2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

Sigmapolis

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As assumed, that puts Milan at the 4 for 20 of his 30 minutes and would change our offensive looks. He's probably playing the 4 about 7 minutes a game right now

True. But as Saban says...

Players. Formations. Plays.

Put your best eight men out there and it'll work out.
 

bosco

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I hope they can just copy-pate Osunniyi and Ward and be done with it.

I know we can't offer the same $$$ as others but I'd hope the combination of connection with the staff, a guy wanting to be in Iowa/the Midwest, plenty of minutes to showcase yourself on a burgeoning program, the chances to play with some ace guards, and a chance to win big games would be enough to induce a guy to take less money for a better opportunity and to be part of a winning program now.
Going far in the Tournament could showcase what you stated above. In the eyes of prospective bigs that they may want to come here in spite of bigger money offers as long as we can come close to those other offers.
 
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Clone95

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As assumed, that puts Milan at the 4 for 20 of his 30 minutes and would change our offensive looks. He's probably playing the 4 about 7 minutes a game right now
It’s more than you think. Tre and Watson played a combined 22 mins last night so Milan played the 4 18 mins. It was probably more than usual but I bet it’s at least 10 mins a night.
 

4theCYcle

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Bigs are way more in demand in the NIL market than guards. Not saying ISU can’t attract some good ones and getting 2 bigs will definitely be the focus, but I expect them to get at least 1 that has multiple years of eligibility and needs further development like Rob. There is a mile of difference between year 1 Rob and year 3 Rob.
Yes, but I would hope that TJ could muster up a pitch that says hey, look at recent success and these are the guards that you get to play with and feed you the ball. So, may not be the highest offer, but the surrounding team could be a convincing factor as well.
 

Sigmapolis

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It’s more than you think. Tre and Watson played a combined 22 mins last night so Milan played the 4 18 mins. It was probably more than usual but I bet it’s at least 10 mins a night.

Yeah, I don't think having another big-time guard on the roster who mostly replaces Watson and Pav's minutes and shaves a little off each of the other lead guards somehow forces Milan to the "4" with more frequency. You're still playing the three big men just about as much as before.
 

NoCreativity

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Anybody have any info about Hamilton this year?

Our backcourt is pretty much set next year unless he wants a 4th guard to get significant minutes. Pav is the 4th this year and barely seeing the floor so there won't be much PT available for guards next year.
 

Cyclonepride

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Anybody have any info about Hamilton this year?

Our backcourt is pretty much set next year unless he wants a 4th guard to get significant minutes. Pav is the 4th this year and barely seeing the floor so there won't be much PT available for guards next year.
I feel like TJ would love to continue to rotate guys in and out so they can all play balls to the wall when they're in there, and I think we're seeing some of the fruits of that this year as guys are fresher for the home stretch. I think that gives Hamilton some opportunities if he is ready, even if it's only 6-8 minutes a game.
 

NoCreativity

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I feel like TJ would love to continue to rotate guys in and out so they can all play balls to the wall when they're in there, and I think we're seeing some of the fruits of that this year as guys are fresher for the home stretch. I think that gives Hamilton some opportunities if he is ready, even if it's only 6-8 minutes a game.
I did notice compared to other Big 12 teams top 4 doesn't play as heavy minutes as other teams. Milan is our top minute guy and I think he's 17th in the Big 12 in minutes.

Tech has 3 guys playing over 80% of their teams minutes.
 
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bawbie

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Anybody have any info about Hamilton this year?

Our backcourt is pretty much set next year unless he wants a 4th guard to get significant minutes. Pav is the 4th this year and barely seeing the floor so there won't be much PT available for guards next year.
We also have Industrus and Pierce coming in - Pierce is more of a project, for sure, but Industrus I'd expect to play some - but you are right about being set in the back court
 

Jer

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Iowa? Welp, burn it all to the ground and start over.
That 2021 team is a perfect example of their metrics only looking good because of a couple good players and an easy schedule. And then you look to the right and see the typical R32 exit to validate it.
 
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Dale

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I can't find a way to force certain game outcomes on Torvik and then recalculate the conference odds. You can do that for its bracketology, but not for who is going to win the Big 12.

@Dale has a way to simulate this.

Yep:

Exact ScenarioscurrentISU over TTISU over TT/UHTT over ISU
Houston alone:58%55%11%70%
Houston/ISU tie:17%19%22%7%
ISU alone:17%20%62%5%
Houston/TT tie:2%<.5%<.5%6%
Houston/TT/ISU tie:1%1%1%2%
TT alone:1%<.5%<.5%3%
Other:4%5%4%7%
Championships w/ TiescurrentISU over TTISU over TT/UHTT over ISU
Houston:81%79%36%89%
ISU:37%43%87%18%
TT:4%2%1%14%
Baylor:2%2%2%3%
BYU:1%1%2%2%
Kansas:1%1%<.5%1%
 

NoCreativity

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That 2021 team is a perfect example of their metrics only looking good because of a couple good players and an easy schedule. And then you look to the right and see the typical R32 exit to validate it.
Lmao, they had 8 Quad 1 wins in a much tougher conference 3 years ago. The Big 10 had 5 of the top 16 seeds. They also went 14-6 in the Big Ten. That will get you a 2 or 3 seed most years from that league.

They lost to Oregon becuase they didn't play defense and ran up against a more athletic team. Stuff like that happens, we should have been much better than UAB and Pitt but looked like dog**** against them.
 

Cyhig

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Lmao, they had 8 Quad 1 wins in a much tougher conference 3 years ago. The Big 10 had 5 of the top 16 seeds. They also went 14-6 in the Big Ten. That will get you a 2 or 3 seed most years from that league.

They lost to Oregon becuase they didn't play defense and ran up against a more athletic team. Stuff like that happens, we should have been much better than UAB and Pitt but looked like dog**** against them.
Of those 5 Big 10 teams that had a 4 seed or better in the 2021 tournament, only 1 made it to the second weekend. That includes 3 teams which were seeded 1 or 2.

But we are talking about a conference that hasn't produced a national title winner in 23 years. So we shouldn't be shocked. It was from that tournament that people really changed their views of the Big 10 and considered it to be overrated.
 

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