Been a while since I logged in here (Coyote grad), but have attended quite a few Iowa State games as a former season ticket holder (first college game I ever went to a certain #15 ran all over Texas Tech).
Iowa State by the numbers and talent wise is the better team. I would argue they are better at USD at every position except for maybe RB (Carson Hansen is really really fun to watch and reminds me of Travis Theis our RB last year, but that's just how good I think Pierre Jr. is for USD) and maybe K (both are in the 70%).
I really think USD's offense will struggle Saturday. It's really difficult to face that Heacock 3-3 defense because nobody in the Missouri Valley runs a similar version of it. It was interesting to listen to his presser yesterday to talk about trying to prep for a team that you have no idea what you're going to see, given the transfer portal and trying to just guess when prepping. If Orange plays anywhere close to how he did Saturday it will be difficult for USD to move the ball absent total lapses in coverage. USD's offense is pretty unknown given they will be starting 4 new starters at OL, replacing a TE, and really only one WR that had significant playing time. Plus, Bouman has very limited mobility, but doesn't make the big mistake. I don't put a lot of stock in the change in OC or DC, the schemes will be extremely similar. It'll be interesting to see how Iowa State's defense looks facing their first actual quarterback this year.
If USD is going to have any success, I think it will be trying to make the Cyclone offense one dimensional because the ISU receiving core is relatively untested (could be weather related). USD will not win a shootout, but if it turns into a physical battle that's a 1-2 score game going into the second half, they have a shot. I think USD wants a game similar to UND last year.
I think CMC and the staff will be ready to go, but you just never know given the Ireland travel schedule. Listening to the pregame presser, it throws a wrench in place when it takes until roughly Wednesday for a lot of people to go back to normal. I think y'all could win this by 3+ scores, but who knows, it's college football.