2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

[NENick]

Considering my outlook at the start of the season, or maybe more accurately, after Portland, I thought the Cyclones would finish behind KU, BU, UT, and TCU.
Current record vs these 4: 5-2

Finish ahead of OSU, OU, TTech, WVU.
Record vs these 4: 2-6

KSU is an outlier. They've significantly exceeded expectations.

Those bottom 4 are pretty much who I thought they would be.

 

[dahliaclone]

Latest bracket projections...the consensus seems to be 6/7 still and this is all after the Grill news FYI. These are the ones you should be watching/paying attention to. Not Lunardi or Palm. Although Lunardi actually bumped us UP to a 6 today...

Bracketville (6)
HeatCheckCBB (7)
Delphi Bracketology (6)
Making the Madness (6)
BracketWag (6)

 

[Halincandenza]

Bracket Matrix has ISU as a 6.

 

[helechopper]

Seed, schmeed.

All I know is that I wouldn't want to play us, even 'Grill-less'.

 

[dahliaclone]

Lunardi still has TEN BIG TEN teams making it. lol

 

[Halincandenza]

Lunardi still has TEN BIG TEN teams making it. lol

That is insane. They would be putting teams in there in the 60-70 range on NET. I don't see that happening.

 

[dahliaclone]

That is insane. They would be putting teams in there in the 60-70 range on NET. I don't see that happening.

It makes no sense to have Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan all either IN or first four out and Oklahoma State is NEXT four out.

HeatCheckCBB is definitely more probable: He has 7 BIg Ten in with Wisconsin, PSU, and Mich all first four out or next four out.

 

[NiceMarmot]

My bracket projection for today heading into the weekend:



I also built a simple regression model this week based on the committee's final seed list from 2022. The projected seed list for that can be found in the Resumes tab in the link above. That regression model has Iowa State as the #30 overall team, which would equate to an 8-seed.

If anyone is curious, below is what this regression model would have predicted for the 2022 tournament and its misses compared to the NCAA committee's final seed list on Selection Sunday. That model would have correctly predicted Iowa State as an 11-seed last year (I personally had ISU as a 9-seed in my final projection last year).

 

[cyclones500]

My bracket projection for today heading into the weekend:

View attachment 110287

I also built a simple regression model this week based on the committee's final seed list from 2022. The projected seed list for that can be found in the Resumes tab in the link above. That regression model has Iowa State as the #30 overall team, which would equate to an 8-seed.

If anyone is curious, below is what this regression model would have predicted for the 2022 tournament and its misses compared to the NCAA committee's final seed list on Selection Sunday. That model would have correctly predicted Iowa State as an 11-seed last year (I personally had ISU as a 9-seed in my final projection last year).

View attachment 110288

Good work, again.

As for ISU's draw, as a 6, I wouldn't mind that whatsoever. It's maybe the second-least "scary" 11 seed in the scenario, the locale doesn't favor Marquette too heavily geographically, and it's KC Regional so if somehow survive first weekend, that's awesome.

Trivial side-note, I like the rhyme-factor in the East 5v12 -- TCU vs VCU. (I'm sure the committee will make accommodations to create such a matchup for potential word-geek storylines, in that regard! (JIMLAD, if that's necessary )

 

[Cyclonepride]

Good work, again.

As for ISU's draw, as a 6, I wouldn't mind that whatsoever. It's maybe the second-least "scary" 11 seed in the scenario, the locale doesn't favor Marquette too heavily geographically, and it's KC Regional so if somehow survive first weekend, that's awesome.

Trivial side-note, I like the rhyme-factor in the East 5v12 -- TCU vs VCU. (I'm sure the committee will make accommodations to create such a matchup for potential word-geek storylines, in that regard! (JIMLAD, if that's necessary )

I'd take Rutgers or Oral Roberts before Auburn

 

[Statefan10]

I'd take Rutgers or Oral Roberts before Auburn

Oh give me Rutgers. They just lost to Minnesota lol

 

[isufbcurt]

Auburn is tough, I don't want to play them

 

[dahliaclone]

Auburn is tough, I don't want to play them

Not sure I agree that they're that tough. But I agree probably don't want to play them.

They've lost their last 8 of 11. NET is 36. Only 2 Q1 wins.

 

[cyclones500]

I'd take Rutgers or Oral Roberts before Auburn

Rutgers does seem "easier" than Auburn. But I'd prefer not to face ORU or Charleston for possible 6/11 ... teams of that type with lots of wins, even though it's mid-major/"sub-mid."

Of course we have no right to be "picky" at this point.

 

[isufbcurt]

Not sure I agree that they're that tough. But I agree probably don't want to play them.

They've lost their last 8 of 11. NET is 36. Only 2 Q1 wins.

I watched them I few times and I think we'd really struggle with them.

 

[dahliaclone]

I watched them I few times and I think we'd really struggle with them.

Tough for us, I agree. I would pick an L for us. Overall they aren't anything great.

 

[madguy30]

Oh give me Rutgers. They just lost to Minnesota lol

Ha, I don't want any team that 'has been shooting bad lately', 'can't even beat X bad team' or 'is missing their best player'.

 

[Tacoclone]

28th to 21st in Kenpom following Baylor

 

[Sigmapolis]

@jereseib get in here and take your L.

 

[jctisu]

@jereseib get in here and take your L.

Remember he stopped watching weeks ago yet always seemed to know what was going on over the last month.