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MLB: 2015 Minnesota Twins thread

Twins are only .5 game closer to the 2nd wild card than they are to the bottom of the division.

Blue Jays are looking brilliant for their trade deadline action...
 
Yeah it was a fun ride, we just knew they'd wear out sooner or later. Could be wrong, but I don't see how they make the playoffs.
 
I just hope the Twins finally open up their pocketbook and pay for some decent starting pitching this off-season. I don't want them to trade prospects, and the sad reality is that they don't have any stud position players right now who would be worth trading (nobody's going to take Mauer's disgusting contract). But...I really don't understand Terry Ryan's obsession with guys who have 4.20+ career ERAs and are on the wrong side of 30, hoping they'll have some sort of turnaround in Minnesota. Pelfrey, Hughes, E.Santana, Nolasco, Carl Pavano, Jason Marquis, Kevin Correia...mediocre at best, terrible at worst.

The team needs an ace and should sign someone like David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, or Mat Latos (all free agents). Instead, they'll probably reel in some detritus like Ian Kennedy...or worse, serve us up some nostalgia trip like Scott Baker or Kyle Lohse. Kyle Gibson's good, but if he's the anchor of the rotation, that's bad. Trevor May/Alex Meyer don't look promising. Jose Berrios is a bright spot, but there's a lot of risk since he's yet to throw his first pitch in the majors.

The problem's the same as it's been ever since 2010...the starting pitching has been atrocious.
 
It doesn't look great, but there's still plenty of time to catch teams. I'm not counting on it, but baseball is such a game of streaks.

One thing I'll leery of is the rest of this month after the weekend series versus the Indians. On the road against the Yankees, Orioles and Rays and then back home versus the Astros. We really need to take care of these next few games, get on a roll and get a little swagger on offense again.

September and October (outside of a series against the Angels and another against the Astros) is all about the central.

I don't see any realistic way to catch the Royals, but the wildcard could still be had.



(disclaimer) Apparently pre-football optimism is rubbing off on my other sports interests. I strongly encourage you not to put any money on my likely misguided optimism.
 
roundball said:
Trevor May/Alex Meyer don't look promising.
Click to expand...

That's absurd. Trevor May was the Twins best starting pitcher.

Still is, despite the fact they sent him to the bullpen because they are afraid of another hissy fit from demoting Pelfry.

May was steadily improving in his first full season, and is one of the only SP on the Twins with stats suggesting the look of an avg or better SP going forward.

He's been one of the most promising developments this season.
 
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FDWxMan said:
That's absurd. Trevor May was the Twins best starting pitcher.

Still is, despite the fact they sent him to the bullpen because they are afraid of another hissy fit from demoting Pelfry.

May was steadily improving in his first full season, and is one of the only SP on the Twins with stats suggesting the look of an avg or better SP going forward.

He's been one of the most promising developments this season.
Click to expand...

Even if true (it's not), that's not saying much. The #4 or #5 pitchers on a lot of teams could be the Twins' best pitcher...they've had an ace-less staff since trading Liriano (who wasn't always ace material in Minnesota), and if Trevor May is the best they can do (he's not), then more mediocrity will ensue.

Curious why you're so much higher on May's upside than I am, though...I love that he's got good strikeout rates and doesn't walk a lot of batters, but he still gives up a lot of hits, and when he does, he seems to pitch terribly out of the stretch.
 
roundball said:
Even if true (it's not), that's not saying much. The #4 or #5 pitchers on a lot of teams could be the Twins' best pitcher...they've had an ace-less staff since trading Liriano (who wasn't always ace material in Minnesota), and if Trevor May is the best they can do (he's not), then more mediocrity will ensue.

Curious why you're so much higher on May's upside than I am, though...I love that he's got good strikeout rates and doesn't walk a lot of batters, but he still gives up a lot of hits, and when he does, he seems to pitch terribly out of the stretch.
Click to expand...

I never said May is the "best they can do." But he is still better than most, if not all of their current rotation.

