2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[treesap32]

This isn't true at all. Texas Tech is NET 64. If you beat them in their house it is a Q1b win. If you beat them on a neutral floor it is Q2a and if beat them at home it is a Q2b win.

Yes teams are definitely rewarded with better Quad wins for the overall NET resume by picking up road wins. What I was referring to is your actual NET Ranking itself. Winning on the road vs at home does not affect your overall NET ranking. In fact, in most cases, beating a cupcake team by 50 at home vaults you up higher than beating a good team on the road by 1 point. The 50 point cupcake win does nothing for your Quad resume, but it can boost your overall NET rating which is also a consideration come selection Sunday. The NET algorithm rewards these blowout wins a lot more than it should. In my humble opinion.

 

[CyCoug]

I love how the top 13 teams with the hardest remaining schedule are all from the big 12

Math didn’t add up for me for a second. Until I remembered conference realignment in the 2020s

 

[Dale]

Winning on the road vs at home does not affect your overall NET ranking.

From the NCAA's description of the NET: "The [only] remaining factors [after changes in 2020] include the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating. The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played. For example, a given efficiency value (net points per 100 possessions) against stronger opposition rates higher than the same efficiency against lesser opponents and having a certain efficiency on the road rates higher than the same efficiency at home."

 

[treesap32]

From the NCAA's description of the NET: "The [only] remaining factors [after changes in 2020] include the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating. The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played. For example, a given efficiency value (net points per 100 possessions) against stronger opposition rates higher than the same efficiency against lesser opponents and having a certain efficiency on the road rates higher than the same efficiency at home."

Thanks.

So yes it appears it is factored in. I wish we knew how much. All I know is that home blowout wins over cupcakes does wonders for your ranking. Is going on the road worth the risk for an unknown boost to NET ranking? It definitely benefits your quadrant resume if you can win those games.

 

[VeloClone]

Playing NH right now is an interesting dilemma. They are still at 154 NET which is a Q3 opponent at home so if you beat them by much at home they probably drop down to a Q4 win (161+), but if you get beat it is a Q3 loss. This is one reason NET isn't useful at this point of the season - too much volitility right now. Eventually what you did to them or they did to you now won't matter much in the grand scheme of their ranking so it will settle out in the end. By the same token one bad game or one game where a team plays out of their minds doesn't really move the needle much by the end of the season.

 

[NWICY]

Note: New redundant thread on NET was merged here if some posts/replies seem a bit out of sync.

Thanks!!!

 

[isucy86]

Didn't we go 11-2 and win a Thanksgiving tournament in 2018? I think we all know how that turned out.

Not saying that will happen again, but right now I don't think we know alot about this team.

Don't disagree. ISU could go 12-6 or 6-12 in Big12 play. I have no idea how good or bad we are.

But with this years team returning only 5 players (1 starter) from last year, I feel like this was the type of schedule TJ needed. Sure it would have been nice if Iowa and DePaul tested ISU more. Maybe next year if we make the NCAA's this spring, we will get a better match-up in the Big12vBigEast Challenge.

The reality is Iowa State isn't a national darling, so at this point in TJ's tenure, the Clones aren't going to be invited to 1-day events where 2 P5 schools face-off on a neutral court. Look at the schedules for blue bloods like UNC, MSU, KU, UK, etc.- the only games where they are being challenged are: annual rivalry games, multi-game tournaments or 1-day National TV events.

 

[Messi]

Don't disagree. ISU could go 12-6 or 6-12 in Big12 play. I have no idea how good or bad we are.

But with this years team returning only 5 players (1 starter) from last year, I feel like this was the type of schedule TJ needed. Sure it would have been nice if Iowa and DePaul tested ISU more. Maybe next year if we make the NCAA's this spring, we will get a better match-up in the Big12vBigEast Challenge.

The reality is Iowa State isn't a national darling, so at this point in TJ's tenure, the Clones aren't going to be invited to 1-day events where 2 P5 schools face-off on a neutral court. Look at the schedules for blue bloods like UNC, MSU, KU, UK, etc.- the only games where they are being challenged are: annual rivalry games, multi-game tournaments or 1-day National TV events.

