2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

Die4Cy

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Jan 2, 2010
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I'd rather Iowa State play in Denver (which is in a Big XII State with easier tickets and more teams from even farther away) than in Milwaukee (which is in a B1G East City in a B1G State and a much tougher ticket for Cyclone fans). Neither are close enough or far enough away to make a serious distance impact, but the intangibles definitely favor Denver to me for the Cyclones. Just my onion.
A lot of Iowans live within 3.5 hours of Milwaukee, as Cyclone fans. For people in and around Dubuque, for example, Milwaukee is probably about the same time in the car as attending a game in Hilton in Ames.
 

cyfan92

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Sep 20, 2011
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I assume TJ wants Milwaukee and I want what TJ wants.. That said, the fan experience in Denver has about 10x the potential. Likely get to cheer for Arizona or Tech (Big 12) with an all-session pass.
 

Frak

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Apr 27, 2009
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Kind of playing into what they want us to do though. Everybody BYU plays usually plays straight up, and BYU uses their spacing and pick n roll to get layups or kick out 3s. They especially love the corner 3.

Facing Iowa St's traps, and no middle defense, is something different. Last year they proved able to still get good looks and score the ball against it. Otz doesn't like to stray to far from his bread n butter. Call it hard headed or stubborn, but he doesn't like to change alot.
I’m saying if you switch, it takes pick and roll off the table. I’m not afraid of their iso dribble penetration or their post up game. What I AM afraid of is ball reversal for open 3’s….either off of collapsing in the lane off pick and roll or from passing out of the trap. I think if you trap, you only help them score.
 

NWICY

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Sep 2, 2012
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I would put it this way - the two constants for this team (offensively) are FT shooting and offensive rebounding. The two variables are turnovers and 3-pt shooting. The first two are always there (or should be) - but the latter are the ones that determine winning / losing in many cases.

We are pretty much unbeatable if we shoot 50% from 3, I know that
This yrs mens team shots free throws ridiculously well. I love it!
 

NWICY

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Sep 2, 2012
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I kind of like the aspect of getting out of the area a bit maybe to limit distractions and that pressure to do well in the same region (midwest).

And, there's plenty of ISU fans in Colorado that would get to Denver aside from it being a pretty easy trip.
Long ass drive across Nebraska, but once you clear Lincoln it can be the speed limit +10 with no problem
 

NYCYFan

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Mar 18, 2024
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Some of these other 2's have taken some not so great losses. Purdue has lost 4 straight!
Yep, was thinking the same. A&M has fallen off a bit, Purdue has fallen off the map of a 2 seed possibility, Texas Tech really needed that win against Houston to have a chance at a 2, Wisconsin lost to Oregon and that's it really.

You've got Auburn, Duke, Florida, Alabama, Houston and Tennessee as a strong top 6, very strong top 6, and virtual locks as 1 and 2 seeds then you have.... Michigan State who has a weak OOC resume, Iowa State, Texas A&M and ??? St. John's? Eh, weak overall resume for the next 2 spots. The Cyclones are really in a great spot for a 2 seed even if they have one loss to a good team although a loss would muddy the waters.
 
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NYCYFan

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Purdue isn't really crashing, they have just gotten to the harder part of their schedule..

Since Wisconsin collapsed at home on Saturday, they really only have a road game in East Lansing to improve their seeding. Purdue has 2 Q1 games remaining, home UCLA on Friday and at Illinois to close the regular season.

The Big 10 team I am actually most concerned about jumping us is Michigan State.. They have 2 Q1a and two Q1 games remaining. They could easily jump ISU due to the B1G boner
Purdue got smacked by a mediocre Indiana, they're crashing.
 

NYCYFan

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Mar 18, 2024
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I haven't watched them much this year but last year they were also a bad match up with essentially a bunch of 2/3 type of guys that made it difficult for ISU's smaller guards.

The D isn't great but anyone can wratchet it up for a game or two after riding out their offense.
The difference between BYU last year and this year (depending on what one thinks of Jaxson Robinson) is that they have a top 10 NBA prospect running point for them now, really dangerous team peaking at the right time.
 