You summed it up pretty good. High(er) strikeout rate, low walk rate is a damn good place to start for a starting pitcher profile. May is the only SP on staff with an above league avg K/9. Has also limited homers decently.

May's FIP is 3.16, over half a run under league average. Nobody else on the Twins is under 4. His xFIP is 3.86. That's about as promising as it gets on their current major league staff.

His hits allowed numbers were getting better as the year progressed, which would be expected for a guy coming into the season with fewer than 10 starts.

Side note, if you're worried about hits allowed, why would you say Kyle Gibson (pitch to contact disciple) is "good," yet Trevor May is not promising? May H/9 through 20 starts is pretty similar KG's, and is still improving (as did Gibson). Also, Gibson FIP is 4.10, xFIP 3.81.
 
Also, a late addition, May leads the Twins SP in Fangraphs' pitching WAR, with 1.8 in his 15 starts.

Kyle Gibson is second, accumulating 1.3 WAR in 23 starts.

#FreeTrevorMay
 
FDWxMan said:
I never said May is the "best they can do." But he is still better than most, if not all of their current rotation.

You summed it up pretty good. High(er) strikeout rate, low walk rate is a damn good place to start for a starting pitcher profile. May is the only SP on staff with an above league avg K/9. Has also limited homers decently.

May's FIP is 3.16, over half a run under league average. Nobody else on the Twins is under 4. His xFIP is 3.86. That's about as promising as it gets on their current major league staff.

His hits allowed numbers were getting better as the year progressed, which would be expected for a guy coming into the season with fewer than 10 starts.

Side note, if you're worried about hits allowed, why would you say Kyle Gibson (pitch to contact disciple) is "good," yet Trevor May is not promising? May H/9 through 20 starts is pretty similar KG's, and is still improving (as did Gibson). Also, Gibson FIP is 4.10, xFIP 3.81.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't go so far as calling Gibson a pitch-to-contact disciple...look at how his K/9 has risen every month this year. And I don't think the biggest issue with May is that he's put up poor numbers...it's that he's not dependable. He only made it to 7 innings in two of his 15 starts, and never further. When he'd put a runner on base, he was terrible due to the aforementioned issues pitching out of the stretch. Just look at his splits with runners on and in successive innings; the guy has some major consistency and reliability issues to work out, and the starting rotation isn't the place to do that.
 
Inconsistent? I think you're letting the memory of one or two outings skew your memory.

Regardless, a ROOKIE would be expected to show some inconsistency in his first 20 starts no?

Plus it's not like Gibson is the model of consistency either. Since June 1 and his shiny mid-2 ERA, he's had a 4.63 ERA, including 7.39 since the break. His ERA swings even more wildly, than "inconsistent May."

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 500, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]ERA by Month[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]April[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]May[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]June[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]July[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Aug[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Gibson[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4.84[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1.36[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4.70[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3.73[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6.11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]May[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4.43[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5.52[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3.70[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.87[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

If you throw May's one July start in with June to keep his relief numbers separate, the last three would be 3.23, 3.86, 0.00 (5 IP in Aug).

And nobody can tell me "the rotation isn't the place for that," Mike Pelfrey is still in the rotation for God's sake.
 
Fun discussion anyway. Putting Gibson aside, because I do think he is a useful piece, I'm just at a loss for how anyone thinks the Twins have five better options than the numbers below, being posted by a freaking ROOKIE.

Even if you do think they have five better options (they don't), calling a rookie doing this "not promising" is mind boggling.

A list of nine things in which Trevor May has been the Minnesota Twins best starter

  1. Wins above replacement
  2. Strikeouts
  3. Strikeouts per nine innings
  4. Strikeout percentage
  5. FIP
  6. xFIP
  7. SIERRA
  8. Contact percentage
  9. Swinging strike percentage
And that's not all. Here's a list of the top five most valuable rookie pitchers not just in the American League, but all of baseball.

