2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

Cyclonepride

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That math sounds about right. UConn is very much the final boss of this regional bracket.

Torvik has the Washington St. game at 68-60 for Iowa State right now (78% win expectation).

Illinois doesn't frighten me, but UConn terrifies me. They're really good and peaking right now.
I was surprised to hear last night that UConn has the most comebacks this year. Seems like an odd note for a defending champion/overall number one seed
 
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Sigmapolis

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I was surprised to hear last night that UConn has the most comebacks this year. Seems like an odd note for a defending champion/overall number one seed

I hope the team can make it that far. An Elite Eight is nothing to be ashamed of even if you wanted more when you run into the favorite for the national championship. Remember, too, Iowa State and UConn played out in Portland last year and it was relatively competitive with eight minutes to go...

https://barttorvik.com/box.php?muid=ConnecticutIowa+St.11-27&year=2023
 

Sigmapolis

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Funny enough our odds haven't changed much as we've advanced.

Illinois and UConn winning their games has a lot to do with that -- the possibility of an easier matchup against a team that upset somebody has basically been foreclosed at this point.

1711381514252.png

Not a ton of projections left to do this season but...

1711381541798.png
 

Letterkenny

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I like to see what the metrics look like after games like last night that just felt awful. BT gave us a game score of 81, which is pretty crazy given how close we were to beating a very good team and advancing to the Elite 8.
View attachment 126614
Felt like we played pretty bad, despite almost winning. I'm guessing Illinois didn't play well either, especially with the missed free throws. Both teams missed a lot of shots they should/could make. If 'C' is average, I think we played a D game. Illinois probably played a C- or C.
 
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qwerty

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I like to see what the metrics look like after games like last night that just felt awful. BT gave us a game score of 81, which is pretty crazy given how close we were to beating a very good team and advancing to the Elite 8.
View attachment 126614

Compare that to Illinois performance of 98.0 against us.

1711729315629.png
 

Sigmapolis

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Ended up #53 offense and #1 defense as of our final game on KP. A nice improvement from last year

The floor for a serious national title contender is top 40 in both.

The offense was better. Just not quite good enough yet for our highest ambitions (e.g., winning the Big 12 regular season, #1 seed in the tournament, and appearing in the third weekend).

Assuming we can retain Tamin, KG, Jiggy Curt, and Milan and fill in behind them however... the sky is going to be the limit for next year. Easily the most anticipated season since Niang's senior year.
 

Cyclonepride

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I like to see what the metrics look like after games like last night that just felt awful. BT gave us a game score of 81, which is pretty crazy given how close we were to beating a very good team and advancing to the Elite 8.
View attachment 126614
I think the metrics fall down when it comes to specific games, particularly important specific games and more specifically, important specific games in the tournament. I've watched Illinois 5 or so times this year, and at no point was I impressed with their defense. Clearly they've stepped it up when it mattered.
 

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