Is KSU any better than ISU? they scheduled "better" and were invited into the one off neutral court games you mention

2023-24 Men's Basketball Schedule - Kansas State University Athletics

The official 2023-24 Men's Basketball schedule for the Kansas State University Wildcats

www.kstatesports.com

the schedule is what it is and TJ wants it that way but let's not act like ISU "cant" get better games if they didn't want to. Both Hoiberg and Prohm did.

 

[CRCySpy]

Don't forget, next year ISU plays 20, 2 more than current, Big 12 games. One of those will be at Hilton and one will be on the road.

This year ISU has 18 games at Hilton. Next year they may only have 17. Iowa will be on the road, a Big East opponent will be at home, and 3 neutral site games in Maui. So, I am guessing JP will schedule 6 cupcakes to fill out the other home games.

25 of their 31 regular season games next year will be against P6 teams. 20 in the toughest conference in college basketball, and everyone knows the Maui field is always loaded with some of the best teams in the NCAA.

This team is going to need some easier nights next year. So go ahead and schedule the directional schools because their schedule next year is already challenging enough, and there will be plenty of opportunities for good wins.

 

[Messi]

Don't forget, next year ISU plays 20, 2 more than current, Big 12 games. One of those will be at Hilton and one will be on the road.

This year ISU has 18 games at Hilton. Next year they may only have 17. Iowa will be on the road, a Big East opponent will be at home, and 3 neutral site games in Maui. So, I am guessing JP will schedule 6 cupcakes to fill out the other home games.

25 of their 31 regular season games next year will be against P6 teams. 20 in the toughest conference in college basketball, and everyone knows the Maui field is always loaded with some of the best teams in the NCAA.

This team is going to need some easier nights next year. So go ahead and schedule the directional schools because their schedule next year is already challenging enough, and there will be plenty of opportunities for good wins.

I wonder (hope) if big 12 will have some conference games before January like the big 10 does? Would be nice to have a couple high major games between cyhawk and start of conference play

 

[CRCySpy]

I wonder (hope) if big 12 will have some conference games before January like the big 10 does? Would be nice to have a couple high major games between cyhawk and start of conference play

Yeah, I was wondering about this too. Obviously, Big 12 play will have to start earlier. The Iowa game is played before the students hit holiday break, and I'm sure schools would like to get as many conference games in while the students are still on campus.

 

[alarson]

Yeah, I was wondering about this too. Obviously, Big 12 play will have to start earlier. The Iowa game is played before the students hit holiday break, and I'm sure schools would like to get as many conference games in while the students are still on campus.

Yep. We probably see something similar to what the big 10 has- a couple conference games before break, then back to a couple buy games during break.

No one wants the big games when students are gone and people are busy with holiday things.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Is KSU any better than ISU? they scheduled "better" and were invited into the one off neutral court games you mention

2023-24 Men's Basketball Schedule - Kansas State University Athletics

The official 2023-24 Men's Basketball schedule for the Kansas State University Wildcats

www.kstatesports.com

the schedule is what it is and TJ wants it that way but let's not act like ISU "cant" get better games if they didn't want to. Both Hoiberg and Prohm did.

K-State was a #3 seed last year and made the Elite Eight. They beat Kentucky and Michigan State along the way in memorable games and went down to the wire with FAU for the Final Four slot. Jerome Tang won the Naismith Award. They were definitely the "toast" of college basketball after all that.

So, I'm not surprised the phone started ringing for some of those marquis games.

We definitely could do better than these <300 cupcakes. It's a deliberate choice. But I don't think anybody was calling Ames to set up a schedule like the one K-State is playing and somewhat struggling against. I would love it as a fan -- much more of an interesting viewing experience then beating another cupcake by 40+ even if you're going to lose some of those games. We're just not that big of draw.

Sometimes you can luck into it, though. The final McDermott team played Duke in Chicago at the United Center. I think Duke just wanted a game there and started calling around for potential opponents to come get punched in the face by them, and seemed like the Cyclones decided to volunteer as tribute.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

I wonder (hope) if big 12 will have some conference games before January like the big 10 does? Would be nice to have a couple high major games between cyhawk and start of conference play

I'm sure you will. The same guy that does Big 12 scheduling does Valley scheduling and we got 2 late Nov/early Dec league games when we went to 20 last year.

