@Sigmapolis any insight as to what a win over SH would do for our tourney chances?
Bart Torvik's bracketology projections are weird because they project, "Would you make it if the selection show was
today?" rather than, "Given there are a lot of games to play and a lot of potential outcomes, where might you end up by March?"
Team Rankings is the latter. With it is mind that a lot could change going forward, we have roughly a 50-50 shot right now. However, if the tournament were to start this weekend, we would likely be out in the cold with our CV. We need more big wins.
Those two concepts converge and eventually equal each other towards the end of the season but, right now, the former has a very narrow set of results and the latter a very wide set. I think I can trick Bart Torvik into giving us an estimate, at least.
But you can kind of hybridize the two...
I told their model to assume we win against Seton Hall on Sunday.
That boosted our bid % around 11%.
So we probably go from roughly 52% to roughly 63% with a win.
If we 2-0 versus Seton Hall and Iowa...
We go from roughly 52% up to 76%.
If we drop both games, though...
Well, nothing good.