How many times do we have to learn the hard way with Drake/UNI?
2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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How many times do we have to learn the hard way with Drake/UNI?
Yeah, he was the main thing I remember about that weekend, along with Bradley giving a scare to Michigan State, and Musselman coaching Nevada. The rest of it I don't remember much, I dont think any of the games were really that good.
Maybe this year we'll get some buzzer beaters.
To weigh in on this whole 5 vs. 6 seed thing.
5 seeds win the the first round 64.6% of the time. 6 seeds win 62.5%.
5 seeds make the sweet 16 34%. 6 seeds 29.9%.
There's not a huge gap between 5-7 seeds. The big jump is going from a 5 to a 4.
A funky stat is 6 seeds having a 10.4% of making the Elite 8, which is much higher than the 5 seeds, though. Probably a relatively small small sample size.
So it's better to be a 5 seed, but the difference is small. Everyone just correlates 5 seeds with being upset a lot because for some reason the 5/6 line seems to be the cut-off on what people consider to be a true "upset". No one considers a 9 over an 8 to be an upset. No one really considers a 10 over a 7 to be an upset. 11 over a 6 is a little upset, but nothing to get excited about. It seems to be the 12 over a 5 where people start to get excited. I'm guessing a lot of that is because 12's are often mid majors beating a high major, so it feels like more of an upset.
This has everything you need to know: https://www.boydsbets.com/bracket-tips-by-seed/
5 seeds win the the first round 64.6% of the time. 6 seeds win 62.5%.
5 seeds make the sweet 16 34%. 6 seeds 29.9%.
There's not a huge gap between 5-7 seeds. The big jump is going from a 5 to a 4.
A funky stat is 6 seeds having a 10.4% of making the Elite 8, which is much higher than the 5 seeds, though. Probably a relatively small small sample size.
So it's better to be a 5 seed, but the difference is small. Everyone just correlates 5 seeds with being upset a lot because for some reason the 5/6 line seems to be the cut-off on what people consider to be a true "upset". No one considers a 9 over an 8 to be an upset. No one really considers a 10 over a 7 to be an upset. 11 over a 6 is a little upset, but nothing to get excited about. It seems to be the 12 over a 5 where people start to get excited. I'm guessing a lot of that is because 12's are often mid majors beating a high major, so it feels like more of an upset.
This has everything you need to know: https://www.boydsbets.com/bracket-tips-by-seed/
Was at that game and was specifically trying to watch the guard that was heavily recruited by ISU but we let him go close to signing day (can't recall his name but I think it started with a A). But Gabe stole the show.
Yeah, Coffey was big time recruit for them. Jordan Murphy was their stud player and they also had Oturu I think who was a big time recruit at the time.
Probably their last time they were relevant with little Pitino.
Overall, it was kind of a dud, but it was first time I attended NCAA tournament, so the novelty was cool (and weekend was memorable reconnecting with college group of friends).
No major seed upsets or buzzer-beaters, most games weren't all that close. As you said Bradley stayed within striking distance of MSU. Florida hung w/ U-M until halftime, but Michigan pulled away quickly.
Yeah, that was my first time also and became hooked instantly. Me and a couple buddies then decided to go to Omaha the next year because we had such a good time, bit unfortunately the next year was when Covid happened.
I've been to alot of different sporting events and March Madness was my favorite.
5 seeds have to go thru the 1's. And generally there is a gap between the 1s and 2s, especially the top 1s vs bottom 2s.
Making it to Friday is so much fun. Plus playing KU is a great experience down there and would make a great environment. Don’t care one way or another if we win that game but if you do, might as well win the whole damn thing lol
IMO if were on the 4 or 5 line it's looking likely that Albany or Orlando are the two host options. If ISU is a 6 it opens up everything else including potentially DSM.
Correct. I'm not saying its a good chance, just better than if were 4 or 5 from the bracketologists I'm following.
I only check Lundardi, I know he's not liked, but it gives you a good idea. He has us as a 5 in Greensboro right now with Virgina as the 4.
I think Marquette is the other problem, they are projected as a 3 seed right now and Des Moines is the closest.
Even if Both K-State and Marquette drop to a 4 then K-State stays in Des Moines and we won't get slotted vs. them as the 5.
I think Des Moines only happens one of two ways. Either we sort of drop to the 6 and K-State Drops to a 4 and we are in the 3 Marquette vs. 6 Iowa State line
or ISU goes on a tear and wins or gets to the final of the Big 12 tourney and K-State lays an egg in their game and we somehow get the same seed as K-State, either as a 4 or a 3. I think both are unlikely.
A 5 or 6 somewhere we all would have singed up for after last year. I just don't want to see Drake as the first round opponent.
Sign me up. This guy is one of the best at this. I know many want 4/5 but I like this draw
heatcheckcbb.com
Bracketology: Heat Check CBB March Madness projections — Heat Check CBB
Heat Check CBB's Lukas Harkins is one of the most accurate bracketologists in the business. Check out his latest March Madness predictions.
heatcheckcbb.com
http://bracketmatrix.com/ is always a fun site to check out. Obviously, a lot more games to play this week that could adjust things but my prediction is if we're a 5 will most likely be in Orlando or Albany.
I found this article.
How the field of 68 DI men’s teams is picked for March Madness
The NCAA’s guide to how the 68 teams are chosen, seeded and bracketed for the Division I men's basketball tournament every season.
It specifically says "the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first four lines at a potential “home-crowd disadvantage” in the first round." I'm guessing that eliminates Iowa State from Des Moines, unless they say that Des Moines is already a home court for Marquette, but I doubt thats true.
Another 3 seed that could get Des Moines is Gonzaga. Denver and Sacramento will likely be full before they get a spot.
Another line is this: "A team may be moved up or down one (or in extraordinary circumstances) two lines from its true seed line (e.g., from the 13 seed line to the 12 seed line; or from a 12 seed line to a 13 seed line) when it is placed in the bracket if necessary to meet the principles."
So based on that, if Iowa State was a 6 seed and theoretically should be in Des Moines, they would move them to a 5 or a 7 seed to accomodate.
So here is a hypothetical.
Baylor wins the Big 12 and becomes a 2 seed. Texas looses game 1 and becomes a 3 seed. Kansas State is a 3 seed. Kansas is a 1 seed. Lets say Kansas is in the Midwest, Baylor gets the West, Texas gets the South and Kansas State gets the East.
Iowa State can't be in the South or East because they can't match up with Texas or Kansas State in round 2.
Iowa State can't be in the West because they played Baylor 3 times and can't play them again until the elite 8.
Iowa State likely can't be in the Midwest as a 6 seed bec ause it would be a potential home-crowd disadvantage.
Iowa State likely either moves up to the 5 seed or down to a 7 seed.