  1. Trevor May, Minnesota - 1.7 fWAR
  2. Lance McCullers, Houston - 1.6
  3. Chris Heston, San Francisco - 1.6
  4. Noah Syndergaard, Mets - 1.4
  5. Nate Karns, Tampa Bay - 1.4
Click to expand...
http://www.twinkietown.com/2015/7/6/8900653/twins-make-mistake-in-sending-trevor-may-to-the-bullpen
 
FDWxMan said:
Fun discussion anyway. Putting Gibson aside, because I do think he is a useful piece, I'm just at a loss for how anyone thinks the Twins have five better options than the numbers below, being posted by a freaking ROOKIE.

Even if you do think they have five better options (they don't), calling a rookie doing this "not promising" is mind boggling.


http://www.twinkietown.com/2015/7/6/8900653/twins-make-mistake-in-sending-trevor-may-to-the-bullpen
Click to expand...

Nobody's saying Trevor May is dog meat, but I'm talking about him not being promising in the context of him becoming the staff ace that the Twins sorely need. He's got good strikeout rates, which is excellent news, but that's about it. Those WAR numbers aren't actually that great (leading other rookies by .1 point means almost nothing, even if you ignore a lot of WAR's flaws), and that he was leading the Twins in nine cherry-picked sabermetric stats means even less than his WAR.

Most people predict May's ceiling to be a solid mid-rotation guy; the Twins can't keep hanging their hat on guys like that combined with reclamation projects and hope to go far. They need legitimate #1 and #2 starters, like just about every other postseason team ever, if they expect to get back there and make a run.
 
Yeah, he's isn't going to be a number 1, but you're letting the perfect be the enemy of the good here. He's clearly one of the Twins 5 best starters, wherever you rank him and thus should be in the rotation.

And listing 12 or 13 things he's first or second in is not cherry picking. Finding one and eliminating him over it (H/9) more closely fits that definition.

In fact, by the end of the year, he will likely be 1 or 2 on the staff in just about every statistical category, including ERA.

Also sad that the rest of those rookies in the WAR list also rank ahead of every Twins SP other than May.

Enough of this though. Let's just bask in the awesomeness of Miguel Sano
 
Miguel Sano has 2 homers already tonight, the second of which landed in the third deck and travelled a measured 2,154 feet.

That is all.
 
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Haha. Crazy timing.

Trevor May has been freed. Hughes to DL, May to start on Friday.

Though this probably won't go particularly well at first now that May is not stretched out at all anymore. Probably be on a pitch count first couple starts.
 
FDWxMan said:
Haha. Crazy timing.

Trevor May has been freed. Hughes to DL, May to start on Friday.

Though this probably won't go particularly well at first now that May is not stretched out at all anymore. Probably be on a pitch count first couple starts.
Click to expand...

Yeah, even if we disagree on whether May was the right one to remove from the rotation, I would have rather seen him sent down to Rochester rather than the 'pen.
 
roundball said:
I wouldn't go so far as calling Gibson a pitch-to-contact disciple...look at how his K/9 has risen every month this year. And I don't think the biggest issue with May is that he's put up poor numbers...it's that he's not dependable. He only made it to 7 innings in two of his 15 starts, and never further. When he'd put a runner on base, he was terrible due to the aforementioned issues pitching out of the stretch. Just look at his splits with runners on and in successive innings; the guy has some major consistency and reliability issues to work out, and the starting rotation isn't the place to do that.
Click to expand...

Trevor May only made it to 7 innings in 2 of his first 25 starts of his career.
David Price only made to to 7 innings in 6 of his first 25 starts of his career.
CC Sabathia only made it to 7 innings in 4 of his first 25 starts of his career.
Clayton Kershaw only made it to 7 innings in 3 of his first 25 starts of his career.
Max Scherzer only made it to 7 innings in 3 of his first 25 starts of his career.
Johnny Cueto only made to to 7 innings in 6 of his first 25 starts of his career.
Jon lester only made it to 7 innings in 3 of his first 25 starts of his career.
 
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