I'm sure I'll get used to it eventually but it's real weird.

 

[CyPunch]

Don't disagree. ISU could go 12-6 or 6-12 in Big12 play. I have no idea how good or bad we are.

But with this years team returning only 5 players (1 starter) from last year, I feel like this was the type of schedule TJ needed. Sure it would have been nice if Iowa and DePaul tested ISU more. Maybe next year if we make the NCAA's this spring, we will get a better match-up in the Big12vBigEast Challenge.

The reality is Iowa State isn't a national darling, so at this point in TJ's tenure, the Clones aren't going to be invited to 1-day events where 2 P5 schools face-off on a neutral court. Look at the schedules for blue bloods like UNC, MSU, KU, UK, etc.- the only games where they are being challenged are: annual rivalry games, multi-game tournaments or 1-day National TV events.

Next year we'll have a much more challenging schedule

-Maui (UConn, UNC, Michigan St, Memphis, Auburn, Colorado, and Dayton)
-@ Iowa
-Big 12/Big East Opponent presumably in Hilton (Teams we haven't played - Butler, UConn, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Villanova, Xavier)

+ 20 Big 12 games instead of 18

It would be nice to add another high major or quality mid major game but I'm not sure it's necessary with that schedule. Our fanbase would eat up a regional neutral site game.

 

[alexssdean12]

Next year will have a much more challenging schedule

-Maui (UConn, UNC, Michigan St, Memphis, Auburn, Colorado, and Dayton)
-@ Iowa
-Big 12/Big East Opponent presumably in Hilton (Teams we haven't played - Butler, UConn, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Villanova, Xavier)

+ 20 Big 12 games instead of 18

It would be nice to add another high major or quality mid major game but I'm not sure it's necessary with that schedule. Our fanbase would eat up a regional neutral site game.

Would assume we wouldn't be on the same side as Colorado in Maui as we play them next year in the Big 12.

I would also think they wouldn't pair us up with UConn in the big12/big east challenge if we have a chance to play them in Maui. I'm hoping for Marquette.

 

[CyPunch]

Would assume we wouldn't be on the same side as Colorado in Maui as we play them next year in the Big 12.

I would also think they wouldn't pair us up with UConn in the big12/big east challenge if we have a chance to play them in Maui. I'm hoping for Marquette.

I doubt we get UConn or Villanova unless we finish top 3 in the Big 12 or something this year. Those big brands are usually reserved for Kansas, Baylor, Houston. I could see any of the rest as viable options. Hopefully no repeats unless it's Creighton.

 

[Messi]

I doubt we get UConn or Villanova unless we finish top 3 in the Big 12 or something this year. Those big brands are usually reserved for Kansas, Baylor, Houston. I could see any of the rest as viable options. Hopefully no repeats unless it's Creighton.

the matchups for this event are always nonsensical once you get past the "blueblood matchups"

tcu picked 5th in big 12 preseason but got paired with Georgetown who was picked 8th

isu picked 7th paired with depaul picked 11th

osu picked 10th paired with creighton picked 2nd

baylor picked 4th paired with Seton Hall picked 9th

 

[NENick]

I would also think they wouldn't pair us up with UConn in the big12/big east challenge if we have a chance to play them in Maui. I'm hoping for Marquette.

Would seem odd, but in 2019-2020 played 13th ranked Seton Hall in a Thanksgiving tournament (lost by 8), then turned around and beat them by 10, 2 weeks later.

 

[NoCreativity]

Next year we'll have a much more challenging schedule

-Maui (UConn, UNC, Michigan St, Memphis, Auburn, Colorado, and Dayton)
-@ Iowa
-Big 12/Big East Opponent presumably in Hilton (Teams we haven't played - Butler, UConn, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Villanova, Xavier)

+ 20 Big 12 games instead of 18

It would be nice to add another high major or quality mid major game but I'm not sure it's necessary with that schedule. Our fanbase would eat up a regional neutral site game.

Hopefully we get Marquette or Butler in Hilton next year. Providence might be interesting also.

We've played Xavier, Uconn, and Villanova already in TJs tenure so I'd rather not play them. It's likely Uconn gets a Kansas Houston type matchup anyways.