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Sigmapolis

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Yep, was thinking the same. A&M has fallen off a bit, Purdue has fallen off the map of a 2 seed possibility, Texas Tech really needed that win against Houston to have a chance at a 2, Wisconsin lost to Oregon and that's it really.

You've got Auburn, Duke, Florida, Alabama, Houston and Tennessee as a strong top 6, very strong top 6, and virtual locks as 1 and 2 seeds then you have.... Michigan State who has a weak OOC resume, Iowa State, Texas A&M and ??? St. John's? Eh, weak overall resume for the next 2 spots. The Cyclones are really in a great spot for a 2 seed even if they have one loss to a good team although a loss would muddy the waters.

Your "elite six" list is good.

You missed a few in contention, though...

Kentucky
Wisconsin
Arizona
Missouri
Texas Tech
Maryland

1740504845069.png
 

andybernard

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Oct 22, 2009
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Yep, was thinking the same. A&M has fallen off a bit, Purdue has fallen off the map of a 2 seed possibility, Texas Tech really needed that win against Houston to have a chance at a 2, Wisconsin lost to Oregon and that's it really.

You've got Auburn, Duke, Florida, Alabama, Houston and Tennessee as a strong top 6, very strong top 6, and virtual locks as 1 and 2 seeds then you have.... Michigan State who has a weak OOC resume, Iowa State, Texas A&M and ??? St. John's? Eh, weak overall resume for the next 2 spots. The Cyclones are really in a great spot for a 2 seed even if they have one loss to a good team although a loss would muddy the waters.

I'm going to put this prediction out there for no one but myself, but I'll say 5 of your top 6 will make the Sweet 16, 4 will make the Elite 8, 2 will make the Final 4, and the NCAA champion will come from this group.
 

CoachHines3

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Yep, was thinking the same. A&M has fallen off a bit, Purdue has fallen off the map of a 2 seed possibility, Texas Tech really needed that win against Houston to have a chance at a 2, Wisconsin lost to Oregon and that's it really.

You've got Auburn, Duke, Florida, Alabama, Houston and Tennessee as a strong top 6, very strong top 6, and virtual locks as 1 and 2 seeds then you have.... Michigan State who has a weak OOC resume, Iowa State, Texas A&M and ??? St. John's? Eh, weak overall resume for the next 2 spots. The Cyclones are really in a great spot for a 2 seed even if they have one loss to a good team although a loss would muddy the waters.

Your "elite six" list is good.

You missed a few in contention, though...

Kentucky
Wisconsin
Arizona
Missouri
Texas Tech
Maryland

View attachment 143939
1740505086119.png
1740505180035.png
 
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not-the-manager

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Mar 1, 2023
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Some of these other 2's have taken some not so great losses. Purdue has lost 4 straight!
This has all changed in the last ~week, but I think the only things that matter for ISU from here on out are 1. do you beat your remaining Q1 opponents and 2. how does Kansas State fare? None of the other teams vying for 2 seeds have losses nearly as bad as KSU. I've already ranted about what I think of MSU, but in addition to leading their conference, their brand/perception in the media will bolster their case for a 2. Kentucky is hurt and still has to play Auburn and Missouri. ISU beat Tech and plays Arizona again. So, if we slot in the top 6 + MSU, you absolutely still have a shot at a 2. But if KSU tanks you could be SOL (and, it goes without saying, you have to beat them the second time). Wisconsin is still sneaky to me, they're kind of getting killed by the media because they were expected to win Saturday, but Oregon isn't actually a bad loss
 

NYCYFan

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Mar 18, 2024
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Your "elite six" list is good.

You missed a few in contention, though...

Kentucky
Wisconsin
Arizona
Missouri
Texas Tech
Maryland

View attachment 143939
I mentioned Wisconsin and Tech. I think the Wisconsin loss to Oregon, I think that put them behind the 8 ball a bit. Tech is in the mix but I think they needed that extra quality win against Houston, the Missouri loss to Arkansas was damaging, Arizona has too many losses IMO same with Kentucky although with Kentucky being in the SEC they'll have opportunities, Maryland is a longshot.
Anything can happen but I think Michigan State and Iowa State are the favorites for those last two 2 seeds, Wisconsin, Tech, Kentucky and A&M in the next grouping. Still fluid but I love Iowa State's chances if they keep winning.