2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

[clone52]

I think Iowa State's only hope at Des Moines is this.
Iowa State wins the Big 12 tournament and gets on the 3 or 4 seed line.
Indiana wins the Big 10 tournament.
Virginia wins the ACC tournament.
Kansas State loses in round 1.
Marquette, Xavier and UConn lose quick in the Big East.
Gonzaga loses tonight in the semi-finals. Maybe even need St. Mary's to.

 

[CycloneEggie]

I found this article.

How the field of 68 DI men’s teams is picked for March Madness

The NCAA’s guide to how the 68 teams are chosen, seeded and bracketed for the Division I men's basketball tournament every season.

www.ncaa.com

It specifically says "the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first four lines at a potential “home-crowd disadvantage” in the first round." I'm guessing that eliminates Iowa State from Des Moines, unless they say that Des Moines is already a home court for Marquette, but I doubt thats true.

Another 3 seed that could get Des Moines is Gonzaga. Denver and Sacramento will likely be full before they get a spot.

Another line is this: "A team may be moved up or down one (or in extraordinary circumstances) two lines from its true seed line (e.g., from the 13 seed line to the 12 seed line; or from a 12 seed line to a 13 seed line) when it is placed in the bracket if necessary to meet the principles."

So based on that, if Iowa State was a 6 seed and theoretically should be in Des Moines, they would move them to a 5 or a 7 seed to accomodate.

So here is a hypothetical.
Baylor wins the Big 12 and becomes a 2 seed. Texas looses game 1 and becomes a 3 seed. Kansas State is a 3 seed. Kansas is a 1 seed. Lets say Kansas is in the Midwest, Baylor gets the West, Texas gets the South and Kansas State gets the East.

Iowa State can't be in the South or East because they can't match up with Texas or Kansas State in round 2.
Iowa State can't be in the West because they played Baylor 3 times and can't play them again until the elite 8.
Iowa State likely can't be in the Midwest as a 6 seed bec ause it would be a potential home-crowd disadvantage.
Iowa State likely either moves up to the 5 seed or down to a 7 seed.

Except this doesn't prevent ISU getting Des Moines as a 6 seed. They'd be playing an 11 in the first round.

This would be preventing a school like Drake or UNI (Assuming Drake isn't hosting Des Moines) getting placed as a 13, 14, 15, 16 vs a top 4 seed.

The second round of 32 they are not trying to protect the top 4 seeds

 

[Acer88]

Sign me up. This guy is one of the best at this. I know many want 4/5 but I like this draw

Bracketology: Heat Check CBB March Madness projections — Heat Check CBB

Heat Check CBB's Lukas Harkins is one of the most accurate bracketologists in the business. Check out his latest March Madness predictions.

heatcheckcbb.com

Like ISU draw, but in my opinion, all of his 5 and 6 seeds are better than Indiana.

 

[cyfan92]

Sign me up. This guy is one of the best at this. I know many want 4/5 but I like this draw

Bracketology: Heat Check CBB March Madness projections — Heat Check CBB

Heat Check CBB's Lukas Harkins is one of the most accurate bracketologists in the business. Check out his latest March Madness predictions.

heatcheckcbb.com

Marquette versus K-state to Des Moines will be one to watch.. If Marquette gets DSM, we could slide in to that 6 spot and have the chance to go DSM-KC.

Side note, how does Kentucky get a 5 when we get a 6?? We have 2 more Q1a wins, 3 more Q1 wins, and UK has 2 Q3 and a Q4 loss...

 

[clone52]

Except this doesn't prevent ISU getting Des Moines as a 6 seed. They'd be playing an 11 in the first round.

This would be preventing a school like Drake or UNI (Assuming Drake isn't hosting Des Moines) getting placed as a 13, 14, 15, 16 vs a top 4 seed.

The second round of 32 they are not trying to protect the top 4 seeds

Oh crap, good call. I'm an idiot.

I'd say its definitely in play then.

 

[clone52]

View attachment 110416

Marquette versus K-state to Des Moines will be one to watch.. If Marquette gets DSM, we could slide in to that 6 spot and have the chance to go DSM-KC

In that bracket, we'd also need to be ahead of Creighton on the 6 seed line to get Des Moines (if Marquette got it).

 

[NoCreativity]

Not if K-State is the 3 is DSM

I still think Marquette is better than K-State and deserves the 3 in Des Moines. I guess we'll find out in 6 days.

 

[cyfan92]

In that bracket, we'd also need to be ahead of Creighton on the 6 seed line to get Des Moines (if Marquette got it).

If Marquette is the 3, Creighton wouldn't get matched to another Big East team

 

[NiceMarmot]

In that bracket, we'd also need to be ahead of Creighton on the 6 seed line to get Des Moines (if Marquette got it).

