, I would expect the series will be renewed as both conferences have FOX as TV partner.

Otherwise, maybe we see a Big10/Big12 Challenge as both will have FOX as TV partners. The Big10/ACC Challenge ended this year.

Agree it would be great to have another rivalry game in addition to Iowa. It might be tough to convince Minnesota, Wisky, Marquette or Northwestern to agree since they probably don't want to give ISU more recruiting visibility in their states. I wouldn't mind playing Nebraska, Creighton, Oklahoma or Missouri. A 2 game Nov/Dec tournament in KC with ISU, KSU, Missouri and Nebraska would be a fun event.

I think a challenge is we want to schedule these home/home with Midwest teams because we're recruiting those areas (MPLS, Wisconsin, etc) so it benefits ISU but, for the most part, there's no benefit to the team coming to Ames from a recruiting standpoint or local alumni base like there is with ISU alums in those major metropolitan areas.

Just spitballing but a few options I think would be good neutral sites
  • Wichita State in Kansas City
  • Nebraska in Kansas City
  • Wisconsin in Milwaukee
  • Anyone in Sioux Falls
  • Anyone in Las Vegas
 
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Sigmapolis

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Pretty sure that is because the Big East doesn't have a TV deal with FOX beyond 2024/25. If the Big East and FOX get a deal done, I would expect the series will be renewed as both conferences have FOX as TV partner.

Otherwise, maybe we see a Big10/Big12 Challenge as both will have FOX as TV partners. The Big10/ACC Challenge ended this year.

Agree it would be great to have another rivalry game in addition to Iowa. It might be tough to convince Minnesota, Wisky, Marquette or Northwestern to agree since they probably don't want to give ISU more recruiting visibility in their states. I wouldn't mind playing Nebraska, Creighton, Oklahoma or Missouri. A 2 game Nov/Dec tournament in KC with ISU, KSU, Missouri and Nebraska would be a fun event.

I'd want BOTH a B12/BE and B12/B10 challenge.

FOX has/should have the TV deal for all three conferences.

You'd think that'd be valuable inventory to sell all of them.

Mostly an excuse to get Kansas/Michigan State playing but hey if we get some interesting matchups with midwestern peers (e.g., Marquette, Creighton, Wisconsin, Indiana, etc.) then it's fun!

Something like this...

20 Big 12
h/a Iowa
Big East
Big Ten
3 neutral-site tournament
5 cupcakes OR 4 cupcakes/one other interesting neutral-site or h/a series
= 31

Sounds like a much better schedule than what we received this year.
 
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NENick

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Watched a few early minutes of Kansas-Wichita St game, then turned back to it late. Absolutely shocked that KU still had starters in with 3 minutes left, up 20! Doesn't Self understand the need to develop his depth?!

These young coaches. ;)
 
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madguy30

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I'd want BOTH a B12/BE and B12/B10 challenge.

FOX has/should have the TV deal for all three conferences.

You'd think that'd be valuable inventory to sell all of them.

Mostly an excuse to get Kansas/Michigan State playing but hey if we get some interesting matchups with midwestern peers (e.g., Marquette, Creighton, Wisconsin, Indiana, etc.) then it's fun!

Something like this...

20 Big 12
h/a Iowa
Big East
Big Ten
3 neutral-site tournament
5 cupcakes OR 4 cupcakes/one other interesting neutral-site or h/a series
= 31

Sounds like a much better schedule than what we received this year.

The B1G isn't going to risk having their brand tainted if the Big 12 beat them in that kind of challenge.

ESPN etc. really struggles with the Big 12 being the best conference.

Seems like they were OK with giving the ACC the stage as they have their own brand.
 

Sigmapolis

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The B1G isn't going to risk having their brand tainted if the Big 12 beat them in that kind of challenge.

ESPN etc. really struggles with the Big 12 being the best conference.

Seems like they were OK with giving the ACC the stage as they have their own brand.

I literally listened to Kirk Herbstreit say during the UGA/TCU national championship game last season that "only the SEC and the Big Ten can really compete for national titles" DURING A GAME WHERE A BIG 12 TEAM IN TCU WAS PLAYING AFTER BEATING MICHIGAN A WEEK EARLIER!!! AAAAAHHHH!!!

The moral of the story -- ESPN's ability to bend the narrative to its preferences is infinite. What is not infinite is their ability to draw eyeballs. You need matchups for that, and B10/B12 would deliver.
 
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VeloClone

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Iowa State beat UNH but their NET dropped from 5 to 6. UNH actually went up after the loss to 150 so still a Q3 win. Part of the reason for the drop was probably VTech (now NET 62) dropping to a Q2a loss.

Cyclones now:
Q1: 0-1
..Q1a: 0-1
..Q1b: 0-0
Q2: 2-1
..Q2a: 0-1
..Q2b: 2-0
Q3: 1-0
Q4: 8-0


Next 10: (opp, NET, Quad)
@OU 28 - Q1a (3 spots from dropping to a Q2a)
UH 1 - Q1a
OSU 137 - Q3 (dreadful)
@BYU 2 - Q1a
@TCU 43 - Q1b (3 spots from rising to a Q1a)
KSU 88 - Q3 (13 spots from rising to a Q2b)
KU 11 - Q1a (5 spots from dropping to a Q1b)
@BU 19 - Q1a
@UT 46 - Q1b
TCU 43 - Q2a

In the next 10:
5 Q1a
2 Q1b
1 Q2a
2 Q3

That's more quality in just the next ten than a lot of teams play in the entire season.

Wow, 4 of the next 5 and 7 of the next 9 are Q1 games. Please don't panic if ISU struggles. It is one of the toughest stretches any team anywhere is going to face.
 
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NoCreativity

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Iowa State beat UNH but their NET dropped from 5 to 6. UNH actually went up after the loss to 150 so still a Q3 win. Part of the reason for the drop was probably VTech (now NET 62) dropping to a Q2a loss.

Cyclones now:
Q1: 0-1
..Q1a: 0-1
..Q1b: 0-0
Q2: 2-1
..Q2a: 0-1
..Q2b: 2-0
Q3: 1-0
Q4: 8-0


Next 10: (opp, NET, Quad)
@OU 28 - Q1a (3 spots from dropping to a Q2a)
UH 1 - Q1a
OSU 137 - Q3 (dreadful)
@BYU 2 - Q1a
@TCU 43 - Q1b (3 spots from rising to a Q1a)
KSU 88 - Q3 (13 spots from rising to a Q2b)
KU 11 - Q1a (5 spots from dropping to a Q1b)
@BU 19 - Q1a
@UT 46 - Q1b
TCU 43 - Q2a

In the next 10:
5 Q1a
2 Q1b
1 Q2a
2 Q3

That's more quality in just the next ten than a lot of teams play in the entire season.

Wow, 4 of the next 5 and 7 of the next 9 are Q1 games. Please don't panic if ISU struggles. It is one of the toughest stretches any team anywhere is going to face.
BYU and Oklahoma are about to get exposed over the next month. It doesn't mean we'll win either game but I think they are closer to the 8-10 seed range than 3-5.
 

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