2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[Cloned4Life]

#47 defense on Torvik if you eliminate the last season/preseason effects.

This team could improve. It certainly has a championship-caliber offense.

But it hasn't proven it has a championship-caliber defense. Not by a long shot.

Curious - is there any way to see the Defensive Efficiency numbers from "December 25, 2023" (and 2022) to see where this group this year stacks up? I would be surprised if we are THAT much worse THIS year (defensively, so far) than we were at this point last year. I remember the chatter in the non-conference last year was around how we weren't going to be as strong defensively in the Big 12. We ended up as the #1 defense.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Can you filter it to just be our 5 quad 1 and 2 games?

I don't think the site has that feature, but I can do it manually quickly.

Adjusted points given up per 100 possessions (lower scores are better)

91.8 = Auburn
111.9 = Dayton
101.0 = Colorado
90.7 = Marquette
103.3 = Iowa

Adding them up = 498.7

Dividing by five = 99.74

That score would be tied with UC Davis for #80 on the Torvik rankings for defenses this season when you filter out any of the preseason effects. That Dayton game was especially egregious.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Curious - is there any way to see the Defensive Efficiency numbers from "December 25, 2023" (and 2022) to see where this group this year stacks up? I would be surprised if we are THAT much worse THIS year (defensively, so far) than we were at this point last year. I remember the chatter in the non-conference last year was around how we weren't going to be as strong defensively in the Big 12. We ended up as the #1 defense.

Start of season through Christmas Day…

Ranking of adjusted defensive efficiency

2021 = #3

2022 = #9

2023 = #5

2024 = #47

 

[FerShizzle]

I don't think the site has that feature, but I can do it manually quickly.

Adjusted points given up per 100 possessions (lower scores are better)

91.8 = Auburn
111.9 = Dayton
101.0 = Colorado
90.7 = Marquette
103.3 = Iowa

Adding them up = 498.7

Dividing by five = 99.74

That score would be tied with UC Davis for #80 on the Torvik rankings for defenses this season when you filter out any of the preseason effects. That Dayton game was especially egregious.

Don’t you have to weight the ADJOE of these teams though? The P5 teams we have played aren’t offensively challenged chumps.

Auburn is #1 at 132.4 for a difference of 40+. That seems like a huge defensive output?

Dayton is #19 at 118.7 for a difference of nearly 7. Is that really that bad?

 

[NENick]

Torvik and KenPom and the like adjust for the quality of offense you played when making these ratings. Holding a juggernaut like Auburn to 50 is much more impressive than doing the same to some helpless Florida A&M type.

I think the ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent so even ISU wins a game over a bad offense there could still be signs of not great defense.

Understood and I appreciate the clarification. Has the defensive rating been more affected by the 5 Q1/2 games or giving up a lot of points to bad teams in blow out wins?

 

[AuH2O]

Yes it has. Filter out preseason bias. Barely top 50. Bad for what we want to achieve.

Good point. I figured last years results were mostly baked out by now, but that’s still a big impact.

I don’t think ISU is going to be as good defensively as last year. Rob and Ward were incredible at trapping and switching to stay in front of guards. The presidents don’t have their quickness or experience yet.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Don’t you have to weight the ADJOE of these teams though? The P5 teams we have played aren’t offensively challenged chumps.

Auburn is #1 at 132.4 for a difference of 40+. That seems like a huge defensive output?

Dayton is #19 at 118.7 for a difference of nearly 7. Is that really that bad?

The ADJDE on Torvik already does this computation. That wasn’t the “raw” per 100 but rather adjusted for the quality of the offense the Cyclones were trying to stop that day.

 

[Cloned4Life]

Start of season through Christmas Day…

Ranking of adjusted defensive efficiency

2021 = #3

2022 = #9

2023 = #5

2024 = #47

WOW. Thanks for sharing.

Very interesting. I honestly cannot believe that.

I sincerely thought that LAST year especially we were NOT good defensively early in the year.

Because these are already adjusted for the offenses we have played this year, that is a bit concerning to see us THIS low. I would have thought we were still top 20.

 

[bawbie]

We didn't stomp the flaming bags of poop like we did last year.

We did - we just did it with offense instead of defense

 

[Sigmapolis]

Just as a little demonstration of Torvik's adjustments for opponent quality...



Holding Auburn to 81 in 71 possessions is more impressive than holding Dayton to 84 in 69.

 

[NATEizKING]

We did - we just did it with offense instead of defense

Last year we covered all those 30+pt spreads

 

[NorthCyd]

Last year we covered all those 30+pt spreads

That's great and all, but I'm not convinced that beating a bad team by 30 instead of 20 is always the best measure of how good a team is at winning a competitive game against a good team. Case in point: Iowa. They excel at blasting bad competition, which explains why they are often analytics darlings, but suck when it really matters.

 

[cyfanbr]

That's great and all, but I'm not convinced that beating a bad team by 30 instead of 20 is always the best measure of how good a team is at winning a competitive game against a good team. Case in point: Iowa. They excel at blasting bad competition, which explains why they are often analytics darlings, but suck when it really matters.

For me is more about that final four teams are usually top 20 on both metrics. Not that I think it’s final four our bust, but oh my the things I would do for a final four.

 

[FinalFourCy]

WOW. Thanks for sharing.

