2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

CyPunch

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God bless @mred

No longer being guaranteed Thursday (unless you are a Top 4 seed) at the Big 12 tourney is another thing that stinks about the new 14 team league. Fun to have good basketball to watch on Wednesday but tougher for attending in person. The 8/9 and 7/10 games could be battles of teams on the bubble vying for bids.
 

Messi

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No longer being guaranteed Thursday (unless you are a Top 4 seed) at the Big 12 tourney is another thing that stinks about the new 14 team league. Fun to have good basketball to watch on Wednesday but tougher for attending in person. The 8/9 and 7/10 games could be battles of teams on the bubble vying for bids.
darn those mormons and their day of rest
 

cyclones500

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God bless @mred

Dang, I would take the default standings (3rd place, 14-4 record) in a microsecond. "Double-Gravy" is having head-to-head win over KU and hence winning tiebreaker.

(I still think KU will finish first, cuz that's what tends to occur).
 

exCYtable

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Iowa State beat UNH but their NET dropped from 5 to 6. UNH actually went up after the loss to 150 so still a Q3 win. Part of the reason for the drop was probably VTech (now NET 62) dropping to a Q2a loss.

Cyclones now:
Q1: 0-1
..Q1a: 0-1
..Q1b: 0-0
Q2: 2-1
..Q2a: 0-1
..Q2b: 2-0
Q3: 1-0
Q4: 8-0


Next 10: (opp, NET, Quad)
@OU 28 - Q1a (3 spots from dropping to a Q2a)
UH 1 - Q1a
OSU 137 - Q3 (dreadful)
@BYU 2 - Q1a
@TCU 43 - Q1b (3 spots from rising to a Q1a)
KSU 88 - Q3 (13 spots from rising to a Q2b)
KU 11 - Q1a (5 spots from dropping to a Q1b)
@BU 19 - Q1a
@UT 46 - Q1b
TCU 43 - Q2a

In the next 10:
5 Q1a
2 Q1b
1 Q2a
2 Q3

That's more quality in just the next ten than a lot of teams play in the entire season.

Wow, 4 of the next 5 and 7 of the next 9 are Q1 games. Please don't panic if ISU struggles. It is one of the toughest stretches any team anywhere is going to face.
"Please don't panic."
What happens when we go 7-2?
 

werdnamanhill

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Eastern IA -> Raleigh, NC -> Madison, WI
There's a very, very real possibility that Drake and UNI end up ranked higher than Iowa in the NET and I'm all the way here for 4th place Iowa.
I watched their game vs Wisconsin. They are so soft down low. They have 1 decent big and then nothing. Badgers in the second half just decided to go down low and it always worked. Currently at grad school in Madison so I am attempting to develop a rooting interest, although it hasn't quite taken yet in 2 years. Figured no better way than to watch them play Iowa
 

madguy30

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I watched their game vs Wisconsin. They are so soft down low. They have 1 decent big and then nothing. Badgers in the second half just decided to go down low and it always worked. Currently at grad school in Madison so I am attempting to develop a rooting interest, although it hasn't quite taken yet in 2 years. Figured no better way than to watch them play Iowa

Wisconsin was not very good at understanding that driving the ball is almost automatic vs. Iowa.

It's been that way for years even with Iowa's 'good' teams and it was always weird how teams wouldn't do it.
 

CyPunch

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Wisconsin was not very good at understanding that driving the ball is almost automatic vs. Iowa.

It's been that way for years even with Iowa's 'good' teams and it was always weird how teams wouldn't do it.

Not exactly true. Wisconsin scored 20 field goals in the paint against Iowa.

For reference, when we played Iowa we scored 16 field goals in the paint. We were more efficient in paint scoring (16-22) and the game was out of hand quicker so some discrepancies in game flow there.

The difference in those two games is we shot it well from 3 against Iowa (8-17), Wisconsin did not (4-16). Iowa was also able to keep it close with Wisconsin for a while thanks to a good shooting night on their end. They're going to struggle though when they aren't gifted a million free throws.
 

madguy30

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Not exactly true. Wisconsin scored 20 field goals in the paint against Iowa.

For reference, when we played Iowa we scored 16 field goals in the paint. We were more efficient in paint scoring (16-22) and the game was out of hand quicker so some discrepancies in game flow there.

The difference in those two games is we shot it well from 3 against Iowa (8-17), Wisconsin did not (4-16). Iowa was also able to keep it close with Wisconsin for a while thanks to a good shooting night on their end. They're going to struggle though when they aren't gifted a million free throws.

I'm talking driving the ball in general.

I was there and WI wasn't as aggressive as I would have thought.
 

werdnamanhill

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Eastern IA -> Raleigh, NC -> Madison, WI
Yeah, from the portion I saw, there were more entry passes into the paint than drives into the paint. Both are points in the paint, but the entry passes are easier (relatively speaking) for Iowa to defend.
Side note, impressed with UW this year. Seems like a much more talented squad than you might expect
 
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madguy30

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Side note, impressed with UW this year. Seems like a much more talented squad than you might expect

They're basically the same team as last year except guys like Stohr add some physicality and more dementions.

They have good wins but are kind of like ISU though in that it's hard to tell reallly how good they are or could be by March.