2019-2020 Computer Projections Thread

Discussion in 'Mens Basketball' started by Sigmapolis, Nov 5, 2019.

  1. HFCS

    HFCS Well-Known Member

    Aug 13, 2010
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    For such a supposedly horrible conference this year the first net ranking has 30% of the conference in the top 10 and 20% in the top 5.
     
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  2. cyclones500

    cyclones500 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I don't know how many posts I've read recently saying the Big 12 is way-down this season. It does appear unusually top-heavy, but right now there are three that'd be on top-3 seed lines, one ranging somewhere 4 to 6. The bottom half looks mushy, but still has computer numbers that balance eye-testing.
     
  3. VeloClone

    VeloClone Well-Known Member

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    When you are perennially the best league in the nation it is pretty easy to be down and still be a solid league.
     
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  4. CYcoFan

    CYcoFan Well-Known Member

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    This post hasn't and won't age well.

    Tom (jereseib) how did you come to the conclusion that ISU won't make the tourney? Did you use your jump to conclusions mat?

     
  5. madguy30

    madguy30 Well-Known Member

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    Without looking at the analytics, a lot of college basketball feels kind of 'mushy' all over.
     
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  6. Gunnerclone

    Gunnerclone Well-Known Member

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  7. megamanxzero35

    megamanxzero35 Well-Known Member

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    I think the 3 point line move has affected the game greater than they ever thought it would.
     
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  8. mkadl

    mkadl Well-Known Member

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    I am an Iowa State fan and I can't tell the difference.
     
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  9. megamanxzero35

    megamanxzero35 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure if this was serious or just joking about the poor percentage we have shot from 3.

    But just to give you a small sample of what I am talking about. Right now, Gonzaga leads the country in AdjO at 116.0.

    Last year they would be 18th with that number. 2018 they would be tied for 23rd. In 2017 they would be 29th.

    Last years Iowa State team finished 9th in the country in AdjO with 118.9. That would put them almost 3 full points above 1st this year.

    The longer 3s are making it harder to score and since guys aren't hitting them at a higher clip, teams are able to pack the paint more making it harder to get easy 2s. Jared had a tweet a few days ago and the scoring average is down and the worst it has been in a few years.
     
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  10. mkadl

    mkadl Well-Known Member

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    I miss the pirate, for this reason.
     
  11. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    Well, I think that game went about as most of us expected it to go. I will have some comments on the game in a second, but first the effect on our "place" (if you can call it that) on the bubble. It only hurt us a little bit, to be fair --

    upload_2020-1-16_10-8-43.png

    Texas Tech would be an excellent chance to pick up a resume-building win if we still have any chance, but we all know that is going to be a hard game in Lubbock. The game against Oklahoma State next week is a must-win.

    Now, onto last night and its game --

    upload_2020-1-16_10-10-12.png

    -- I was proud of how we kept it close the first half... the effort and the scheme was there, Haliburton was just missing shots...
    -- I think when Tre fouled their three-point shooter to end the half, I had a sinking feeling, and Baylor killed us with that flurry out of the half
    -- I do not know if Drew made some sort of schematic adjustment, but it felt more like just effort on Baylor's part to come out and bury us
    -- the box score for the two sides is really similar in a lot of ways -- similar EFG and TS, similar turnovers, all that, but there is just one big exception
    -- they murdered us on the offensive glass and second-chance points
    -- I cannot remember how many easy put-backs they had cleaning up the trash at the rim from their wobbly shooters, but that is what lost us the game
    -- otherwise an okay performance by us, but our rebounding is bad while Baylor is one of the elite rebounding teams in the country, and it showed
     
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  12. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    Another thing that I noticed --

    We are #42 on the "out" list of the bubble right now on Bart Torvik.

    upload_2020-1-16_11-16-54.png

    There are 32 teams in the NIT. Some of the slots are going to go to auto-bids for regular season champions who got their NCAA tournament bid sniped by somebody in their conference tournament. So that puts us...

    Roughly 10th to 15th on the NIT bubble right now, right?

    32 slots, minus a couple for teams as I described, then low bubble teams that make it into the NIT at least to salvage something for the season?
     
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  13. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    Also fun thing I noticed -- seeding lines of teams we've played so far.

    Oregon State = last four in, #11 in Dayton PIG
    Michigan = #6 seed
    Alabama = last four in, #11 in Dayton PIG
    Seton Hall = #2 seed
    Iowa = #5 seed

    We lost to good teams. We just lost a lot of games. :(

    And the Big 12 --

    #1 Kansas
    #1 Baylor
    #2 West Virginia
    #9 Texas Tech

    Ranking on the bubble...

    #5 Texas
    #15 Oklahoma
    #17 TCU
    #42 Iowa State
    #45 Oklahoma State
    #109 Kansas State

    The Big 12 is strong at the top but mushy at the bottom. It might only have 4-5 teams this season, depending on how it plays out in the middle.
     
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  14. Statefan10

    Statefan10 Well-Known Member

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    So you're saying right now we're in the NIT? Or if we aren't what number are we looking at to get there?
     
  15. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    I am saying right now we would *NOT* be in the NIT.

    I think you need to be roughly <25th on the bubble for that.

    32 teams minus at least a few auto-bids

    We are 42nd on the bubble right now, so we are probably out of that range.

    Somebody correct me if that intuition is wrong, but that seems sensible.
     
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  16. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    Further research --

    The last five years, the # of NIT auto-bids has been...

    10
    12
    10
    15
    12

    ...not the 7ish that I guessed.

    So we might need to be more like 20th (or better) on the bubble to make the NIT.

    We are presently 42nd.

    We got some work to do even for that.
     
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  17. cyclones500

    cyclones500 Well-Known Member

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    I posted this in the "Tournament Path" thread, too. It doesn't fit the computer projections theme, more like Computer Snapshot.

    NET rankings (thru 1-16) for ISU, ISU opponents #'s, head-to-head results, remaining schedule. I didn’t do a Quad summary for this update.

    69 Iowa State 8-8 (1-3 Big 12)

    1 L at Baylor
    2 L Kansas
    12 W Seton Hall
    12 L vs. Seton Hall
    28 L vs. Michigan
    29 L Iowa
    46 W vs. Alabama
    55 L at Oregon State
    58 W Oklahoma
    60 L at TCU
    207 W Northern Illinois
    272 W Kansas City
    260 L Florida A&M
    264 W Purdue Fort Wayne
    321 W vs. So. Miss
    348 W Mississippi Valley State

    Yet to face:
    1 Baylor
    2 at Kansas
    8 West Virginia H/A
    11 at Auburn
    32 Texas Tech H/A
    53 Texas H/A
    58 at Oklahoma
    60 TCU
    79 Oklahoma State H/A
    103 Kansas State H/A

    --> If we had been able to snag one or two more from the single-digit list (at Oregon State/at TCU at least are road wins and Quad-helpful) ... even if forced to eat the FAMU loss, we'd be somewhere near bubble conversation.

    "If only..."
     
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  18. Cyched

    Cyched Minister of Culture
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    Nice.
     
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  19. Gunnerclone

    Gunnerclone Well-Known Member

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    Nice
     
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  20. quasistellar

    quasistellar Active Member

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    Nice.
     
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