Very interesting. I honestly cannot believe that.

I sincerely thought that LAST year especially we were NOT good defensively early in the year.

Because these are already adjusted for the offenses we have played this year, that is a bit concerning to see us THIS low. I would have thought we were still top 20.

You thought we were NOT good on defense early last year??

Regardless, this year I think most reasonable fans realized a step back on defense, at least initially, would occur after losing the three super-seniors in the front court that had a lot of experience playing under this staff.

I expect/hope we improve as the season goes on. Ward started to get it late his first year imo.

 

[cyclones500]

Do you think our D rating can rise during conference, due in part to relative competition?

Obviously we couldn’t expect metric to improve if we’re allowing 80 ppg or something, but curious how realistic it is to climb into top 20 territory.

 

[NorthCyd]

For me is more about that final four teams are usually top 20 on both metrics. Not that I think it’s final four our bust, but oh my the things I would do for a final four.

Well, good news, we are top 20 in Kenpom, and that's the one I always see cited for that stat.

 

[cyfanbr]

Well, good news, we are top 20 in Kenpom, and that's the one I always see cited for that stat.

Agreed. Just need for it to hold, which right bow it sounds like it is trending the wrong direction. Lots of basketball to play still and I am excited to watch every minute of this season.

 

[NorthCyd]

Agreed. Just need for it to hold, which right bow it sounds like it is trending the wrong direction. Lots of basketball to play still and I am excited to watch every minute of this season.

It was top 10 before Morgan State. I understand they werent great on D for that game, but it was still one game that ISU won easily. I get it's tempting to play the "if you remove pre-season weighting" game, but there is a reason models don't do that. 11 games, many of which are lopsided against bad teams, is not a lot of data points. Plus teams with some important new pieces, like Iowa State, take some time to round into form. This coaching staff knows how to coach defense and I am confident they will continue to improve in that area as the season goes along.

 

[Cloned4Life]

You thought we were NOT good on defense early last year??

Regardless, this year I think most reasonable fans realized a step back on defense, at least initially, would occur after losing the three super-seniors in the front court that had a lot of experience playing under this staff.

I expect/hope we improve as the season goes on. Ward started to get it late his first year imo.

Yeah, I wasn’t impressed with our defense early in the year last year. Particularly coming out of the Florida tourney. I certainly did NOT think we would finish as the #1 defense in the country. Is that really an outlandish statement? Did you read these boards in November/December last season? I would wager many worried our defense “wouldn’t be as strong as the year before” early last year. And yes, that factors in Ward’s injury. But we didn’t know how he’d fit back in post return from injury either.

Did you? Without seeing the metrics, anecdotally did you think we were ELITE defensively (or even very good) in the non-conference last year?

And I agree with you that most reasonable fans thought we would take a step back defensively this year. How would we be able to stay at #1!?
I certainly hope you’re not suggesting that I’m not one of those ‘reasonable’ fans (because - hey, it’s Christmas, I’m going to give myself the benefit out the doubt today!)

I also don’t think the ‘step back’ means we’ll be 47th in defense by end of season. If we remain that low (efficiency-wise), I’ll consider that a major step back, a much bigger step back than I would have thought possible under TJ. And to even counterpoint myself - if we stay a top 5 offensive efficiency team - I would consider that a much bigger step forward than I would have thought possible under TJ. Which is awesome.

So yeah, anything can happen, but I’m hopeful we’re going to be much, much better defensively the next couple months.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Yeah, I wasn’t impressed with our defense early in the year last year. Particularly coming out of the Florida tourney. I certainly did NOT think we would finish as the #1 defense in the country. Is that really an outlandish statement? Did you read these boards in November/December last season? I would wager many worried our defense “wouldn’t be as strong as the year before” early last year. And yes, that factors in Ward’s injury. But we didn’t know how he’d fit back in post return from injury either.

Did you? Without seeing the metrics, anecdotally did you think we were ELITE defensively (or even very good) in the non-conference last year?

And I agree with you that most reasonable fans thought we would take a step back defensively this year. How would we be able to stay at #1!?
I certainly hope you’re not suggesting that I’m not one of those ‘reasonable’ fans (because - hey, it’s Christmas, I’m going to give myself the benefit out the doubt today!)

I also don’t think the ‘step back’ means we’ll be 47th in defense by end of season. If we remain that low (efficiency-wise), I’ll consider that a major step back, a much bigger step back than I would have thought possible under TJ. And to even counterpoint myself - if we stay a top 5 offensive efficiency team - I would consider that a much bigger step forward than I would have thought possible under TJ. Which is awesome.

So yeah, anything can happen, but I’m hopeful we’re going to be much, much better defensively the next couple months.

Recall you posted:
“I sincerely thought that LAST year especially we were NOT good defensively early in the year.”

NOT good


You didn’t say “not elite”.

There’s never been a time under TJ in which I thought the defense was NOT good. I can’t remember thinking they even weren’t very good (top-40).

At this time last year I thought they were very good, maybe elite, based on both metrics and eye test. Bob Jones and Ward in particular looked elite in the front court, better than the year prior, doing traps/switches from the front court few can match

The past few offseason there’s been discussion on the merits of sacrificing some defense. I don’t know if this occurring this year was desired by the staff, but it was predictable/expected as we replace the frontcourt.