We don't need to worry in that scenario as Creighton and Marquette wouldn't be placed together as 3/6 as they're in the same conference.

If we assume ISU is a 6 as of now, it's looking like ISU potential 2nd round matchup would likely be Marquette, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Indiana, or maybe UConn/Virginia/Arizona. I personally think Virginia highest seed possibility is 4, and I think Arizona would have to lose immediately in Pac-12 tournament for them not to be a 2. The committee would also try to avoid placing ISU and UConn in same pod if possible to avoid a 2nd round rematch.

If ISU goes up to a 5-seed, obviously the potential matchups would expand a lot more.

 

[bawbie]

Sign me up. This guy is one of the best at this. I know many want 4/5 but I like this draw

Bracketology: Heat Check CBB March Madness projections — Heat Check CBB

Heat Check CBB's Lukas Harkins is one of the most accurate bracketologists in the business. Check out his latest March Madness predictions.

heatcheckcbb.com

Absolutely, that's a dream bracket. Blake Hinson and Pitt in the 6/11 game (assuming they beat PSU) - then Marquette in DM - we should almost be favored to win that pod

Then Hunter waiting in KC in the Sweet 16!

 

[bawbie]

In that bracket, we'd also need to be ahead of Creighton on the 6 seed line to get Des Moines (if Marquette got it).

Kinda crazy that after we got "smoked" in the scrimmage against Creighton preseason that we are on that same seed line as them now

 

[Cyclonepride]

Kinda crazy that after we got "smoked" in the scrimmage against Creighton preseason that we are on that same seed line as them now

Also crazy that they worked themselves back from something like 9-9 to where they are now too.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Absolutely, that's a dream bracket. Blake Hinson and Pitt in the 6/11 game (assuming they beat PSU) - then Marquette in DM - we should almost be favored to win that pod

Then Hunter waiting in KC in the Sweet 16!

Pitt (see our old friend Hinson and prove to @Gunnerclone that's he's a real boy)
Marquette (another battle with a Wisconsin team in the Ro320
Texas (the rubber match/grudge match with Carr and Hunter)
Houston (the #1 team all season... but coming out of a weaker conference)

= quite the fun/interesting path if it goes that way

 

[WastedTalent]

Kinda crazy that after we got "smoked" in the scrimmage against Creighton preseason that we are on that same seed line as them now

They had a rough patch in December, but they could be scary team in the tournament

 

[Big_Sill]

IMO if were on the 4 or 5 line it's looking likely that Albany or Orlando are the two host options. If ISU is a 6 it opens up everything else including potentially DSM.

Help me out here, are you saying its possible that the committee would knowingly give a 6 seed a home game against a 3 seed in the 2nd round? I thought this was not allowed, or at least avoided at all cost.

 

[clone52]

I still think Marquette is better than K-State and deserves the 3 in Des Moines. I guess we'll find out in 6 days.

It'd depend on how they do in their conference tournaments. Every game will likely be Quad 1 for KSU. Marquette will start with a Quad 2 or Quad 3 game.

Right now, Marquette is Quad 4-3 in Quad 1a and 2-2 in Quad 1b. Kansas State is 4-5 in 1a and 5-2 in 1b.

Results based metrics are split. Predictive metrics favor Marquette slightly.

Kansas State has a harder SoS, but a far easier out of conference strength of schedule.

You could make arguments for either one of them really.

 

[clone52]

Help me out here, are you saying its possible that the committee would knowingly give a 6 seed a home game against a 3 seed in the 2nd round? I thought this was not allowed, or at least avoided at all cost.

Nope, their official language is first round only. I think the 6 seed locations would be purely based on other bracketing guidelines.

 

[ClonerJams]

Kinda crazy that after we got "smoked" in the scrimmage against Creighton preseason that we are on that same seed line as them now

Further evidence that secret scrimmage results are meaningless

 

[isufbcurt]

View attachment 110416

Marquette versus K-state to Des Moines will be one to watch.. If Marquette gets DSM, we could slide in to that 6 spot and have the chance to go DSM-KC.

Side note, how does Kentucky get a 5 when we get a 6?? We have 2 more Q1a wins, 3 more Q1 wins, and UK has 2 Q3 and a Q4 loss...

Kentucky's net is 19 and we (ISU) are 20

 

[Cyclonepride]

Kentucky's net is 19 and we (ISU) are 20

Still trying to figure that one out. Seems like they're benefiting from having a better quad 1/2 winning percentage (even though we have four games in those two quads) and evidently that is enough to offset the fact that they have a quad 3 and quad 4 loss?