Meh we will be in.
2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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Meh we will be in.
I'm gettin' annoyed we don't have a conference schedule yet. Seems like we are the only conf who hasn't released it.
I'll bet early next week. The Valley came out today and the same guy does both leagues. I believe the ACC comes out on Tuesday as well.
HIs name is Kevin Pauga. He's an associate AD at Michigan State.
He works with the Big 12 and Valley, and a couple other leagues I believe, as a liaison to TV partners to prioritize getting specific games in the windows that TV wants them in while at the same time using metrics to predict who the better teams in the league are so that you get the most important games in the most important spots for TV and for having meaningful games down the stretch in February/March. It's a pretty neat process.
Yeah there's no way, if those projections come true, that we only lose 1 non-con game and go 8-10 in conference and miss the tourney. 2/3 of our games will be quad 1 games
EvanMiya CBB Analytics
Advanced college basketball analytics, home of the Bayesian Performance Rating
evanmiya.com
updated 2023-24 rankings
Iowa State is 37th. Our offensive rank is 75 and defensive is 10.
Tamin listed at the 8th best player in the Big 12.
This is mostly data based off of last season.
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I think Iowa State's offense can be top 50 this season, and their defense should remain in the top ten neighborhood. If that happens, ISU is definitely a top 20 team.
Texas Tech #23?
Texas Tech #23?
KenPom is now updated.
Iowa State is 31st.
3rd in AdjD
79th in AdjO
Iowa State is 31st.
3rd in AdjD
79th in AdjO
I'm expecting a drop in defense but still good. Maybe 15 -20 but a large jump in offense into the top 40.
This might only be of interest to me, but I built a model this afternoon (inspired by @Dale and the model for the Big 12 football championship game) for Iowa State's path in the Orlando tournament.
Turns out the tournament is pretty "flat." Nobody is expected to dominate --
Iowa State's projected finish --
Iowa State's projected opponent by round --
Boise State is a slight favorite over Virginia Tech.
The Cyclones are *slightly* more likely to see Texas A&M or Butler in the last game.
Turns out the tournament is pretty "flat." Nobody is expected to dominate --
| Team | Average | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Texas A&M | 4.27 | 14.8% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 11.0% |
| Florida Atlantic | 4.36 | 14.2% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 11.5% |
| Iowa St. | 4.46 | 12.0% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 11.9% |
| Virginia Tech | 4.50 | 12.8% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 12.3% |
| Boise St. | 4.48 | 12.6% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 12.1% |
| VCU | 4.56 | 12.1% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 12.8% |
| Butler | 4.64 | 11.3% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 13.9% |
| Penn St. | 4.73 | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 14.6% |
Iowa State's projected finish --
Iowa State's projected opponent by round --
Boise State is a slight favorite over Virginia Tech.
The Cyclones are *slightly* more likely to see Texas A&M or Butler in the last game.
I thought the results above were too "generic" looking back at them. Having done more research, I don't think I was converting Torvik net rating projections by team into win expectations for Team A versus Team B very well. I think I've cleaned that up, and I've reran this tournament 10,000 times.
Here is what it looks like now...
Here is what it looks like now...
Watching Lakers Nuggets to satiate my basketball needs. I'm getting so excited for the season to start. I love Cyclone and college basketball
Something else that might only be interesting to me...
I took the spreadsheet I used to project the Orlando tournament and applied it to the Big 12. The Torvik site already does this. However, I wondered how much of an advantage or a disadvantage the new Big 12 schedule (which is not a full round robin, as well all know) offered the various teams.
Here is how it looks...
"Full Wins" = expected wins by team (which would require 26 games) multiplied by 18 games (comparing 26 games to 18 games is meaningless so hence I used the win percent to adjust)
"Actual Wins" = expected wins (out of 18) with the actual home/away Big 12 schedule
Delta Wins = what the partial schedule adds or costs relative to the full schedule
The schedules are overall fairly balanced. I find it sort of odd two of the newbies (BYU and Cincinnati) have the easiest schedules while Baylor got it the worst. It does look like the conference tried to do a fair job, though, and didn't try to favor Kansas and Houston or to screw Oklahoma and Texas too hard.
I wish they had.
I took the spreadsheet I used to project the Orlando tournament and applied it to the Big 12. The Torvik site already does this. However, I wondered how much of an advantage or a disadvantage the new Big 12 schedule (which is not a full round robin, as well all know) offered the various teams.
Here is how it looks...
"Full Wins" = expected wins by team (which would require 26 games) multiplied by 18 games (comparing 26 games to 18 games is meaningless so hence I used the win percent to adjust)
"Actual Wins" = expected wins (out of 18) with the actual home/away Big 12 schedule
Delta Wins = what the partial schedule adds or costs relative to the full schedule
The schedules are overall fairly balanced. I find it sort of odd two of the newbies (BYU and Cincinnati) have the easiest schedules while Baylor got it the worst. It does look like the conference tried to do a fair job, though, and didn't try to favor Kansas and Houston or to screw Oklahoma and Texas too hard.
I wish they had.
We're going to need to do a spreadsheet intervention with you by the time the season starts
No way. Give me all the bball stats @Sigmapolis . Don't let them hold you down!
All in good fun, I enjoy them
